Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

It's a paid for end of day software program called ProTA Gold for the Apple Mac. I like it, but you have to import your data etc, which obviously you don't have to on the free charts services. Here's the link: ProTA: Mac OS X Stock Market Charting and Technical Analysis Software

I previously looked at gold on the 24th September on the thread. Here's the link: previous Gold post 24th Sept

The stage 2 bull run is still intact currently, as even though the sell-off was extreme, it has so far managed to bounce around the 30 week MA as it has done before in the last two years. The moving average is still rising, but I think it’s too soon to raise the stop loss from the previous low below 1500 on the weekly chart.

On the daily chart the measured move price target of 1585 was reached, but gold is in stage 4 on the daily chart, so for me there is nothing to do as yet, as the goal is to buy in early stage 2 which looks a while away at the moment.

Relative strength vs the S&P 500 is fairly flat.

Daily volume is very negative still, and weekly volume has pulled below the moving average.

Below is the updated chart.

I've been looking in-depth at the Global Trend Alert newsletter from March 2005 that I attached in post 2 on the thread here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1675626

I think this gives an important update to the book, as the book was written 23 years ago and he's clearly refined the system a little bit since then. For example, the four stages now have extra definitions with A, B, + and - symbols. So you now have a Stage 2B, and if the technical pattern is outstanding it is labelled 2B+

Here's the definitions of the stages from the newsletter

Stage 1A - Start of a base. Needs much more time.
Stage 1 - Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.
Stage 1B - Late in base-building phase.Watch for breakout.

Stage 2A - Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.
Stage 2 - Advancing Stage
Stage 2B - Getting late in uptrend. Watch carefully. But still a hold.

Stage 3A - Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop.
Stage 3 - The Top Area. Start to reduce positions.
Stage 3B - Has become increasingly toppy. Use rallies for at least partial selling.

Stage 4A - Stock has entered Downtrend Stage. Close out remaining positions.
Stage 4 - The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side.
Stage 4B - Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying.

Additional ratings
(A) Early in that Stage.
(B) Late in that Stage.
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.

Below is the simple diagram from the newsletter to give the descriptions above some context.

Another thing that I think is really useful about the Global Trend Alert newsletter pdf, is that it has all the S&P 500 stocks marked up with their stages from the 25th February 2005. I think this is great as you can go back in your own charting package to that date and get a much better idea of the various stages and hence become better at identifying them. As the charts in the book were very small and the print quality wasn't great. So I think this will really help my understanding of the stages.

On that date the Stage Ratings Overview had the following:

Stage 1 - 8%
Stage 2 - 58%
Stage 3 - 18%
Stage 4 - 16%

So you should have around 40 examples of Stage 1, 290 examples of Stage 2, 90 examples of Stage 3, and 80 examples of Stage 4 to look at. I plan to create a spreadsheet and go through them one by one to create my own reference guide so that I can use them to identify my charts in the future.

As a follow up to my previous post outlining the break down of the four stages, I've been going through the Global Trend Alert Newsletter to get some real life examples of the various stages to use as a reference in the future.

Stage 1A - Start of a base. Needs much more time

Key
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.

Stage 1 - Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.

Key
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.

Stage 1B - Late in base-building phase. Watch for breakout.

Key
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.

Stage 2A - Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.

Key
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.