Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; I just had a quick scan through and in Chapter 9, page 330, he does actually talk about using it ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Jan 10, 2012, 12:06am   #217
 
isatrader's Avatar
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread I just had a quick scan through and in Chapter 9, page 330, he does actually talk about using it on other markets such as orange juice futures and mutual funds and index futures. So it wasn't limited to stocks only.
__________________
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
isatrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 10, 2012, 8:01am   #218
Joined Aug 2005
Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by lplate View Post
. . . . If you ask the questions 1. which charts have the simplest pattern and 2. which look to have the best entry points, the answers I think are: most like a stage 2 buy =DXY, and a stage 4 sell = GOLD, and a possible continuation stage 2 buy = Treasuries.
Again it shows how differently a chart can be interpreted! I was looking purely at the shape of the price close line, without opening the chart picture. I made the DXY breakout and MA turn up at 80 and the GOLD breakdown and MA turn down at around 1610. (Treasury still setting up for continuation Breakout.)
I was trying to take a dispassionate TA view, as on fundamentals I won't be taking these trades.
lplate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 10, 2012, 8:09am   #219
Joined Aug 2005
Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
... other markets such as orange juice futures ...
Thanks isa I missed that. Nevertheless, the argument of the book to me says you need a relevant reference index and a set of individual instruments by which to cherry pick a new trend in that index.
Currencies, commodities and fixed interest may have a different cyclical nature to shares, so it needs testing of success and with different time frames. The book is based on many years' experience trend-trading shares only.
lplate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 10, 2012, 4:11pm   #220
 
isatrader's Avatar
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by lplate View Post
Thanks isa I missed that. Nevertheless, the argument of the book to me says you need a relevant reference index and a set of individual instruments by which to cherry pick a new trend in that index.
Currencies, commodities and fixed interest may have a different cyclical nature to shares, so it needs testing of success and with different time frames. The book is based on many years' experience trend-trading shares only.
I think the forward testing in this thread of commodities and currencies has been promising so far using the same weekly time frame and the majority of the stage analysis methods. Although, due to the technical nature of the people trading currencies I think the monthly chart seems to give a clearer view on those, but weekly still works though too but is prone to bigger whipsaws. Treasuries on the other hand have shown some of the best examples of stage analysis. I agree you can't do everything you need to with Treasuries, like sector analysis. But that doesn't mean you can't trade them as from following them all while I've been doing this thread it is clear that the method works very well for all of them, and I'll continue to forward test them on here and you can make up your own mind from the results.
__________________
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Last edited by isatrader; Jan 10, 2012 at 5:37pm.
isatrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 12, 2012, 3:22pm   #221
 
isatrader's Avatar
Joined Oct 2010
US Industry Sectors

isatrader started this thread Attached is the latest US industry sector charts and relative performance table.

Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Technology are picking up in Stage 1.
Attached Thumbnails
industry_sector_rs_1_1_12.png   industry_sectors_11_1_12.png  
__________________
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
isatrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 12, 2012, 9:57pm   #222
 
isatrader's Avatar
Joined Oct 2010
S&P 500 Railroad Stocks

isatrader started this thread As the Industrials group is topping my list at the moment I thought I'd have a look through the groups sub-sectors and see what chart was near a Stage 2 breakout.

Railroads (^DJUSRR) stood out as the sub-sector is just below the Stage 2 breakout point and has outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 10% since the October low.

One of the main things to look for with Weinstein buys is whether the stocks in the group are acting in a similar way as this gives extra validation to a Stage 2 breakout. Read pages 78 to 91 in the book as Weinstein explains in detail about this.

In the S&P 500 there are three railroad stocks: CSX Corp (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP). UNP has the strongest chart and confirmed a Stage 2 this week; NSC is not far behind and is just below the Stage 2 breakout point, so is currently Stage 1B, and CSX is the laggard in Stage 1. All three are outperforming the S&P 500 and with the Industrials sector now in the later part of Stage 1 the group is looking promising.

Here's the charts
Attached Thumbnails
djusrr_weekly_12_1_12.png   xli_weekly_12_1_12.png   unp_weekly_12_1_12.png  

nsc_weekly_12_1_12.png   csx_weekly_12_1_12.png   sharpchartv05-9.png  

sharpchartv05-10.png   sharpchartv05-11.png  
__________________
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
isatrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 14, 2012, 6:06pm   #223
Joined Aug 2005
Re: S&P 500 Railroad Stocks

Great work isa.
In tech sector, Netflix an example where of great interest to the "trader" method, but not to the "investor" for many more weeks. Netflix Inc., NFLX Advanced Chart - (NASDAQ) NFLX, Netflix Inc. Stock Price - BigCharts.com
lplate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 14, 2012, 6:14pm   #224
 
isatrader's Avatar
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Attached is the updated major charts I follow for analysis. Copper (HG) made it's first weekly close above the 30 WMA and now needs to follow through and close above 3.75 to move into Stage 1A. Gold (GC) and Silver (SI) both ran up into their breakdown levels last week and started to falter at the end of the week. I have Gold as still Stage 3, but very close to a Stage 4 breakdown and Silver has been Stage 4 for a while now. Crude (CL) is a little trickier to call, but looks to be carving out a Stage 1 range between 104 and 92.5

Dollar Index continues to grind higher through it's resistance with a 52 week closing high this week. There's significant resistance for it to get through up to 85. But I'd class it as Stage 1B currently.

US 30 Year Treasuries pushed back above their trendline last week to close near the top of the Stage 2 consolidation range. A continuation move is possible but it's currently still in it's range, so needs watching closely as a continuation move would be very bad for equities as they trade inversely a large majority of the time.

S&P 500 closed near the 1300 breakout point and I'd class it as a Stage 1 now.

Below are my charts
Attached Thumbnails
hg_weekly_13_1_12.png   gc_weekly_13_1_12.png   si_weekly_13_1_12.png  

cl_weekly_13_1_12.png   dx_weekly_13_1_12.png   us30_tresuries_weekly_13_1_12.png  

spx_weekly_13_1_12.png  
__________________
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
isatrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Article: Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares T2W Bot Educational Resources 9 Apr 19, 2013 8:09am
Stan Weinstein: secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets expensif Educational Resources 10 May 29, 2006 1:14pm
HSBA and STAN Anil Technical Analysis 1 Jan 25, 2001 10:23am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)