Market Breadth

This is a discussion on Market Breadth within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; I'm starting this thread on Market Breadth charts as I think they give a clearer picture to what is really ...

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Old Apr 2, 2012, 10:50am   #1
 
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Market Breadth

I'm starting this thread on Market Breadth charts as I think they give a clearer picture to what is really going on the market.

Feel free to posts your breadth charts in here, but I focus on the NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA), NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R), NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R), NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R), NYSE A-D Line ($NYAD), and NYSE Highs-Lows ($NYHL) mainly. But I also look at the sector bullish percents regularly.

Attached is the current charts. The NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) has continued to fall away during March and is now on a sell signal after making a double bottom breakdown. It has also made a number of lower highs and moved below the key 70% level suggesting a short term correction is occurring in the broader market, as around 28% less stocks are now above their 50 day moving average than they were in February. This has taken the short term risk down though, as the $NYA50R was near record high levels of close to 90% in early February, but is now a much more reasonable 61.3%

The longer term indicators such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA), NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R), and NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) all remain above the 70% level and are still on buy signals, although the risk level is increased. Research by Dorsey Wright suggests that the NYSE Bullish Percent Index stays above the 70% level for an average of 96 days. It's more than 50 days since it broke above the 70% level now, so the research suggests on average we should have another month before it turns down again. But as it's an average it could also turn down much soon or much later, as there's no guarantees with anything, but the short term $NYA50R will lead, so I will look for the early warning signs there and the other shorter term indicators.
Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_30-3-12.png   nya200r_30-3-12.png   nya150r_30-3-12.png  

nya50r_30-3-12.png   sc.png   sc-1.png  

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Old Apr 2, 2012, 12:05pm   #2
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread For those people that don't normally use market breadth charts or don't know where to find them. You can find them on Stockcharts for free. Here's the link to the summary page: Market Summary - Free Charts - StockCharts.com Most of them can be found at the bottom of the page. Or if you want to see the percentage above their moving average charts you can do a search for the $ symbol and this will give you a large list where you can find all of them.
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Old Apr 2, 2012, 1:40pm   #3
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread One thing I find really useful is the Dorsey Sector's Bell Curve, as it shows the distribution of all of their 40 sectors on a bell curve. Currently the average for this is at 62.66%, so it is in a normal bull phase. Unfortunately it's not a free resource as you need to have a subscription to their site, but if you are industrious you can make your own version for free using the stockcharts bullish percent chart readings.

Attached is the Dorsey Sector Bell Curve with a comparison to how it looked at the October lows and my rough version using the free charts from Stockcharts, which is very weighted to the top of the scale, highlighting the increased risk in the market.
Attached Thumbnails
sector-bell-curve_30-3-12.png   sc_sector-bell-curve1.png  
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Apr 6, 2012, 2:47pm   #4
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

There were a few changes this week on the short and medium term market breadth charts of the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R). The $NYA50R moved to bear confirmed status and has moved down to 50%. So only 50% of stocks in the NYSE are now above their 50 day moving average. The $NYA150R also moved to Os but has yet to give a sell signal as it would need to move one box lower - so it is now on bear alert status in a high risk field position with 77.27% of stocks now above their 150 day moving average.

The longer term breadth charts of the NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) and NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) are still on Bull confirmed status and in a column of Xs. So the longer term picture is still good although short term the breadth charts are showing weakness as 39% less stocks are above their 50 day moving average than in early February now.

Click the image to open in full size.
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Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_5-4-12.png   nya200r_5-4-12.png   nya150r_5-4-12.png  

nya50r_5-4-12.png   market-breadth-table_5-4-12.png  
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Old Apr 6, 2012, 2:53pm   #5
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Attached is the New High New Lows Daily and Weekly charts and also the daily and weekly cumulative Advance Decline charts.
Attached Thumbnails
nyhl_weekly_5-4-12.png   nyhl_daily_5-4-12.png   nyad_weekly_5-4-12.png  

nyad_daily_5-4-12.png  
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Old Apr 10, 2012, 1:29am   #6
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

Some changes in the mid to long term breadth charts yesterday with the $NYA200R reversing to Os and approaching the 70% level. The $NYA150R (30 week) also gave a P&F sell signal with a double bottom breakdown, however at 74.87% it's still above the 70% level so it is considered a Bull Correction currently.

The shorter term $NYA50R (10 week) dropped further, with 39.55% of stocks in the NYSE now above their 50 day moving averages. So the short term risk is decreasing as the overbought state from February and March has come off significantly and if it's just a correction in Bull run then it should find a base fairly soon if you compare to the historical charts.

Attached is the charts
Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_9-4-12.png   nya200r_9-4-12.png   nya150r_9-4-12.png  

nya50r_9-4-12.png   market-breadth-table_9-4-12.png  
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Apr 11, 2012, 1:38am   #7
 
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Market Breadth Update

isatrader started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

All four of the breadth indicators listed above are now in a column of Os with an additional sell signal in the NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 200 day moving average ($NYA200R) as it dropped below the key 70% level.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) has now changed to Bear Alert status as it reversed to a column of Os and dropped below 70%. However, the short term breadth chart of the NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 50 day moving average ($NYA50R) has fallen to it's lowest level since the November bottom and has now entered the low risk area below 30%. So almost everyone who wants to sell in the short term has already sold, but that doesn't mean the market can't drop further as you need to wait for demand to come back in and a reversal on the chart back above the 30% level. So I'm going to be watching closely for a new short term buy signal on the $NYA50R chart, but if the down move is more serious then it can linger at the lower levels for a while.

Below are the breadth charts:

NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) - this is a compilation of the percent of stocks that trade on the NYSE that are on Point and Figure buy signals and tells you whether to be offensive or defensive with your strategy.
  • Xs = offense
  • Os = defense
  • 30% and 70% are the oversold and overbought areas where risk is highest
  • All stocks have an equal vote

Click the image to open in full size.

NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 200 day moving average ($NYA200R)
- this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 200 day moving average

Click the image to open in full size.

NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 150 day moving average ($NYA150R)
- this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 150 day (30 week) moving average

Click the image to open in full size.

NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 50 day moving average ($NYA50R) - this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day (10 week) moving average

Click the image to open in full size.
Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_10-4-12.png   nya200r_10-4-12.png   nya150r_10-4-12.png  

nya50r_10-4-12.png   market-breadth-table_10-4-12.png  
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Last edited by isatrader; Apr 11, 2012 at 1:43am.
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Old Apr 13, 2012, 1:21am   #8
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

We've had more activity in the last week than we've had in months with the status changing sides very rapidly. Today's changes (12th April) were positive once again with the short term NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) bouncing from Tuesday's very oversold condition to go onto Bull Alert status with it's move to Xs back above the key 30% lower level. 43.14% of stocks in the NYSE are now above their 50 day moving average.

The NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) also reversed back to Xs above 70% once more, although they are still on P&F sell signals. So both have moved to Bear Correction status and strategy for medium to long term positions should now become that of wealth preservation.
Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_12-4-12.png   nya200r_12-4-12.png   nya150r_12-4-12.png  

nya50r_12-4-12.png   market-breadth-table_12-4-12.png  
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Apr 13, 2012, 10:29am   #9
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Re: Market Breadth

Excellent thread isatrader - good work!
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Old Apr 13, 2012, 11:32am   #10
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Thanks Tim, I appreciate it.
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