Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by isatrader I been focusing on finding some long term trades that have less correlation to the market ...

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Old Dec 1, 2011, 11:03pm   #101
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Re: EURAUD Stage Analysis

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Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
I been focusing on finding some long term trades that have less correlation to the market moves, and currencies seem to be a good option for this. Attached is the monthly, weekly and daily charts for the EUR/AUD forex pair....
I read this thread with interest, so thanks to you both for keeping it going. For your relative strength component, you chart strength relative to the GSPC, but, as the relevant market is the currency market, would it be better, for example, to look at only the $ pairs and chart them against for example either the DXY (or the inverse of the DXY) or gold?
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Old Dec 1, 2011, 11:13pm   #102
 
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Re: EURAUD Stage Analysis

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Originally Posted by lplate View Post
I read this thread with interest, so thanks to you both for keeping it going. For your relative strength component, you chart strength relative to the GSPC, but, as the relevant market is the currency market, would it be better, for example, to look at only the $ pairs and chart them against for example either the DXY (or the inverse of the DXY) or gold?
You can use any measure you want for relative performance really. The method is based around stocks, so the S&P 500 is the key metric for that. But for commodities you might compare against the CRB index or the CCI index, and for currencies like you say the DXY could be used. It all depends on what you are aiming to outperform, but the S&P 500 is used for the base comparison generally.
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Old Dec 2, 2011, 10:03am   #103
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isa - if you have time would you be able to do me a daily chart with how you see the shorter term stage analysis for a year. i understand if no time.
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Old Dec 2, 2011, 10:09am   #104
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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isa - if you have time would you be able to do me a daily chart with how you see the shorter term stage analysis for a year. i understand if no time.
I'm out this morning, but should be able to do it later on.
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Old Dec 2, 2011, 12:17pm   #105
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread This is my first attempt at making a video, so I've done a quick stage analysis of Gold.

To watch it click on the following link to the video:

http://www.screencast.com/t/GvBOOcPy3

or you can click on the larger image below.

I hope it's clear and makes sense? But hopefully I'll get better once I do a few more.

Click the image to open in full size.
Attached Thumbnails
gc_thumb_1_12_11.png  
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Last edited by isatrader; Dec 3, 2011 at 1:29am.
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Old Dec 3, 2011, 10:15am   #106
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

Thanks for your reply on currency, isa.
Thanks for video too - tech always takes more time and effort than you expect!
I study gold just simply on the basis of what I leant from the book and from Alan Saunders, who has studied Weinstein for years. ShareHunter
Weekly I think gold is going sideways, a bit like the stockmarket. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91201552877
As I understand it, if you rode the stage 2, then you hold till the break down of stage 3, which would be 1612 or 1535, according to how you view emotional tails. You are holding in the possibility of a continuation up, i.e. on a break of 1900 or 1923, according to how you view emotional wicks.
Daily it looks even less clear, so I can't see the Weinstein interpretation except to leave it alone. Shorter-term traders would be looking at the triangle, and it could go either way. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79751426216
What I would "expect", though I would not put money on it until the moves have started, is a break down move out of the triangle on the daily and then an up move on the weekly.
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Old Dec 3, 2011, 1:47pm   #107
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

nice video. if you could reduce size a bit would be better..the force index wasnt shown. nor half of daily chart.

if you were to do stage analysis and trade off daily charts(i accept you dont), but what period moving average would you use
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Old Dec 3, 2011, 2:08pm   #108
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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nice video. if you could reduce size a bit would be better..the force index wasnt shown. nor half of daily chart.

if you were to do stage analysis and trade off daily charts(i accept you dont), but what period moving average would you use
I thought that might happen as I'm on a 27" screen. You should be able to use the vertical and horizontal scroll bars in your browser to move around though. I might have to make some mini sized versions of my charts to fit on a more standard screen size setting, plus it'd make the file size of the video a bit smaller too.

I like to keep the charts pure to the method whatever timescale it's on. So I always use the 30 bar weighted MA on all charts, as that's how I can best see the stages personally. I use it just the same on 15 minute charts as on the weekly. So when I'm trying to enter a position I go down to the intra-day charts, 15min, 30min, 1hr, 4hr etc and try to make sure they all look ok.

If you are going to solely use the daily though I think it's important to add the 30 week MA to your daily chart, as the weekly stages are most important. For example you might be looking good on the daily, but running in to the falling 30 week MA and not knowing. So you want to add 150 day weighted MA as a proxy for the 30 week MA (i.e. 5 days x 30 week weighted MA = 150 days) to see where you are likely to get some major resistance.
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Old Dec 3, 2011, 2:26pm   #109
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Here's a recent interview with Stan Weinstein from the 12th November where he talks in detail about the method. Thanks to theblackmamba for finding this.

Here's the link: Technician Stan Weinstein: Markets Still in Neutral Territory, Still Opportunities to Make Money Jim and you need to skip to about a quarter of the way into the recording to get to the start of Stan's interview.
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Old Dec 3, 2011, 2:27pm   #110
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

just played it again, and it works this time...i was aving a senior mo....soz...

your force index is it a variation of elders force, as mine looks diff.
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