Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Attached is the US Sub Sectors ordered by the weekly percentage change. To see the full list sectioned by major ...

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Old Nov 11, 2013, 10:17am   #1051
 
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Dow Jones US Sub Sectors

isatrader started this thread Attached is the US Sub Sectors ordered by the weekly percentage change. To see the full list sectioned by major sector, with links through to individual stocks in each sector, go to: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/in...&G=SECTOR_SPDR
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us_sub_sectors1_8-11-13.png   us_sub_sectors2_8-11-13.png  
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Old Nov 11, 2013, 10:18am   #1052
 
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UK FTSE 350 Stocks and Sectors Relative Performance

isatrader started this thread Attached is the Relative performance tables for the UK FTSE 350 Sectors.

To see the individual stocks in each sector go to: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/e...ector=&page=10 and use the drop down menu.

FTSE 350 Sectors - Ordered by Overall RS Score

ftse350-sectors-rs_8-11-13.png

FTSE 350 Sectors - Ordered by Weekly Change

ftse350s_5day_change_8-11-13.png

FTSE 350 Sectors - Ordered by Monthly Change

ftse350s_20day_change_8-11-13.png
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Old Nov 11, 2013, 10:21am   #1053
 
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Market Breadth Update

isatrader started this thread Attached is the updated NYSE Bullish Percent Index and the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts, the advance decline line and the new high new lows.

Click the image to open in full size.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index

bpnya_8-11-13.png

NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages P&F charts

nya200r_8-11-13.pngnya150r_8-11-13.pngnya50r_8-11-13.png

NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 200 Day, 150 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages line charts

nya200r_line_8-11-13.pngnya150r_line_8-11-13.pngnya50r_line_8-11-13.png

Advance Decline Line

nyad_cum_8-11-13.png

New Highs New Lows

nyhl_d_8-11-13.png
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market-breadth-table_8-11-13.png  
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Old Nov 11, 2013, 10:25am   #1054
 
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Stage 2 Continuation Example

isatrader started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

I wanted to highlight TASR, as it shows a good example imo of a Stage 2 continuation move over the last few months to new highs, following a consolidation of it's initial Stage 2 run up. Volume surged to more than two times the weekly average on the continuation breakout and the relative performance also broke out to new highs. But another thing to note that we haven't talked about much before was the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) before the breakout to new highs, which was accompanied by a volume contraction immediately preceding the Stage 2 continuation move.

The Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) is a core concept of Mark Minervini's work, who uses Weinstein's method as well as Jesse Livermore's work and fundamentals also, and has had great success over the years and featured in the Stock Market Wizards book. I recently read Mark Minervini's book "How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market" and think it's an excellent companion for people using Weinstein's trader method as it has some additional depth for shorter term traders as Weinstein's book was more focused on the investor method. But the concepts it introduces can be used by both traders and investors imo, so I'd recommend it for everyone using Weinstein's method.
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Old Nov 25, 2013, 6:54pm   #1055
 
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New here - Stan Weinstein fan

Hi all,

I've been a Stan's fan for the last 15 years. Do you know which screener to use to find companies that match his strategy?

Thanks.
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Old Dec 1, 2013, 9:19pm   #1056
 
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Hi all,

I've been a Stan's fan for the last 15 years. Do you know which screener to use to find companies that match his strategy?

Thanks.
There's a few useful free screeners that can be set to find some the characteristics that we look for in the method - Finviz, Chartmill and Prorealtime are all good. And a fairly good starting place is to just run a simple screen to look for at least two times the weekly average volume and a rising 30 week MA, and then go through the results manually to find the most suitable candidates for further research. Or if you want to check daily then screen for three times the daily average volume and rising 30 week MA.
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Old Dec 2, 2013, 11:42pm   #1057
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Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
There's a few useful free screeners that can be set to find some the characteristics that we look for in the method - Finviz, Chartmill and Prorealtime are all good. And a fairly good starting place is to just run a simple screen to look for at least two times the weekly average volume and a rising 30 week MA, and then go through the results manually to find the most suitable candidates for further research. Or if you want to check daily then screen for three times the daily average volume and rising 30 week MA.
Thanks for the heads-up on Chartmill - they have some great parameters to screen for. Do you think it would help to screen for the price near lows as well?

