Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by theblackmamba what you think of this as a potential traders entrance... had a 4 then a pullback ...

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Old Nov 28, 2011, 4:35pm   #71
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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what you think of this as a potential traders entrance... had a 4 then a pullback to 30wma.. now if starts falling dsay below 350 with stop above 383?
It's an interesting one. The Oil & Gas Producers Sector is outperforming the market currently and has pulled back to support. PMO.L however, is under performing it's sector, but performing inline with the market - which is in a downtrend. On the daily the trendline support is around 345 and on the weekly there's a rising trendline at 320, so I'm not sure I'd personally take it as the risk reward ratio is only about 1:1 for a short term play unless you bring you stop in tighter above the daily 30 week MA around 365.

So it's a weak stock, in a strong sector, in a weak market. So I think the method would say pass, as the key is to only try and pick the A+ winners and avoid the mediocre ones. It might go down, but if you are using the method you'd want a weak stock, in a weak sector, in a weak market for shorting candidates I think.
Attached Thumbnails
pmo_weekly_25_11_11.png   pmo_rs_weekly_25_11_11.png   oil_gas_prod_weekly_25_11_11.png  

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Old Nov 28, 2011, 4:38pm   #72
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

not sure if it interests you, but have gone through about the top1000 uk shares this afternoon, and these are the ones i found interesting..

long aey aht aie arm avon bkg car cct cpp dia fenr ged hyr inppipr itm jlf pay phnx prv pure qq ror weir wtm.

short aal abc afr ashm bba bee blnd blt boy bram brby brwm bvic cbg ccc chw clln cne cpp cscg csrt dcg dia dtc dvo efm enq fcs fdsa fgp fum gpor gss has hfd hl hlma hmso hoc hri iem ihg imi inf ipf itrk jdw jmf kaz kmr lad land lse lsp mgcr mjw mks mpi mrc mul nex nii oml pmo rsl rsw safe sdl sgro shb sks smdr smin srp sthr stob sxs tem tmpl tpk utg vct wpp xar...
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 4:52pm   #73
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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Originally Posted by theblackmamba View Post
not sure if it interests you, but have gone through about the top1000 uk shares this afternoon, and these are the ones i found interesting..

long aey aht aie arm avon bkg car cct cpp dia fenr ged hyr inppipr itm jlf pay phnx prv pure qq ror weir wtm.

short aal abc afr ashm bba bee blnd blt boy bram brby brwm bvic cbg ccc chw clln cne cpp cscg csrt dcg dia dtc dvo efm enq fcs fdsa fgp fum gpor gss has hfd hl hlma hmso hoc hri iem ihg imi inf ipf itrk jdw jmf kaz kmr lad land lse lsp mgcr mjw mks mpi mrc mul nex nii oml pmo rsl rsw safe sdl sgro shb sks smdr smin srp sthr stob sxs tem tmpl tpk utg vct wpp xar...
What you need to do to filter them further is sort the sectors by relative strength. Attached is the list as of 25/11 sorted by strongest sector at the top to weakest at the bottom since the October low.
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sector_rs_25_11_11.png  
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 4:55pm   #74
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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wat you think to ppc? on weekly broke out stage 1?, then pulled back, now looking to go off again.
only thing is breakout volume was low?
Poor relative strength, a lot of resistance to work through and no 2x the 4 week average volume increase on the breakout. I'd say it's now in Stage 1B. It might go higher, but it doesn't meet the methods requirements.

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do you find uk volume on breakouts work? i must admit in all years i traded ive ignored it as there not a lot of it in general unlike usa shares
US stocks are easier to see the volume changes on the straight volume chart like your previous good example, but I think it still works on UK stocks, but because of the thinner volumes I use cumulative force index to decipher it, by looking for a build in volume above it's moving average and positive divergence.
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 5:00pm   #75
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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I noticed both of your picks are stocks that have fallen hard like the market has and so have resistance to fight through still. A big component of the method relative performance versus the market. You want to buy strength and sell weakness, so I'll give you an example of one of my current trades to illustrate this. The market trend was down when I bought this, so it breaks the rules a bit, but I think it's a good example of a good relative strength stock breaking out and currently retesting the breakout level. It might fail because the market is still negative, but has potential to move higher because of the size of the base and lack of resistance above it.
must admit as a rule i do prefer the rolls royce type chart to the aml, atk eg i gave you..
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 5:11pm   #76
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

i not doing too well so far......lol
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 5:17pm   #77
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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i not doing too well so far......lol
I think you're picking it up quite quickly. I've been working on my understanding of it for nearly a year now and I still keep making mistakes. I also need to sort myself out a check list to look at and am planning on rereading the book again this month as the shorting section seems particularly important to understand at the moment.
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