Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

I started this thread for a place for people to discuss Stan Weinstein's method of stage analysis, as I read his book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" from 1988 in late 2010 and was very impressed with his four stage breakout method. For those that haven't read the book and are medium to long term position traders, then I recommend that you do, but there's a free article in the T2W archives from 2006 that's a good basic starting point. Here's the link: Articles - Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares | Trade2Win.

The thread itself has also now developed into a huge free resource, and has links to multiple interviews that Stan Weinstein has done, and has hundreds of examples of the different stages. The discussion has been in-depth at times and has covered a number of the grey areas from the book as well as focusing in detail on all aspects from the book.

I'm interested to see how other people apply his methods and hope for a serious discussion of what's going on the markets and individual stocks using his stage analysis method.

Below is a number of quick links to some of the most useful content in thread, which I will update as the thread develops, so that the best quality information is easily accessible for everyone.


Definitions of the Stages and Sub-stages

Stage 1A - Start of a base. Needs much more time.
Stage 1 - Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.
Stage 1B - Late in base-building phase.Watch for breakout.

Stage 2A - Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.
Stage 2 - Advancing Stage
Stage 2B - Getting late in uptrend. Watch carefully. But still a hold.

Stage 3A - Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop.
Stage 3 - The Top Area. Start to reduce positions.
Stage 3B - Has become increasingly toppy. Use rallies for at least partial selling.

Stage 4A - Stock has entered Downtrend Stage. Close out remaining positions.
Stage 4 - The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side.
Stage 4B - Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying.

Additional ratings
(A) Early in that Stage.
(B) Late in that Stage.
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.




Examples of the Stages

Over the course of doing this thread there have been multiple examples of the all the stages posted and they can be seen on every page if you take the time to go through the entire thread. However, to view the specific examples created using the Global Trend Alert (GTA) newsletters that Weinstein's firm does for institutional investors. Go to the following pages:

Stage examples from the March 2005 GTA
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1698054

Stage examples from the March 2012 GTA
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1804190


Interviews

Audio interviews with Stan Weinstein
Stan Weinstein | FINANCIAL SENSE

Video Interview from the day of the 1987 Stock Market crash
Black Monday - Part 2 - Nightly Business Report Oct.19, 1987 - YouTube


Reading

Global Trend Alert example - March 2005
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1675626

Extract from Stan Weinstein's interview in the "Technically Speaking" book
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2037672


Frequently Asked Questions

To be updated.....Chart software; chart set up; 30 week simple moving average or weighted moving average - as on the Mansfield charts in the book; entry points; sub stages; trader or investor approach; how to create the Mansfield Relative Strength, stock scanners, importance of volume, sector analysis, using the method with products other than stocks; weight of evidence approach, momentum index, advance decline, new high new low, head and shoulders patterns in Stage 1 and Stage 3; swing target method; drawing trendlines; theory of contrary opinion; forest to the trees approach; ....I will write this section properly with links to the appropriate posts when I have some free time.

Miscellaneous

Buying Reference - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1692514

Point and Figure Charts - Free resources to help learn P&F charting
Point & Figure Charting - ChartSchool
Dorsey PnF University


ISA's Charts

Precious Metals
(GC) Gold (13 Dec 2012 - Stage 1) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2033926
(SI) Silver (22 Dec 2012 - Stage 4 continuation within major Stage 1 range) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2040102
(PA) Palladium (21 Jan 2013 - Stage 2A) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2057256

Commodities
(CCI) Continuous Commodities Index (21 Jan 2013 - Stage 1) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2057492

US Treasuries
Latest stage analysis
US 30 Year Treasuries (8 Apr 2013 - Stage 1A) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2109046
Archive
US 30 Year Treasuries (22 Nov 2011 - Stage 2B) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1727942
US 30 Year Treasuries (16 Sep 2012 - Stage 3A) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1967674
US 10 Year Treasuries (16 Sep 2012 - Stage 3)- http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1967674
US 30 Year Treasuries (1 Feb 2013 - Stage 4) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2066920

Stocks and ETFs
Apple (AAPL) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post2030646
AIG (AIG) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1969468
Reynolds American Inc (RAI) (26 Nov 2011 - Stage 2 Continuation) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1730724

Indexes
Archive
S&P 500 (6 Nov 2011 - Stage 1A) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1716128

Forex
EURGBP (26 Nov 2011 - Stage 4A) - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1730478

I hope you enjoy the thread and please participate if you are using Stan Weinstein's method.

Attached is a pdf of his Global Trend Alert advisory service newsletter from March 2005 that he did (still does?) for Institutional Investors. I'm not sure if this is still going but it supposedly cost institutions $40,000 a year for the service and shows various charts of stocks and markets at the different stages and analysis of them, which I think helps to see, as it helps you to identify the stages he talks about in the book on some actual charts.

Below is the link to extracts from the book in google books

Stan Weinstein's Secrets for ... - Google Books

Attached is my weekly chart for the Dow 30 using the method. I have added a red/green indicator to show visually when the 30 week weighted moving average is going up or down and also a cumulative version of Elder's force index with a moving average to help me interpret the volume data at a glance.

The chart looks to me to be in stage 4 currently, with the possibility that it is in early stage 1. The volume data is a way off giving a new buy signal yet as it's far below it's moving average so my interpretation is that we have a while to go yet before the next buy signal and so should be defensive for the time being.

Does anyone interpret the stage any differently?

Here's another chart that's in a different stage. Silver looks to be in stage 3 currently, as the 30 WMA went flat briefly. But it is a great example of a powerful stage 2 rally from a big stage 1 base that you would still be in using the Weinstein method, as the stop loss placement would have moved you up gradually and by my interpretation your stop loss would now be at point D which is below $37.

Palladium is an interesting chart to me. It was a strong stage 2 performer during most of 2009 and 2010 with a stage 3 consolidation in the summer of 2010 before breaking out and continuing the stage 2 bull. It has now been in a stage 3 consolidation for almost a year and has failed to recapture the February high.

Relative strength vs the S&P 500 has been weakening, but it is still outperforming by 42% since the July 2010 S&P 500 low. However, it is under performing the market by -5% since the August 2011 low.

Where it goes from here, I'm not sure? But using stage analysis I'm looking to sell a break below the stage 3 channel or buy a breakout above the previous high on strong volume. I think that any breakout move could be quite strong as it has been consolidating for so long, but that the risk certainly looks to the downside at the moment although there is good support between $40 and $60 if it does fall.

The US Dollar gave a buy signal a week ago as the 30 week MA turned up for the first time in over a year and the price closed above the stage 1 consolidation high on increasing volume. So are we entering a fledgling stage 2 for the Dollar index? Or will it fall back in to the stage 1 range and be a false breakout?

Thanks zutou, is good to see someone is reading my posts.

Weinstein's method is very simple and I'm currently rereading his book for the third time to help me fine tune my understanding of the 4 stages, so that I can be more confident with my application of it in my own trading.