I've been a CANSLIM guy, but I think this method has the potential to get in much earlier for a bigger chunk of the runup, although bottoms are difficult to pinpoint. I'm fond of buying the first bounce off the 50 day MA after a first move up. I actually bought Stan's book in the 90's and have been trying to find it somewhere around here......

Thanks for all your work in this thread - it hasn't gone unnoticed!

Last edited by SoCalSteve; Dec 3, 2013 at 12:34am.
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Old Dec 3, 2013, 12:42am   #1058
 
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Thanks for the heads-up on Chartmill - they have some great parameters to screen for. Do you think it would help to screen for the price near lows as well?

I've been a CANSLIM guy, but I think this method has the potential to get in much earlier for a bigger chunk of the runup. I'm fond of buying the first bounce off the 50 day MA after a first move up. I actually bought Stan's book in the 90's and have been trying to find it somewhere around here......

Thanks for all your work in this thread - it hasn't gone unnoticed!
No, stay away from looking for price near the lows in the screens, as an early Stage 2A breakout doesn't happen very near the low percentage wise as Stage 1 bases can be quite wide. Volume is the key ingredient to screen for imo as well as a rising 30 week MA. So learn to be able visually identify the Stage 2A breakout point and then when you go through your screen results you be able to narrow it down quickly.

I do a few watchlist threads on my Stage Analysis forum, so if you want to see the more up to date stuff I've been doing then search for that via Google.
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Old Dec 10, 2013, 10:28am   #1059
 
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Stan Weinstein's Interview

isatrader started this thread Stan Weinstein did a new 15 minute interview on the Financial Sense Newshour at the weekend, explaining his current views on the state of the market. The interview starts around 14 minutes into the recording. Here's the link:

http://www.financialsense.com/financ...seventh-inning
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Old Jan 2, 2014, 11:51am   #1060
 
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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread The key points that I learnt in 2013 about Stan Weinstein's method.

Volume is just as important today as it was back when Weinstein wrote the book. We had discussed on this old thread and earlier in the year whether volume was as important anymore due to indexing, ETFs and dark pools etc. But through the course of doing the Stage Analysis forum and the daily scans for breakouts and breakdowns etc I've come to realise that it's just as important today as it was back then, it's just only visible mostly the small caps that aren't distorted by the indexing etc.

The vast majority of Stage 2A breakouts occur when the relative performance is above the zero line or on the week it crosses it. However, if the four key components of the method aren't all present - i.e. price action breakout, 2x volume, relative performance above zero line, above or moving above long term resistance - then avoid.

The Relative Performance Zero Line (52 week moving average of the stock divided by the S&P 500) is a useful guide as to whether a Stage 2A breakout will be successful or not. The Mansfield RS flattened the zero line, but by viewing the unflattened MA you can get additional vital information as to whether it's too early for a stock to breakout or not successfully. As I've noticed through the hundreds of charts I look at daily that if the zero line is still declining sharply when the Stage 2A breakout occurs, that the stock will struggle to advance. It doesn't mean that it won't advance, but that the most successful Stage 2A breakouts occur when the zero line is either flattening or already moving higher.

Never to buy a breakout trading under heavy / any near term resistance. I define this using the weekly Ichimoku Cloud as I can instantly see the resistance then when scanning through the charts each day and filter out any setups that aren't ready and will need more time to work through the resistance first. Any that aren't ready can be put on a longer term watchlist that can be reviewed occasionally for if and when they are ready to clear resistance.

A+ setups occur regularly in the small/mid caps but are rare in the large cap stocks. So you should never compromise in the small and mid cap stocks - remember the excerpt about opportunity cost from the book.

