Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; been a while since i posted anything. my trading has been flat on the year so far. had one big ...

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Old Jan 16, 2012, 10:09am   #226
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

been a while since i posted anything.
my trading has been flat on the year so far. had one big winner gkp, but this has been offset by liz, ctb, and fosl which has gone against me.
thought i would share my gkp chart and trade as feel it is weinstein example at it's best.
enclosed is a weekly, daily and oil sector shares/(in uk) chart.
the weekly chart shows that between nov 2010, and december 2011 it was in a wide rangeing congestion area of 120 points between 80-200. then at end of december it broke out on a very high trading week, but closed the week back at breakout lecel. then had a week of consolidation on much lighter volume, before resuming breakout. i bought at 205 as started going up again. obviously diodn't expect it to rocket like it did.
as page 193 at the bottom suggests after an unexpected windfall takes place to take partial profits. i did this twice above the 270 level with small positions leaving just under half of original position left.
my stop has now been raised to breakeven, and willl traet it now like the investment section of weinstein does.
Attached Thumbnails
gkp.png   gkp1.png   oil.png  

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Old Jan 16, 2012, 11:36am   #227
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by theblackmamba View Post
been a while since i posted anything.
my trading has been flat on the year so far. had one big winner gkp, but this has been offset by liz, ctb, and fosl which has gone against me.
thought i would share my gkp chart and trade as feel it is Weinstein example at it's best.
enclosed is a weekly, daily and oil sector shares/(in UK) chart.
the weekly chart shows that between Nov 2010, and December 2011 it was in a wide ranging congestion area of 120 points between 80-200. then at end of December it broke out on a very high trading week, but closed the week back at breakout level. then had a week of consolidation on much lighter volume, before resuming breakout. i bought at 205 as started going up again. obviously didn't expect it to rocket like it did.
as page 193 at the bottom suggests after an unexpected windfall takes place to take partial profits. i did this twice above the 270 level with small positions leaving just under half of original position left.
my stop has now been raised to breakeven, and will treat it now like the investment section of Weinstein does.
Thanks Peter, that's a really good example of getting in at the right entry point as now you have a nice profit and can follow the rest of the move with either the investor or trader stop and move up your stop initially once you get a new confirmed continuation pivot point and it moves up towards the high again.

Reference material on managing the stop loss can be found in the book in Chapter 6: When to Sell, and specific illustrations for the investor and trader method can be found on pages 184 for the investor and 194 for the trader.

It'll be nice if I can find one of those for myself although I expect I'm less likely to as I'm sticking to the large cap stocks only in S&P 500 and FTSE 350.

Keep up the good work.
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Old Jan 16, 2012, 11:34pm   #228
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread I've been reviewing the top sub-sectors and currently the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (^DJUSHB) is outperforming the S&P 500 by the most since the October low and has done 36% better. And going through the stocks I remembered that LEN was brought to my attention by theblackmamba last week.

LEN's monthly chart over the last 15 years is a great example of the four stages and with last weeks close it has now moved back into early Stage 2A. However, although this is the ideal long term investor entry point, it has already moved 81% since the October low so it will most likely need time to consolidate, as it is 27% above it's 30 week WMA, which is the top end of it's normal range. So a safer entry point might be to wait for a reaction back to the breakout point around $21.00

Below is my monthly, weekly and daily charts
Attached Thumbnails
len_monthly_13_1_12.png   len_daily_13_1_12.png  
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Old Jan 17, 2012, 3:40pm   #229
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread My buy stop order in ADP from 6th January that I posted here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1760120 was filled at $55.13 and I closed out my position in BF.B at $79.88 for a small profit on the 15/12/2011 entry at $78.70, as I decided over the weekend to trim one of the laggards in the portfolio to make room for a new trade possibly in one of the railroad stocks I looked at the other day.

Also, I've exited my Silver short at $30.383 for a good gain on my $32.009 entry on 24/11/2011. It was a lot lower a few weeks back but it didn't reach my $25 target, so I was watching the price action around the $30 resistance level and today's break above it and the Stage 2 breakout in the broad market made up my mind to take my profit and move on to something else.
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Old Jan 17, 2012, 10:02pm   #230
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread The market couldn't hold onto the breakout today. So is not Stage 2 yet.
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Old Jan 19, 2012, 2:30am   #231
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Today's move (18th) and close above 1300 on the S&P 500 moves us into a new Stage. I'm undecided personally whether it's Stage 1B or a fledgling Stage 2A. But it's still got some work to do to get through the resistance above it and break out to new highs on a decent Stage 2 run. So I expect to see some back and forth for a while in this new higher range if it can close the week above 1300.

