Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; This website may help also to give specific ideas. Current Watch List from stocktiger.net Main Menu Weinstein does not actually ...

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Old Jan 3, 2012, 7:58am   #201
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This website may help also to give specific ideas. Current Watch List from stocktiger.net Main Menu

Weinstein does not actually suggest looking for historical parallels. However, we all seem to do it - and come up with different answers!
Stocktiger looks at a 5 year chart of SPX (monthly) and finds it reasonably bullish despite an uptrend break. http://stocktiger.net/newsletters/news030112.php
You have looked at a 2 year chart and find it reasonably bullish, and see perhaps current parallels with the "Stage 1" of around July 2010
I looked at a 10 year chart and find it bearish, seeing only today's parallel to the stage 3/4 congestion around mid 2008. http://tinyurl.com/72adu5l

I like to draw historical parallels, and the more features you add to the description, the less likely you are to find a parallel. You have to select the few best features in order to find the best parallel. It's a problem !
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 9:05am   #202
 
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S&P 500 All Years Chart

isatrader started this thread Here’s the S&P 500 quarterly chart since 1950 using a logarithmic scale. I’ve marked it up to show you what I’m seeing, as based on the price action this could possibly be the early part of a new Stage 1 formation on a quarterly basis. Or it could still be in Stage 3, but I think due to the failed Stage 4 breakdown in 2009 and two higher lows since then that it is actually now early in Stage 1 so could bounce around the 1000 to 1550 range for a few more years yet. But a break below 1000 would invalidate it.

For a historical comparison we only have the 1970's to look at on the S&P 500 of a similar consolidation period which took 5 years to resolve to the upside after the failed Stage 4 breakdown in 1974.

Below is my 61 year chart
Attached Thumbnails
spx_quarterly_all_years_mrk.png  
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 1:40pm   #203
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

cool chart. would be nice to have a 15 year bull mkt again
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 2:14pm   #204
 
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Dow Industrials 91 Year Chart

isatrader started this thread Here's the logarithmic 91 year Dow Industrials chart which includes the 1920's and 1930's bull and bear market.
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indu_quarterly_all_years.png  
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 2:18pm   #205
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

87 looks a minor blip
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 2:22pm   #206
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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Quote:
Originally Posted by theblackmamba View Post
87 looks a minor blip
In the grand scheme of things it was as recovered fairly quickly from it. But is the largest one day percentage drop ever.
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Old Jan 5, 2012, 1:18am   #207
 
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Sector rotation

isatrader started this thread It's only a few days into the new trading year but I've noticed a bit of sector rotation the last few days with last months leaders lagging so far. It's very early to tell if this is going to last but it is interesting none the less. I've attached last months chart and the first two days of this week for comparison.

The only two sectors in Stage 2 - Utilities and Consumer Staples have pulled back to their breakout levels. So we need to watch how they react here over the next few weeks and see if they form a continuation pivotal point and continue higher. As this would be a secondary low risk entry point if you missed the initial breakout points last month.
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sectors_chart_20day_30-12-11.png   sectors_chart_2day_4-1-12.png   us_industry_sectors_4-1-12.png  

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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Jan 5, 2012, 9:43am   #208
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

the time and effort you put in much appreciated.
thanks..
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Old Jan 6, 2012, 1:27am   #209
 
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ADP - Automatic Data Processing

isatrader started this thread I normally wait for the confirmation of a stock closing the week above the Stage 2 buy point. However, my broker has finally added a boundary feature which means I can place my order properly as it is described in the book - with a buy stop order at the ideal entry point and price boundary limit a few ticks above so that if the price gaps above my limit price it won't be filled. So I've set my buy stop order price at 55.13 to 55.16 with a stop at 53.18 - which gives me a 2% ATR risk under the recent daily range if it is filled.

I like the relative performance on this stock which has been trending up for most of the year versus the market, it's industry sector and sub-sector. Volume is not there though so I will be looking to see if this picks up if it breaks out.

The Industry sectors is Industrials (XLI) which is shaping up nicely at the moment in Stage 1 and the Sub-sector is Financial Administration (^DJUSFA) which is in a similar Stage 1 pattern. Both of which are attached.

Below is my charts
Attached Thumbnails
adp_weekly_5_1_12.png   adp_weekly_rs_5_1_12.png   adp_pnf_5-1-12.png  

xli_weekly_rs_5_1_12.png   djusfa_weekly_rs_5_1_12.png  
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Old Jan 8, 2012, 12:58pm   #210
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Everyone who has read the whole thread and the book should be able to interpret a weekly chart by now fairly well, so attached is a handful of the major charts I look at each week for comparisons. I'd be interested to hear anyone's thoughts on what they are seeing with regards to the stages from these charts.
Attached Thumbnails
gc_weekly_6_1_12.png   si_weekly_6_1_12.png   cl_weekly_6_1_12.png  

hg_weekly_6_1_12.png   spx_weekly_6_1_12.png   us-30-year-treasuries_6_1_12.png  

ty-10-year-treasuries_6_1_12.png   dx_dollar_weekly_6_1_12.png   ssec_weekly_6_1_12.png  

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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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