Market Breadth

This is a discussion on Market Breadth within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Attached is the updated daily and weekly New Highs New Lows charts. This weeks reading of 958 new highs was ...

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Old Sep 16, 2012, 3:34pm   #61
 
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New Highs New Lows

isatrader started this thread Attached is the updated daily and weekly New Highs New Lows charts. This weeks reading of 958 new highs was the highest reading that Stockcharts have on record, and their charts go back to 1990. So I've also attached the 22 year chart of the net new highs and new lows as well, which shows it in context over the years.

The Top 5 weekly New High - New Low readings since 1990
  1. 14/9/2012 = 878
  2. 29/9/1997 = 629
  3. 12/4/2010 = 579
  4. 2/6/2003 = 577
  5. 30/6/1997 = 548

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Attached Thumbnails
sc-24.png   sc-25.png   sc-26.png  

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Old Sep 16, 2012, 6:44pm   #62
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts.

Click the image to open in full size.

The head coach of the NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) has moved back above it's 70% level again, as it did in January and so has now reached the end zone of the playing field. Dorsey did an article back in January about how long the NYSE Bullish Percent Index stays above the 70% level before reversing back to a column of Os; and the average time was 96 days over the last 25 years. During these times the best average returns were in the mid and small cap stock indexes, followed by the Nasdaq and then the S&P 500.

So although the market risk is now in the high category, on average it's held up for a further three months, so it's not a time to panic. But it would certainly be sensible to start planning your strategy for when it does next turn down, so that the nice gains that have been made over the last few months don't all evaporate.

NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

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NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 200, 150 and 50 Day Moving Averages

The long, medium and short term breadth measures continued to gain strength again with the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R), the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R) and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) all pushing closer to the tops of their normal ranges.

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Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_14-9-12.png   nya200r_14-9-12.png   nya150r_14-9-12.png  

nya50r_14-9-12.png   nya150r_line_14-9-12.png   market-breadth-table_14-9-12.png  

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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Sep 18, 2012, 11:58am   #63
 
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Major Sectors Bell Curve

isatrader started this thread It's been a long while since I last did the Major Sectors Bell Curve using the free Bullish Percent Sector Charts from Stockcharts. I find that the bullish percent bell curve is a very effective way of looking at the internal structure of market, and gives you a visual snapshot of what's going on. It's not as good as Dorsey's one as it only looks at the broad sectors, but it is free and gives you a better idea of what's going on in the NYSE Bullish Percent chart that I post every week.

Each sector bullish percent chart shows the percentage of stocks that are on a P&F buy signal at that time, and so every stock is given an equal weighting, unlike the major indexes.

Currently, the picture is very bullish with 9 of the 12 sectors on Bull Confirmed status and with close to or more than 70% of their stocks on P&F buy signals. This gives a median distribution for the sectors of 76.66%

However, 5 of the sectors are up near the top of their ranges, with for example the Energy sector with 97.77% of stocks on a P&F buy signal - which is an extreme level that it hasn't been at seen since 2005. So the risk profile of the sectors is mostly in the High to Very High category currently, which means that I'll need to watch for signs of weakness developing in the sectors, so that I can change my strategy when this latest bullish move is over.

Below is the table showing the individual sectors and their status and the Major Sectors Bell Curve from it.

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Attached Thumbnails
bpdisc_17-9-12.png   bpener_17-9-12.png   bpfina_17-9-12.png  

bpgdm_17-9-12.png   bpheal_17-9-12.png   bpindy_17-9-12.png  

bpinfo_17-9-12.png   bpmate_17-9-12.png   bpstap_17-9-12.png  

bptele_17-9-12.png   bptran_17-9-12.png   bputil_17-9-12.png  

sc_sector-bell-curve_17-9-12.png   sc_sector-bell-curve_list_17-9-12.png  
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Sep 29, 2012, 1:03pm   #64
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts.

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There was little change in the long term NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA), which only saw a 1% change, and so continues to be in a column of Xs and on Bull Confirmed Status.

However, the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 200, 150 and 50 Day Moving Averages all reversed to a column of Os this week, with the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 200 Day Moving Averages adding an O below the key 70 level. Which changes the status from a bull correction to a bear alert. However, the 150 and 50 Day closed slightly higher than the 200 day and so are on bull correction status.

The line chart of the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 150 Day (30 week) Moving Averages shows the positive trend still and has no divergence from the price action as yet, which would signal weakness. So on the current evidence, it appears to be a normal pullback to value within an uptrend.

