Trading with p/f

This is a discussion on Trading with p/f within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Well folks now you have all learnt the p/f methodology...we must move further on and put up some trades. These ...

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Old Feb 17, 2014, 11:32am   #1
 
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Trading with p/f

Well folks
now you have all learnt the p/f methodology...we must move further on and put up some trades.
These are going to be charts with POSSIBLE trade setups
we are breakout traders...nothing more
so..we are trading only the breakout..but we can get caught in traps,but..we will try like hell to avoid them
i will have no responsibility for anybodys trades
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Old Feb 17, 2014, 11:45am   #2
 
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dentist007 started this thread first trade of the day
cable/gbpusd
short trade
from looking at the line chart first and then going to p/f.my own visual optimisation of the price action would have come from the 10 min data
this was to show the final push upwards/spike and then the consolidation,which then gave us a triple bottom sell..note that the green trend had just about been taken out
data was from 14 feb.ie 2days
we dont want to crowd the chart with too many trends and signals
box setting was 5pips by 2 reversal hilo plot
entry was at 1.6765
targets are always 5 box ish..
reason..you get 5 boxes..usually before market recoils,,so you dont want to hang around in the recoil

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as mentioned on another thread...i got up too late to trade this setup..but in future..i will be posting potentiall trades..ie we want to identify the breakout point and get set up on the other side of the pattern..that keeps the stop tighter..but the reward is higher.it is a bit riskier to do this..if we are careful,then we wont get mugged too often
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Old Feb 17, 2014, 11:51am   #3
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Should be a good thread !

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Old Mar 9, 2014, 9:10am   #4
 
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dentist007 started this thread spot oil..wti
hourly
dots are the close..less noise than a candlestick
when we see any chart..first thing to do is to divide the chart into bullish and bearish sections using trendlines


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Old Mar 9, 2014, 9:14am   #5
 
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dentist007 started this thread here is the chart
note it is bullish

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Old Mar 9, 2014, 9:45am   #6
 
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dentist007 started this thread so..from that we have the basis for a p/f chart
we have put in 7cent by 1 reversal p/f chart
why..
cos we wanted to replicate the line chart as far as possible..this gives us a starting point for the p/f box size and reversal
note we have not loaded up too much data....as all we want to see is the latest trends and do our analysis on that

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Old Mar 9, 2014, 9:57am   #7
 
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dentist007 started this thread then..keeping the same box size and reversal
we go to the hilo plot of the data
note..that we have a multitude of interesting areas

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yellow horizontals are res
aqua horizontal is supp
red..trend res
and green is trend supp as defined by the chart method of construction
so..going into next week...we have a good feel of where supp and res might lie
price is in an intermed downtrend with a recoil upwards..the lates green trendline
now..the $64,000 dollar question ??
does the downtrend resume or that minor uptrend gain momentum
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Old Mar 9, 2014, 10:08am   #8
 
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dentist007 started this thread a quick look around other time input and box sizes to see if we can get more information
15 min time input
25 cents by 2 reversal
hilo plot

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now we are at a prev supp area/purple horizontal and a double-top breakout

this area could be strong res
so we need to look at the other side of the pattern to look for clues if this breakout will fail
so..from this chart we have trend res/red and prev supp/purple
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Old Mar 9, 2014, 10:15am   #9
 
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dentist007 started this thread the last chart
we have added the horizontal supp/yellow
and..
the aqua line...this is where the price action turns negative..ie a double-bottom pattern
the bulls can be in that area aswell
note laso prev breakout point/orange aswell as horizontal supp lower


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Old Mar 9, 2014, 10:17am   #10
 
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dentist007 started this thread hopefully..we will update the charts tomorrow at euro open and look at the price action
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Old Mar 13, 2014, 1:48pm   #11
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dentist007 View Post
hopefully..we will update the charts tomorrow at euro open and look at the price action
forgot to update the oil chart on monday
but from this chart you can see the price action clearly,including the signals to trade

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Old Mar 30, 2014, 10:00am   #12
 
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dentist007 started this thread Dax cash index into next week
60 min data for the month of March
showing 2 trends
the uptrend that began on 14 march is coming up against horizontal res/purple
these are at 9600 and 9670 area
main supp area starts at breakout point/yellow horizontal at 9486 area
trend support/green in 9450 area
the second phase of the uptrend is green
so..now we have a fix on where supp and res might lie


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Last edited by dentist007; Mar 30, 2014 at 10:03am.
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Old Mar 30, 2014, 11:23am   #13
 
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dentist007 started this thread so..we have mapped out the important areas from the 60 min data
in order to daytrade we want to take a closer look
the uptrend from 14 March had 2 moves with a wide consolidation.On any chart,if there is a wide consolidation,it is important to keep each trend separate.Especially with p/f as you will be 'curve fitting ' the box size and reversal to incorporate 2 separate trends which both have different volatility
so we look at the latest push upwards..as it is of short duration at this point we go down to 15 minute data..that trend started on 24 march

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From this chart we can see trend supp..horizontal supp and of course we have those big horizontal res on the 60 min
depending on the news..price could break above those horiz res or possibly better is a bounce off and test supp...then we need to see the reaction/signals in supp
We dont want to waste our money on trading coaches/mentors,we just want to get in from 1/5 min signals and trade
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Old Mar 30, 2014, 11:38am   #14
 
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dentist007 started this thread moving around box/reversal size,we can see where the trendline cluster/big supp should be if that uptrend gets tested approx 948 area
so now we have the horizontal res and the bigger supp area marked

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looks to need to stay above 9500 to remain bullish
Thats it...i will be passing round a hat for donations...lol
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Old Mar 30, 2014, 5:31pm   #15
 
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dentist007 started this thread a quick look at spx futures into the open
looks a bit negative
30 min data
tClick the image to open in full size.


trend and horizontal supps shown
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