Moving on to 2014 - the last year in the market was very strong by historical standards and a lot of traders will be patting themselves on the back for doing so well as so many stocks went up, and so it's easy to get complacent. But we never know whats going to happen next in the market, and with the US markets continuing in Stage 2B currently we need to continue to focus, especially on the quality of trades we now make, and also on the stocks already in our portfolios, as they are the best guide to whats really happening in the market imo, along with the market breadth data.

Good luck with your trading and investing in 2014, and please try to get involved with the new Stage Analysis website if you use Stan Weinstein's method, even if only in a small way.

Happy New Year
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Jan 30, 2014, 9:57am   #1061
 
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Originally Posted by isatrader View Post

The vast majority of Stage 2A breakouts occur when the relative performance is above the zero line or on the week it crosses it. However, if the four key components of the method aren't all present - i.e. price action breakout, 2x volume, relative performance above zero line, above or moving above long term resistance - then avoid.
Hi.
In your last post, you explain the key components for a stage 2 break out. Could you explain the key components for stage 4 breakdown?
It will be much appreciated... Great little thread you got here
Thanks.
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Old Jan 30, 2014, 10:31am   #1062
 
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Hi.
In your last post, you explain the key components for a stage 2 break out. Could you explain the key components for stage 4 breakdown?
It will be much appreciated... Great little thread you got here
Thanks.
Thanks, it's simply the opposite of a Stage 2A breakout except on the volume. So you want to look for a price action breakdown, 2x average weekly volume (but less important than on breakouts), relative performance below zero line, and below or moving below long term resistance.

A current example of a stock in late Stage 3B is 888 Holdings, which is currently testing the bottom of it's Stage 3 range. The relative performance is below it's zero line, and volume has been above average this week so far. So if it breaks down and closes the week below it's support level then it would move into Stage 4A. However, it could also rebound at this point before making a Stage 2 continuation move higher, as it's a battleground area in a stock that had a very strong Stage 2 advance, so you would wait for confirmation of a breakdown before considering entering on the short side, as it may just be consolidating it's gains and trying to shake out the weak holders. But that's why you need confirmation imo.

Click the image to open in full size.

I hope that helps
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Jan 30, 2014, 7:47pm   #1063
 
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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread NSR is an example of a Stage 4A breakdown for you, which I highlighted on Monday night in the watchlist thread http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showt...d=2912#pid2912

Click the image to open in full size.

View the marked up chart that I posted and then compare with the current chart, as it's a good example of why you shouldn't hold onto a stock moving into Stage 4A, as stocks often take the stairs up, but the elevator down, and is why one of Weinstein's rules from the book is that you should never go long a stock in Stage 3 or 4 (especially Stage 4).

Click the image to open in full size.
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nsr_w_27-1-14.png   sc-1.png  
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Old Feb 1, 2014, 4:34pm   #1064
 
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S&P 500 Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread The S&P 500 has pulled back to retest a weekly swing low for the first time in over a year and in doing so has formed the first two parts of a potential head and shoulders pattern. So I’m changing my Stage rating to Stage 2B- / 3A, as although not officially yet in Stage 3A, it’s right on the edge of moving into Stage 3A and touched the 30 week weighted MA this week. So a weekly breakdown below the recent lows would confirm the change to early Stage 3A imo.

So it's a critical time for the S&P 500 ahead, although if it does breakdown then there should be some support at the 200 day MA were institutional investors / fund managers like to buy, which lines up with the highs of the summer range which also should provide some support. But if it rebounds here then the 50 day MA is the first hurdle imo.
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Old Feb 7, 2014, 1:10pm   #1065
 
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Hello, thanks for answering my previous question. I am a complete begginer and probably have another stupid question lol. I was just wondering how do you find out if the market is in an upward trend/downward trend and how to find out what industries are the leaders on the FTSE in the most effective way? Thanks.
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