how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

This is a discussion on how to understand the reliability of a bull candle? within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; dotcom, Your questions are ill-defined and impossibly open to the point of being meaningless, so you won't get far asking ...

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Old Aug 15, 2012, 12:10pm   #8
 
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Re: how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

dotcom,
Your questions are ill-defined and impossibly open to the point of being meaningless, so you won't get far asking here.

If you want to learn about candles etc. go to:

Introduction to Candlesticks - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

Support and Resistance - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

and learn for yourself.

Hope that helps,
Richard
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Old Aug 15, 2012, 12:12pm   #9
 
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Re: how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
You read books on TA. I don't think that you have done that or you would not have offended Rathbone's intelligence with that sort of question. Ask him something that he can answer!
You're showing your age, Split...........he isn't called Basil........
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Old Aug 15, 2012, 12:33pm   #10
 
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Re: how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

Elementary !
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Old Aug 16, 2012, 5:04am   #11
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Re: how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

dotcom started this thread i thought there would be some form of reliable prediction, not just some randomness. It kind of seems like the theory of probability. It's hard to accept that the market is completely random. Is their not some fixed set up? some way of sure prediction, other than its bad habits?

after i asked this question, i started reading more on charts, so far i only know what each candles mean. But have yet to understand how to predict the next move. What does last weeks ups and downs have to do with predicting today's moves? (i think i get it now) is it just a manipulation? if things are based on fundamentals, why not just give good word and keep things up?
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Old Aug 16, 2012, 3:57pm   #12
 
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Re: how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

It's been a while since I have posted but I needed time to test before I would be able to contribute. I was extremely hopeful that I could swing trade Nasdaq stocks with candles as my in and out signals along with a variety of other technicals and so I programmed a fairly elaborate system and backtested many setups. I was trying to profit from direction changes. I discovered that it is possible to eek out some money from the method but the drawdowns are killer and I couldn't take the heat.

Along the way I found out that trades a little longer and following established trends fits my ulcer better. I use my candle knowledge to see signs of trend degradation but my entry and exists are based on pivot lines and MAs now. I usually beat the candles to the punch this way. Best of luck to you all.
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Old Aug 16, 2012, 5:27pm   #13
 
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Re: how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dotcom View Post
i thought there would be some form of reliable prediction, not just some randomness. It kind of seems like the theory of probability. It's hard to accept that the market is completely random. Is their not some fixed set up? some way of sure prediction, other than its bad habits?

after i asked this question, i started reading more on charts, so far i only know what each candles mean. But have yet to understand how to predict the next move. What does last weeks ups and downs have to do with predicting today's moves? (i think i get it now) is it just a manipulation? if things are based on fundamentals, why not just give good word and keep things up?
I gather from your writing that English is not your first language but I think you are asking why you cannot predict the future from past candle formations ?
The honest answer is that if "we" knew, how to do that, we would all be rich.
The past is no guarantee of the future. We see a candle shape (pick one) and guess a direction. Sometimes it works; sometimes not : Hence stop losses.
Add psychology, favoured approaches, various technical approaches, variance of opinion among traders, lultz, con artists, and you will realise that trading is not something you pick up by osmosis but by actually doing and moulding yourself to a trading approach. This is only a portion of why candles or pitchforks do not make everyone rich but at this point I have lost interest and need some food.
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Old Aug 16, 2012, 5:32pm   #14
 
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Re: how to understand the reliability of a bull candle?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dotcom View Post
i thought there would be some form of reliable prediction, not just some randomness. It kind of seems like the theory of probability. It's hard to accept that the market is completely random. Is their not some fixed set up? some way of sure prediction, other than its bad habits?

after i asked this question, i started reading more on charts, so far i only know what each candles mean. But have yet to understand how to predict the next move. What does last weeks ups and downs have to do with predicting today's moves? (i think i get it now) is it just a manipulation? if things are based on fundamentals, why not just give good word and keep things up?
There is a way to determine reliability (although never certainty), but it's not something you can extract from the one candle itself. You need to know so much more. And even if you can get to that point where you can know reasonably well which to take and which to not take, you'll still have a mammoth task of exits to deal with.
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