Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

My friend found a promising pick today which I really liked. It is Victrex (VCT.L) which is in the Chemicals sector which is currently the top sector based on Mansfield RS.

Victrex is in Stage 1B and the Manfield RS has just gone positive and cumulative volume is on a steady increase.

So I went long VCT.L at 1417.69 and have put my sell stop at 1317.66

Attached is the charts

I did a post on the UK banks last week and noted the following about Barclays (BARC.L)
This weeks price action has so far been positive with BARC.L bouncing around the Stage 2 breakout support. If it can close the week around it's current level or higher then it could be a good low risk secondary entry point for it, with a stop loss under the 200 level - so below this weeks swing low and the 200 day MA.

A second down week for the S&P 500 has pulled the price back to the secondary breakout level of 1370, which is also just below the 50 day moving average. It's possible that we may be at the secondary entry point as a lot of individual names have pulled back to their Stage 2 breakout levels. But we need to watch the price action carefully this coming week as the recent negative tone could continue and if it does then 1340 is the level to watch imo on the downside.

The other indexes all traded lower last week including the Nasdaq 100, which rolled over for the first time since December lead by Apples down week. The worst was the FTSE 100 which closed below it's breakout point to close near it's 200 day MA. But the Russell 2000 small caps held the range it's been developing since February, after a brief break below it.

The Gold chart continues to look weak in Stage 3, but had an up week following the previous weeks breakdown. The price has been trading under the 200 day MA for the last five weeks though and also has not manged to rebound convincingly off the 3 and half year trend line, which in the past has been the swing point. If price trades below the 200 day MA this week then the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA will have a negative crossover. So the new Stage 4A breakdown point I'm looking for is a close below 1613, but if it can get back above 1700 then it could see a strong rally.

Copper was very weak last week and saw a high volume sell off below it's recent trading range on China GDP concerns as well as being dragged by broad market sell off. However, as you'll see from the China Shanghai Composite chart which I've included, the Chinese clearly didn't think it was as bad as Wall Street did and shrugged it off on Tuesday to trade the rest of the week higher and has now formed a higher low on the weekly chart and looks to be forming a possible Stage 1 range although it could still be considered a Stage 4B-

Crude Oil made a similar move to Copper and couldn't break back above the recent trading range lower resistance. But, it is sitting right at it's Stage 2 breakout level, so it could be a possible secondary entry point if it can pivot higher this coming week.

Treasuries have been very interesting the last few weeks. The 10 year has traded up very close the top of it's Stage 3 range and is in striking distance of breaking out into a Stage 2 continuation. However, the 30 year chart doesn't back it up yet, as that still has a lot of resistance above it in it's Stage 3 range and the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA are moving towards a possible negative crossover, suggesting that the move higher might be a whipsaw to catch people out. The cumulative volume shows that although the price has moved higher, the volume has not come back in. So it's a weak rally and so vulnerable if any negative volume attempts to push it down again.

There was no positional changes in the major US Industry Sectors this week with Technology still showing the best Mansfield relative strength rating. Below is the table:



The Dow Jones US Tires Index dropped one place to make it into the bottom five weakest sub-sectors, whereas at the top of the list the Dow Jones US Home Improvement Retailers Index moved up two places to claim the top spot this week, and the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index also moved into 5th place as last weeks number five, the Dow Jones US Industrial Suppliers Index, dropped out to 10th place.

Here's the updated top and bottom US Sub-sectors:

Top five strongest sub-sectors:
1. ^DJUSHI - Dow Jones US Home Improvement Retailers Index
2. ^DJUSCR - Dow Jones US Computer Hardware Index
3. ^DJUSTT - Dow Jones US Travel & Tourism Index
4. ^DJUSPL - Dow Jones US Pipelines Index
5. ^DJUSHB - Dow Jones US Home Construction Index

Bottom five weakest sub-sectors:
1. ^DJUSCL - Dow Jones US Coal Index
2. ^DJUSMG - Dow Jones US Mining Index
3. ^DJUSPT - Dow Jones US Platinum & Precious Metals Index
4. ^DJUSPM - Dow Jones US Gold Mining Index
5. ^DJUSTR - Dow Jones US Tires Index

Below is the latest UK FTSE 350 Sectors charts and Mansfield Relative Strength rankings. FTSE 350 Sector Oil Equipment Services & Distribution Index (^NMX0570) dropped from last weeks 1st place down to 7th this week, with FTSE 350 Sector Chemicals (^NMX1350) taking over the top spot.The other mover of note was FTSE 350 Sector Personal Goods which moved from 11th to 5th on the RS rankings.

Below is the full list in rank order and attached is the updated charts:

Attached is the updated S&P 500 chart with the Advance Decline momentum indicators and my personal momentum gauges. For the bulls the 200 day MA of the Advance Decline line needs to break back above it's resistance at 16031.

Below is the relative performance table for the major futures markets ordered by the strongest first using the Mansfield RS reading.

Here's the updated major charts.