Market analysis using P/V, TL and AVDVd

• stage 1 uptrend since Oct-02 (confirmed with this month's high exceeding that of January's by 19-20 points)
• price keeps sinking below the Jan resistance level, currently below it. Also, price has stalled under increasing volume, and is now falling.

• stage 2 uptrend since Aug-04
• price action bearish (tightening daily ranges, the shart drop on 12/7 on high vol, and further stalls/drops on 16th/17th/18th)

• at the most recent price extremes (last week or 2), we're going down, and the last two
  positive divergence peaks show a downward slope.
• something I found interesting is that you can plot an upward trendline with the negative AVDVd extremes at Jan-03, Sep-03 and Apr-04. Meanwhile you can also plot a (relatively sharper) downtrend with the positive AVDVd extremes at Jan-04 and Nov-04, with close visits at May & Sep. Not sure if this points to something significant. Maybe converging demand & supply?

• AVDVd turned up a couple of days ago but the low pretty much matches the one set on December 7th. The two most positive peaks still make a downtrend.

• uptrend since March 2003 (confirmed with Nov04 high exceeding the one set in Mar04)
• supply-side pressure on Apr-May04, Jul04 and Oct04, followed by good strength 1st week of
  Nov. Price stalling in recent weeks on increased volume.

• confirms bearish action (tightening daily ranges, the shart drop on 12/7 on high vol, and
  further drops on 16th/17th)

• at the most recent price extremes (last week or 2), AVDVd is going down, and the last two
  positive divergence peaks make a sharp downward slope, the last peak barely making it above the zero line. Extremes in July & Oct 2002 haven't been bested yet.

• lower negative peak on the 7th, lower positive peak on the 13th. Current downward slope
  although slope is losing some of its steepness.

CipherinFool said:

If charts help and I am able to post them, let me know and I will.

CF

Click to expand...

CipherinFool said:

Hi,

Here's my market analysis as guided by the discussion in dbphoenix's "Stalking the Wild Equity" file. I point out the few things I notice about price/volume relationship, and then discuss what the trendlines and the AVDVd (Advancing Volume / Declining Volume differential) tell me.

The symbols $COMPQ, $NAUD, $NYA, AND $NYUD are, respectively, the NASDAQ Composite Index, NASDAQ AVDVd, NYSE Index, and NYSE AVDVd. These can be viewed at stockcharts.com. btw I use the shorthand "mmm-YY" (e.g. "Jan-04") to save typing.

If charts help and I am able to post them, let me know and I will.

$COMPQ
weekly chart : compq-3y-weekly.gif

• stage 1 uptrend since Oct-02 (confirmed with this month's high exceeding that of January's by 19-20 points)
• price keeps sinking below the Jan resistance level, currently below it. Also, price has stalled under increasing volume, and is now falling.

daily chart: compq-6m-daily.gif

• stage 2 uptrend since Aug-04, and a stage 3 uptrend since Oct-04 which is now changing due to yesterday's price drop.
• price action bearish (tightening daily ranges, the shart drop on 12/7 on high vol, and further stalls/drops on 16th/17th/20th)

$NAUD
weekly chart: naud-2y-weekly.gif

• at the most recent price extremes (last week or 2), we're going down, and the last two
  positive divergence peaks show a downward slope.
• something I found interesting is that you can plot an upward trendline with the negative AVDVd extremes at Jan-03, Sep-03 and Apr-04. Meanwhile you can also plot a (relatively sharper) downtrend with the positive AVDVd extremes at Jan-04 and Nov-04, with close visits at May & Sep. Not sure if this points to something significant. Maybe converging demand & supply?

daily chart: naud-6m-daily.gif

• AVDVd turned up a couple of days ago but the low pretty much matches the one set on December 7th. The two most positive peaks still make a downtrend. Update: it turned back down on 12/20.

$NYA
weekly chart: nya-3y-weekly.gif

• uptrend since March 2003 (confirmed with Nov-04 high exceeding the one set in Mar-04)
• supply-side pressure on Apr/May-04, Jul-04 and Oct-04, followed by good strength 1st week of Nov but with volume trailing off the rest of the month. Price has stalled in recent weeks on increased volume.

daily chart: nya-6m-daily.gif

• confirms bearish action (tightening daily ranges, the shart drop on 12/7 on high vol, and
  further drops on 16th/17th, plus the weak up-day on the 20th, on weak volume)

$NYUD
weekly chart: nyud-2y-weekly.gif

• The breakout on the 1st week of November actually resulted in a lower AVDVd peak than that set in late Sep.
• at the most recent price extremes (last week or 2), AVDVd is going up
• negative divergence extremes seem to be rising since Mar-04, similar to the $NAUD weekly. Also the recent divergences aren't far from the zero line.

daily chart: nyud-6m-daily.gif

• at the last price extreme (high on Dec. 15th/16th), AVDVd peaks were positive but sloping down.

Conclusions
I'm guessing the markets are stalling, and need to be monitored to see if they can convincingly
move up and if the AVDVd will confirm strength in demand to accompany that. If not then look for a trend change or reversal.

Comments welcome!

Regards,
CF

Click to expand...