Attached are the charts
Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_28-9-12.png   nya200r_28-9-12.png   nya150r_28-9-12.png  

nya50r_28-9-12.png   market-breadth-table_28-9-12.png   nya150r_line_28-9-12.png  

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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Oct 7, 2012, 1:18am   #65
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Attached is the updated P&F breadth charts.

Click the image to open in full size.

There was little change in the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 200, 150 and 50 Day Moving Averages charts this week with only slight moves up in the percentages. All three are back above their key 70% level in a column of Os and so are on Bull Correction status in the high risk end zone.

The long term NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) barely moved this week and so continues to be in a column of Xs and on Bull Confirmed Status.

Below are the P&F charts and I've also included the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average line chart which shows the swing low that has formed around the key 70% level. A break below that would signal weakness in the broad market, but I don't consider it a sell signal until the percentage breaks below the 30 week weighted moving average as well.
Attached Thumbnails
bpnya_5-10-12.png   nya200r_5-10-12.png   nya150r_5-10-12.png  

nya50r_5-10-12.png   nya150r_line_5-10-12.png   market-breadth-table_5-10-12.png  

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Old Oct 7, 2012, 1:19am   #66
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread Attached is the updated cumulative daily and weekly Advance Decline charts. The NYSE Advance Decline Cumulative Volume / NYSE Primary Market Total Volume ($NYUD:$NYTV) daily and weekly charts which measure the volume of the NYSE Advance Declines. And the daily and weekly New Highs New Lows charts.

All of these measures continue to look positive and aren't showing any divergences with the price action and so still confirm the current trend imo. Note the Advance Decline line is pushing close to new highs again.
Attached Thumbnails
nyse_newhighs_daily_5-10-12.png   nyse_newhighs_weekly_5-10-12.png   nyse_advdec_daily_5-10-12.png  

nyse_advdec_weekly_5-10-12.png   nyse_advdec_vol_daily_5-10-12.png   nyse_advdec_vol_weekly_5-10-12.png  

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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Oct 7, 2012, 1:20am   #67
 
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SPY/TLT Ratio

isatrader started this thread The S&P 500 SPDRs/iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (SPY:TLT) ratio made a swing low at the two year downtrend line support and reversed back up this week. The 1 box P&F chart also reversed back to a column of Xs this week and remains in a positive trend. Below are the charts.

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spy-tlt_pnf_5-10-12.png   spy-tlt_daily_5-10-12.png   spy-tlt_weekly_5-10-12.png  

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Old Oct 11, 2012, 12:57am   #68
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread This weeks negative price action has made some changes to breadth charts with the short term NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 50 Day Moving Average forming a double bottom breakdown and changing status today from Bull Correction to Bear Confirmed. There are now only 61.38% of stocks trading above their 50 day moving averages, which brings it back down to the early July levels.

The medium to longer term breadth charts of the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 150 and 200 Day Moving Averages also changed status and are now on Bear Alert as they have both pulled below their 70% levels. I prefer to go by the weekly levels for signals to filter the noise a bit, so we'll see if the market can find some support.

NYSE Percent of Stocks Above their 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R)

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Another interesting breadth chart is the New High New Lows, which has pulled below it's key 100 level today and is back in neutral territory. So definitely one to watch closely in the comings days to see if the new lows start to outnumber the new highs as that would indicate a more serious correction is underway, which it doesn't currently as the new lows were only 22 today.

New Highs ($NYHGH) New Lows ($NYLOW)

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Attached Thumbnails
nya50r_10-10-12.png   nyhgh_10-10-12.png  
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Old Oct 11, 2012, 1:47am   #69
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Re: Market Breadth

How were you able to get the stockcharts to say Bullish Signal Reversed. I am typing the same one and I get Triple Bottom Breakdown. I guess my question is how were you able to expand the time.
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Old Oct 11, 2012, 1:55am   #70
 
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Re: Market Breadth

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearsworth View Post
How were you able to get the stockcharts to say Bullish Signal Reversed. I am typing the same one and I get Triple Bottom Breakdown. I guess my question is how were you able to expand the time.
Below where it says Bullish Signal Reversed you'll notice that it says User-Defined, 2.0 pts/box 3 box reversal chart. This is because Breadth Charts use a custom setting of a 2 pt box size with a 3 box reversal setting. So at the bottom in the settings you'll see Chart Scale: and then a Scaling method drop down menu. Click this and change to User Defined. Then change the Box Size next to it to 2.0. Attached is a screenshot.

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screen-shot-2012-10-11-00.54.31.png  
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