Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; US Industry Sectors chart attached...

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Old Dec 15, 2011, 9:20am   #151
 
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US Industry Sectors

isatrader started this thread US Industry Sectors chart attached
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us_industry_sectors_14_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 15, 2011, 10:49pm   #152
 
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DUK - Duke Energy

isatrader started this thread Duke Energy (DUK) made a 4 year high closing 0.2 above it's recent high at 21.04 today.

The all time high is at 21.30 in 2007 and the initial Stage 2 breakout was in September, but if it can close this week above 21.02 then that should be good confirmation that the Stage 2 rally is continuing into it's next phase for the time being and that it could break out to new all time highs.

XLU (Utilities) is the strongest industry sector currently and the ^DJUSMU (Dow Jones US Multiutilities Index) is tracking fairly closely with the S&P 500 at the moment. DUK is outperforming both it's industry sector and sub-sector and the volume has had a significant increase since the Stage 2 breakout in September. So I'm going ot be watching this one closely tomorrow and will likely take a position if it looks like it will close the week above 21.02

Attached is my charts
Attached Thumbnails
duk_weekly_15_12_11.png   duk_weekly_rs_15_12_11.png   duk_monthly_15_12_11.png  

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Old Dec 17, 2011, 12:14am   #153
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread I'm pleased with the results so far. The trades are outperforming the S&P 500 by a good margin and have made a good profit while the market has moved lower over the same period, which is really encouraging.

I was a little impatient with DUK today and got in fairly early in the day after the first pullback to the breakout point. So my entry price was 21.08, but it closed the day lower at 21.01, however, this is still a new weekly closing all time high. So I'll see where it takes me now. But I forgot to mention yesterday the nice 4.8% dividend, so it's certainly one I can hold on to if it goes to plan.

I also shorted SPD.L (Sports Direct) today at 207 as it made a Stage 4 breakdown yesterday and retested the break today. So my target on that one is 160.

Current Open Trades

Shorts
Silver
Sports Direct

Longs
Spectra Energy
Rolls Royce
Reynolds American
GBP/EUR
YUM Brands
Brown Forman Corp
Duke Energy
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Old Dec 17, 2011, 9:04pm   #154
 
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US 30 Year Treasuries Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Below is the latest US 30 Year Treasuries chart which I believe is very important at the moment as it highlights the risk off trade. Price bounced off the trend line and and made a new weekly closing high and now looks set to test the September high this week. If it breaks out then the risk off trade would be back on and equities could sell off again. One thing to note is that volume was fairly light on lasts weeks move higher though.

Below is the charts
Attached Thumbnails
us-30-year-treasuries_16_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 18, 2011, 7:56pm   #155
 
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Gold Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread The weekly chart for Gold has moved into Stage 3 now, with price finding support this week at the 3 year trend line. Volume has been leaving Gold as you can see in the cumulative volume, but price is near the bottom of the Stage 3 range so there’s a possibility of a bounce soon. Especially as there a number of factors supporting Gold in the 1550 to 1600 area.

To become long term Stage 4 I’d personally want to see a close below the 3 year trend line and a move below 1535.

Here’s the chart
Attached Thumbnails
gc_weekly_16_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 19, 2011, 12:04pm   #156
 
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AUDUSD Stage analysis

isatrader started this thread It's been a while since I looked at the AUDUSD weekly chart on 22nd September http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1681978, but it has played out very closely with the stage analysis.

On the current chart the Stage 4 breakdown continues to work itself out with a succession of lower highs. The recent double bottom made it look like it might reverse course, but price has been held down by the trendline and the falling 30 week MA. Cumulative volume has now turned negative and relative performance vs S&P 500 is under performing. So it could get a move down to retest the recent low and support zone around 0.94 and if it closes down there then it would complete a large one year head and shoulder pattern which would signal a larger down move.

Attached is the latest weekly chart and also the previous chart from Sept 22 to compare.
Attached Thumbnails
audusd_weekly_18_12_11.png   audusd_stages_21_9_11.png  
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Old Dec 19, 2011, 3:22pm   #157
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

like you i am pleased with my results so far. they would be better if i hhadn't done some numbskull trades, but i guess thats the learning curve. as of friday this portfolio was up 1 percent whilst the ftse was down about two percent so relatively better.
current trades are
long - img, oxig
short - essr , mjw, fosl, spd, spt, sthr, spotgold, safe.

am halfway through an interesting book on jesse livermore, and a few points spring to mind. trade in the direction of least resistence. at the moment this is sideways/slightly down in ftse100, and sideways in sp500, so i keep telling myself be patient dont jusp in to everytrade. take the best afterall its best to do 200 trades in a year averageing 500 quid profit per trade, rather than 300 trades averaging 300 pertrade...
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Old Dec 19, 2011, 4:55pm   #158
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread I think one of the important things I've taken from the Livermore book that applies to the Weinstein method is evaluating continuation pivotal points, as these help you stay in through the entire Stage 2.

