Have the equities topped after Ben's speech today?

The S&P is very top heavy and the equities I was either in or watching are coming off the highs.

What do you think?

MIke Hamilton

Hi Mike,

SPY and QQQQ have risen in a very smooth line since September yet their avg daily volume has fallen in a similarly smooth line during the same period. Most of the higher volume days have been down days. Divergence between price and volume is an excellent warning sign, but I see no real confirmation of a break downward yet. There's no real hurry to call a top. If we get a correction there's enough potential downside movement to catch a nice piece without calling the exact top.

Just my opinion

Peter

Great detail. I agree with you. I think my call is anearly signal but no confirmation yet. Ben's speech (Mr Benancke) could tip us down for a while. Oil is always a good measure too.

Watch this space. I rely on TA but I was brought up with fundamentals, and love to mix both; works well for me.

http://screencast.com/t/xr3i0u3jZbN

Mike Hamilton

After 3 days of selling I think we still have further to go. The S&P needs to at least retest the 50 ema.

Mike Hamilton

I think equities look robust, some buy signals coming in from where i'm viewing the market. I think the retail crowd are getting a little carried away with the bear case, pro traders are aware the trend is their friend until it ends and there is good arguement to be buying into this weakness.....

Any idea why most stocks are appearing as "Call to deal" on IGIndex today? (haven't checked other sites)

LSE has halted the market due to streetwide market data issues, you can trade on Chi-X and Turqoise but obviously liquidity isnt as strong, having said that still been in and out of BARC for 1.4% this morning. Orders getting filled slowly LSE have also stated those orders that did get filled in the brief auction this morning will stand

having just posted Chi-X is now also down

alloy said:

I think equities look robust, some buy signals coming in from where i'm viewing the market. I think the retail crowd are getting a little carried away with the bear case, pro traders are aware the trend is their friend until it ends and there is good arguement to be buying into this weakness.....

Click to expand...

We may see some further weakness into early next week before resuming upward- a shakeout of the retail traders.

Peter

S&P futures are holding support at 1300 ahead of US jobs on Friday. Today's data is very positive and Benancke may even holding back the dollar printing presses. We'll see.

Mike

:clover:

US equities holding up very well. I'm looking for them to break up. A lot of doom mongers out there but the charts don't show any lack of confidence. Jobs and GDP are loking up.

Mike Hamilton

More experience and observation than anything i can substantiate, but you rarely see a market top with price action like we have seen for the past fortnight, especially with the middle east issues adding more concern to investors, the fact we haven't seen any "significant" follow through on the bears behalf gives me confidence in a resumption of the uptrend.

Bloomberg story yesterday noting Birinyi “While there will be corrections and while there will be pauses, we’re still of the view that this is a bull market that we expect to go on for several years.” which is as far as i am concerned totally agreeable. Couple of other points to note from the story are stats, "Even after almost doubling in 24 months, the S&P 500’s two- year return is 36 percentage points below the average bull- market gain of 131 percent since 1962, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates. The 730-day rally without a decline of 20 percent or more compares with an average duration of 1,407 days, the data show."

Equities are drofting lower ere and set to retest support. The Nasdaq is leading after suffering from stocks effected by Japan's earthquake.

Mike Hamilton

Pretty much agree with you. Even after retesting at 1300, I don't know how much higher we go in the short term, 3-4 months out if oil keeps rising. It's possible we've seen a temporary high. If ES doesn't break through the high sometime later in the week there's a potential for a very nice drop as many longs will be looking to exit.

Peter

Oil is a big factor, but US$ is so weak it has less effect on the US but more effect in the UK as the GBP is weaker than the Euro here so far.

Data in the uS has been poitive this year, but sectors such as chips, transport and financials are dipping. All a question of what we do at the 50 ema. I think it will hold, but we still have Libya and Japan in the back ground and the effct of both are creeping in slowly with factories going on short time with parts shortgaes in some places.

Good to hear your views Peter.

Mike

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ebt-to-avoid-cold-turkey-end-to-stimulus.html

This could keep the markets happy over the summer but then what?

Mike

It seems the FED really doesn't know what it wants to do. End QE now? later? keep it going? etc... If the FED appears too uncertain the markets will crash. In my opinion if the FED just made a very definitive statement they can then do the opposite later if necessary and it won't be as bad. Curiosity didn't kill the cat, uncertainty did!

On a different angle.... ES hit the 1300 mark. My take is if it closes under 1300 this week then we could see 1250, which is the next decent support zone. Otherwise, we move back up from here.

Peter