I went to Exel and have posted the whole damned sheet! Never mind, I think I got the complete chart over this time. I went to Paint at first but it seemed to be too small. Are you receiving it OK, now? As a moderator, I'll ask you to clean up after me, if possible, by removing the bad chart.
Split
Split
mr.marcus said:
Hi, mr.marcus.,
Have been having some "technical" problems of another kind.
I can identify the breakouts in hindsight but, at the time it happens I trade it as a pullback. Maybe I am not giving the action enough time to develope. I'm not too bad at trading pullbacks but feel that I could do much better.
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barjon
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split
hurrah :cheesy:
I think it depends how you determine trend. What works for me is assuming a trend to be in force until the last swing low/high is breached which I regard as signalling a potential trend change which is confirmed by the next re-action failing to reach earlier highs/lows. On the attached chart my trend changed to down at the first circle - subsequent re-actions regarded as pullbacks (green lines) until one went at the second circle changing the trend back to up. Subsequent re-actions (blue lines) all regarded as pullbacks.
Thus, I see wpp currently as having completed a pullback which will be confirmed if it goes on to new highs and will trade on that basis (already long from friday) until told otherwise.
A more detailed look would, of course, throw up a number of false starts and potential trend changes resulting in losing trades. Hope this helps - there are probably much more expert answers.
good trading
jon
hurrah :cheesy:
I think it depends how you determine trend. What works for me is assuming a trend to be in force until the last swing low/high is breached which I regard as signalling a potential trend change which is confirmed by the next re-action failing to reach earlier highs/lows. On the attached chart my trend changed to down at the first circle - subsequent re-actions regarded as pullbacks (green lines) until one went at the second circle changing the trend back to up. Subsequent re-actions (blue lines) all regarded as pullbacks.
Thus, I see wpp currently as having completed a pullback which will be confirmed if it goes on to new highs and will trade on that basis (already long from friday) until told otherwise.
A more detailed look would, of course, throw up a number of false starts and potential trend changes resulting in losing trades. Hope this helps - there are probably much more expert answers.
good trading
jon
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barjon said:
I have an idea that your last paragraph about the false starts is the key to my performance. For years, I've always considered myself to be, and been content to be, a position trader working on EOD charts. Lately, I've been changing my tactics to watching intra-day charts and I'm getting too many false trades.
As it happens, I opened a long trade with WPP on Friday.
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barjon
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Splitlink said:
split
Aye, I've got that same T-shirt sitting in the drawer
I work off EOD charts as well, but I can't resist peering in at the intraday which doesn't improve matters. I've even given up using intraday in attempts to "fine tune" entries and exits - just stick the orders in from EOD and takes what comes.
Works best when I then go off to play golf or something, but I still lose discipline occasionally when I'm sat in front of the screen. That got a bit easier when I opened a "play" account a few years ago which I use for intraday focussed tinkering - mind you it does need topping up from time to time
good trading
jon
Split,
I've rubbed your some of your comments to make way for mine. I've not got the precision of Mr Marcus. I work rough and ready based on what I see as change of sentiment.That's all I look for and the right potential for risk to reward. Hope my comments help you. You will have to switch between my chart and your chart as I have deliberately blanked and signalled the key area for a patient set up. LOL excuse the spelling..sunday mornings for you !
Edit..for clarity...my reference to "heavier vol ,or choppy action on pullback"...the pullback I was referring to was your "final pullback in the downtrend" and not the set up pullback after you identified the change in sentiment. Heavier or more choppy action in your final pullback would have had me believing the range issue was yet to be resolved so I would have gone away until it did resolve itself.
I've rubbed your some of your comments to make way for mine. I've not got the precision of Mr Marcus. I work rough and ready based on what I see as change of sentiment.That's all I look for and the right potential for risk to reward. Hope my comments help you. You will have to switch between my chart and your chart as I have deliberately blanked and signalled the key area for a patient set up. LOL excuse the spelling..sunday mornings for you !
Edit..for clarity...my reference to "heavier vol ,or choppy action on pullback"...the pullback I was referring to was your "final pullback in the downtrend" and not the set up pullback after you identified the change in sentiment. Heavier or more choppy action in your final pullback would have had me believing the range issue was yet to be resolved so I would have gone away until it did resolve itself.
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chump said:
Hi Chump,
Thanks for the post. I have had indifferent success in entering volume activity into my price calculations. Sometimes there is a spike on a breakout and sometimes there isn't. In my case, it seems that I am better off trading without it. You have pointed out the fact that WPP had heavy volume on a breakout at that point and that has stirred my interest in volume again
but I have no high hopes of it being more than a coincidence.
Personally, I believe that it is all in the interpretation of price action but I shall observe with interest next week.
What do you think of WPP's Friday price? There was more volume on Thursday than Friday,
but the breakout was on Friday. Does that mean lack of follow through?
Good trading
Split
Split,
LOL.."You have pointed out the fact that WPP had heavy volume on a breakout at that point and that has stirred my interest in volume again" ...if you reread that is not what I said..
Look again again at your chart. I simply said heavier volume came when price went below the 550 range and the result of that was price started moving back up...as it did so on what you labelled the "final pullback in a downtrend" the volume tapered off and price continued to move up to 575 range in a uni drectional manner...in other words nobody was interested in selling. Compare that to what happened on the "pullbacks" you had previously labelled and I find it shouts at me that there's been a change in sentiment ..they have probably now decided as far as that range goes which direction they will use to resolve it...up ...after that it is down to finding which point you wish to set up.
Regarding your question re Friday...I don't look at volume usually in an isolated manner one day only and if you are trying to do that may be that's why it has not worked for you.Perhaps somebody out there can make precise sense out of one day's volume ,but it is not me and frankly I don't actually see any need to try with just a couple of exceptions..LOL there's always exceptions .All I see in the bar "whats this" is a strong finish indicating confidence...end of week move increases that confidence in my view ...light vol would be ok..again indicates no one is fighting the move ...,but all of this is taking part in a wider context isn't it...price has been creeping up albeit indecisively..this day's move just invalidated a recent down channel. I know what I would do ,but LOL you should make up your mind.
LOL.."You have pointed out the fact that WPP had heavy volume on a breakout at that point and that has stirred my interest in volume again" ...if you reread that is not what I said..
Look again again at your chart. I simply said heavier volume came when price went below the 550 range and the result of that was price started moving back up...as it did so on what you labelled the "final pullback in a downtrend" the volume tapered off and price continued to move up to 575 range in a uni drectional manner...in other words nobody was interested in selling. Compare that to what happened on the "pullbacks" you had previously labelled and I find it shouts at me that there's been a change in sentiment ..they have probably now decided as far as that range goes which direction they will use to resolve it...up ...after that it is down to finding which point you wish to set up.
Regarding your question re Friday...I don't look at volume usually in an isolated manner one day only and if you are trying to do that may be that's why it has not worked for you.Perhaps somebody out there can make precise sense out of one day's volume ,but it is not me and frankly I don't actually see any need to try with just a couple of exceptions..LOL there's always exceptions
.All I see in the bar "whats this" is a strong finish indicating confidence...end of week move increases that confidence in my view ...light vol would be ok..again indicates no one is fighting the move ...,but all of this is taking part in a wider context isn't it...price has been creeping up albeit indecisively..this day's move just invalidated a recent down channel. I know what I would do ,but LOL you should make up your mind.