Speculators Increase Euro Short Positions, COT Report 15th May 2012 Reveals

This is a discussion on Speculators Increase Euro Short Positions, COT Report 15th May 2012 Reveals within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; It was an active week for euro traders. The total size of the speculator short in the euro versus the ...

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Old May 22, 2012, 8:46am   #1
 
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Speculators Increase Euro Short Positions, COT Report 15th May 2012 Reveals

It was an active week for euro traders. The total size of the speculator short in the euro versus the USD increased to 219,642 contracts, up from 183,685 in the previous week.

When the large short euro/long USD position is removed from the mix, the net USD position against the rest of the market is only a 10K long. The total net USD long when compiled it is 228,774, up from 138,231 in the previous period. Speculators are holding big short USD long GBP positions, 47,668 contracts, and a big long in the C$, 67,953 contracts.

Some of the currency markets are showing signs of liquidation, for example the pound yen and the A$, but not the euro. With the very large spec short position in the euro, will there not come a time when European politicians will present another euro saving measure? When that happens a short covering rally might be explosive.

US Dollar Index: There was over a 20% increase in the OI, caused primarily by the large specs increasing their long positions. Even after their purchases they remain less than a 2 to 1 long. The small spec is better than a 3 ratio long, but is not a big player in this market.

Euro (EUR/USD): Large specs continued to add to their short position in the euro. The total OI is quite large, over 420K contracts. The spreading (usually options activity was up10.8K of delta adjusted positions. The large spec is now a 5 ratio short and the small spec is a 2 to 1 short.

British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): The OI remains elevated, perhaps because specs are considering the pound, a safe haven from the turmoil in the eurozone. Large specs are just a bit shy of to to 1 ratio long, and the small spec is a touch over the 2 to 1 ratio. There was a very small reduction in the total pound spec long.

Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): The Japanese specs continues trying the short side of the yen versus the broiler. Both size specs are about a 3 to 1 short in the yen. The market has not been kind to the shorts, so far.

Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): The Swiss National Bank has vowed to keep the SF at 1.20 to the euro. Consequently when the euro tanks, the SF has been doing the same, going gown practically in lock step with the euro. Like the euro, the OI in the SF has been appreciating as the euro sells off.

Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): Large specs remain about a 4 ratio long the currency and the small specs are a little less than a 2 to 1 long. The C$ is the one currency specs have major longs, a position that has not worked in their favor.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): Some of the specs have been frightened by news from China, that China may perhaps be having a further economic slowdown. Trade in this small market has contracted, and there are few reminders that China has a presence in this area.

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): The total spec long has been going down. In the last report we have large specs are now only long 4.5K contracts, but the small spec is short, about 5,500 contracts. The A$ has lost its popularity and sponsorship.

Last edited by barjon; May 22, 2012 at 9:49am. Reason: removed links
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Old May 22, 2012, 9:15am   #2
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Re: Speculators Increase Euro Short Positions, COT Report 15th May 2012 Reveals

I found the delineation of commercial and non-commercial and reportable/non-reportable has blurred in recent years to the extent that COT, which used to be a fairly solid indicator of professional and commercial bias is far less so these days. Does anyone share that view or am I howling into a lonely night sky?
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Old May 22, 2012, 8:51pm   #3
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Re: Speculators Increase Euro Short Positions, COT Report 15th May 2012 Reveals

I researched it for a while but eventually I threw it and many other things back in the pot as my trading was paralyzed by a multitude of contradicting messages and signals

back to basics now like most of you guys........the rest is noise

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Old Jul 10, 2012, 2:46pm   #4
Joined Jul 2012
Re: Speculators Increase Euro Short Positions, COT Report 15th May 2012 Reveals

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBramble View Post
I found the delineation of commercial and non-commercial and reportable/non-reportable has blurred in recent years to the extent that COT, which used to be a fairly solid indicator of professional and commercial bias is far less so these days. Does anyone share that view or am I howling into a lonely night sky?
Hi,
In my opinion, watching the COT report can give you an edge in trading especially if you are a swing trader: keeping positions for some weeks or even some months. I've started using the COT report 5 years ago and I'm still using it.
I've just started a new thread on this topic, feel free to join (title: Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis )! I'm showing recent examples that might convice you that COT analysis is still a solid indicator.

All the best,
D
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