Quote from the page 77 of the book - How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore
"I define a Continuation Pivotal Points as a consolidation where the stock pauses in it's ascent, as a general sometimes pauses in a major assault to let his supply lines catch up to his troops and provide his men with a rest. It is usually a natural reaction of the stock. The prudent speculator, however, will carefully observe which way the stock will emerge from this consolidation, and not anticipate."

I highlighted the last sentence as I think it's important to take in.
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Old Dec 19, 2011, 5:19pm   #159
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Really nice example of the stages 2, 3 and 4 on the FTSE and DAX intraday charts today.

Also added the S&P 500 chart as is perfect today. Moving into Stage 1 now.
Attached Thumbnails
screen-shot-2011-12-19-16.18.23.png   screen-shot-2011-12-19-18.52.07.png  
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Old Dec 19, 2011, 6:23pm   #160
 
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MO (Altria Group) Stage 2 continuation

isatrader started this thread I've been searching through the strongest sectors and one that stands out is Tobacco, as it has 3 stocks on Stage 2 continuation breakouts. PM, RAI, & MO. Confirmation of other stocks in the same sector is one of the key components of Weinstein's method, so it is very encouraging to see as I'm already in RAI.

I don't want to take a new positions in MO yet because of my exposure in RAI, and also because the breakout point has been missed. But, I thought MO was interesting as it's had an increase in volume on the breakout and has started to outperform RAI, so it may actually be a better play. However, I intend to wait for the first major pullback for a Continuation Pivotal Point to form as that will give me a chance to raise my stop loss above breakeven on RAI if all is going to plan and free up capital to trade MO.

Here's the charts
Attached Thumbnails
mo_weekly_19_12_11.png   mo_weekly_rs_19_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 12:25pm   #161
 
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Hochschild Mining (HOC.L) Stage 4

isatrader started this thread Another way to play the recent precious metals breakdown is through the PM stocks. Of which, Hochschild Mining (HOC.L) is currently making a fresh Stage 4 breakdown.
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hoc_weekly_19_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 8:59pm   #162
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Am liking today's short covering rally. All of my open positions have moved into profit for the first time together. And DUK and SE have made new all time highs. Hopefully, it will continue.
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Old Dec 21, 2011, 12:47am   #163
 
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US Industry Sectors

isatrader started this thread Here's the latest US Industry Sectors charts. Utilities (XLU) continues to outperform with Consumer Staples (XLP) close to breaking out into a Stage 2 continuation. So it's worth looking through the Consumer Staples sub sectors to see what's outperforming and filter down to the individual stocks from there.
Attached Thumbnails
us_industry_sectors_20-12-11.png  
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Old Dec 21, 2011, 2:43am   #164
 
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Pfizer (PFE) Stage 2 Breakout

isatrader started this thread Pfizer (PFE) made a Stage 2 breakout with a 52 week high yesterday (20th). The Industry sector (Health Care) and the sub sector (Pharmaceuticals) both look reasonable. Pfizer is outperforming both of them by roughly 8% and is also outperforming the S&P 500 by the same amount. So the relative performance requirement is in place.

What I need to see now is a pick up in volume if it breaks higher, but if I take it, I'll only take a half position as recommended by the buying guide section as this is an investor entry point. With the idea to buy the remaining half position after the first continuation pivotal point is formed.

The monthly shows there's old resistance from the 2005 and 2006 range up to $29, but that still gives it room to move and old resistance is over 2 years old and so is less relevant.

Daily ATR(200) is: 0.42 points average movement per day or 1.96% as a percentage.
Weekly ATR(52) is: 0.89 points average movement per week or 4.15% as a percentage.

The investor stop position below $18 is over 8x the daily ATR(200), so a closer stop below $19.70 might be more suitable using the daily chart. But for the least risk you would need to wait for the breakout to pullback and form a new pivot point.

Here's the charts
Attached Thumbnails
pfe_weekly_20_12_11.png   pfe_weekly_rs_20_12_11.png   pfe_monthly_20_12_11.png  

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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Old Dec 21, 2011, 1:46pm   #165
 
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S&P 500 Stocks Sectors

isatrader started this thread I've set up a blog so I can organise all the stuff in this thread and I've made a page that has the S&P 500 stocks listed with their industry sector and their sub-sector. It has a search facility so you just need to type the ticker or the stock name or the sector and it will find it. Here's the link: S&P 500 « Stage Analysis
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