I personally went long the Nasdaq 100 due to the better relative strength it's shown and lesser amount of resistance it has to overcome to break out to new highs and hopefully a decent Stage 2 run.

The other Stage 2 continuation of note today was Apple (AAPL) which broke out to new all time highs. A measured move from this last consolidation gives me a swing target of 499.
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Old Jan 21, 2012, 7:07pm   #232
 
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UK Sectors

isatrader started this thread I haven't had a look at the UK sectors for a while. But with last weeks breakouts in the broad markets I thought it might be a good time to re-look at them and see which have the best technical setup to outperform the market in the coming months.

Attached is the charts
Attached Thumbnails
uk_sectors_list_20_1_12.png   uk_sectors_1_20_1_12.png   uk_sectors_2_20_1_12.png  

uk_sectors_3_20_1_12.png   uk_sectors_4-2_20_1_12.png  
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Old Jan 22, 2012, 3:14pm   #233
 
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Major charts for analysis

isatrader started this thread Attached is the major charts for analysis.
Attached Thumbnails
spx_weekly_20_1_12.png   gc_weekly_20_1_12.png   hg_weekly_20_1_12.png  

cl_weekly_20_1_12.png   us30_treasuries_20_1_12.png   ty10_treasuries_20_1_12.png  

dx_dollar_weekly_20_1_12.png  
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Old Jan 23, 2012, 1:10am   #234
 
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US Industry Sectors

isatrader started this thread Attached is my US Industry Sector Stan Weinstein charts. There's been a noticeable shift in the sectors over the last month or so to a more bullish posture with all the charts now out of Stage 4 and at least in Stage 1, and a few more are now close to full Stage 2 breakouts. Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care are all in Stage 1B, and Consumer Staples looks to be making an attempt at a Stage 2 continuation move after pulling back to retest it's breakout level.
Attached Thumbnails
industry_sectors_20_1_12.png  
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Old Jan 23, 2012, 1:27am   #235
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Attached is my updated secondary indicator chart of the S&P 500 which shows the Momentum Index (p284 in the book), which is the 200 day moving average of the NYSE Advance Decline line. It shows that last weeks breakout above 1300 was supported broadly by stocks across the entire New York Stock Exchange.

The other two indicators are my personal indicators of which the middle one measures the speed of the 30 week weighted moving average and the bottom indicator measures the distance price is above the 30 week weighted moving average.
Attached Thumbnails
spx_momentum_20_1_12.png   spx_momentum_daily_20_1_12.png  
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Old Jan 25, 2012, 2:52pm   #236
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

hi isatrader,

I'm a fans of Stan Weinstein and I just found your thread today.
Keep it up and I'll read from page #1 before I can contribute any.
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Old Jan 25, 2012, 2:54pm   #237
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader,

by the way what charting software r u using?
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Old Jan 25, 2012, 3:20pm   #238
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Thanks incrediblefx, I hope you'll join in the discussion once you've read through the thread.

As for my charting software. It's an end of day program for the mac called ProTA. Here's the link to the company that makes it: ProTA: Mac OS X Stock Market Charting and Technical Analysis Software
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Old Jan 26, 2012, 5:38am   #239
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

Hi isatrader,

yes sure I will join.
I had been trading shortterm as scalper for past 3 years. There is little meat and full of stress.
After going through such a tough period and seeing my brother gaining more than 1000% of his investment just by sitting, I finally see why I should follow Stan's way of doing.

I'm using amibroker and looking for cost effective EOD provider. Anyone to recommend?
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Old Jan 26, 2012, 9:55am   #240
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread For brokers it's a bit of a coin toss as all have advantages and disadvantages depending on what you want to trade. I personally use CMC Markets CFDs for my short term trading and trade my long term stocks in an ISA, which is a tax efficient nominee account for UK residents where you buy the actual stocks in the market. Others on here use all sorts of brokers, such as IG Markets, Interactive Brokers etc. It all really depends on what markets you want to trade and what is available to you in Singapore. But if you want to hold stocks for a long time having the actual shares is always better imo as the margin based brokers will eat into any gains through their various fees as they are not meant for long term holdings.
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