Day Trading & Forex Forum

shadowninja

I am just explaining the reason for the negativity towards you. Happy trading.

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The markets can stay solvent longer than you can stay irrational.


Check out my blog if you're new to trading or skip the advice and obtain fame and riches beyond your wildest dreams the easy way but you might end up a bit like this.

Mister7

I forgot to post on this forum but I have been long EUR/USD since roughly 10 new York this morning. I have been up 30 or so pips at one point but I am holding out for a retracement into either the .382 or slightly above the .500 Fibs in the former resistance area around 1.3375. Much of this trade target will depend upon on momentum into the London market.

Mister7

Why Long?

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First and Foremost remember this, you can never control or predict the market, you can merely let it tell you what it's doing, that being said we look for probability based on repeating patterns, Two big ones for me Fibs and waves, Elliot etc. I look for big moves to come to an end, how do I know for sure? Price tells me by making higher highs or lower lows respective to the move, the first one is a change in direction the second one is a confirmation, entry can take place there with the stop at the newly defined high or low of the market, the target would depend on the time of day and a fib retracement level accordingly.

Here is my chart, as I post this it is on the move, why is it on the move now?
Because traders are entering the market in anticipation of London. This trade is far from over but I will adjust my stop to compensate as I make gains by trailing two minor lows back.

The large move down was a five count Elliot, with a corrective a b c pattern, I bring this up not because it was my initial reason for entering (based more on Fib actually) but because the Elliot c wave should retrace to the fourth wave area, which in this case happens to be a fib line. It's the ability to see the synchroncity that can lead to a successful trade. There will always be the one that doesn't work, but we are dealing with probability versus mathematical fallacy.

I would also suggest being careful with trend lines, they are not necessary to see the highs or lows if you get used to using charts as a line as opposed to bars or candles. But drawing a line is merely a line, price will not respect that line just because we draw it, it will still respect the highs or lows (True S & R) far more often than a diagonal line we place on the chart. Price moves in surges of buyers and sellers, these waves can be clearly seen, let them talk to you in a way you understand, this takes time, but when you start to listen to what they say, you will know what to risk and what to target.

Another big secret is what I refer to as weight in the market, moves or waves tend to have opposing reactions equal to or greater than the cause in many cases. I sometime project that weight into the future as aid in target selection as well.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/522...0408235834.gif

Mister7

The price has for the first time breached the .382 Fib line. This would be a conservative exit, and once again proves that price probability does exist. It will not work all of the time but it works better than 50% and that is all the edge you need with proper money management.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/522...0408235834.gif

Trader333

You have an interesting approach which I cannot fully see as the charts you post are still difficult to see, are you able to attach them to your posts ?


Paul

Mister7

I will try and capture at higher resolution. And will eventually do a video or two that will make it much clearer and assist you in understanding my viewpoints.

Price is war...

A market making new highs is rising, Buyers are winning

A market making new lows is falling, Sellers are winning

When is the war on? When are the troops sleeping?

Price is territory that Buyers and Sellers are at War for.

What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Buyers to achieve if they won the battle today?

What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Seller's to achieve if they won the battle today?

You will choose a side to be on, you will watch to see who early on is winning the battle, and make your choice, you will know where your choice would be proved wrong, you will expect to take the earliest profit that justifies your risk in relation to the overall goal of the team you have chosen.

If your team is really kicking the other's ass, you might go for a larger portion of their probable win for the day.

If you were wrong, you were wrong, you will fight another day.

You will not become Happy when you win, you will not become Angry when you lose.

You will be right slightly more than you are wrong, and you will judge your risk and reward based upon this fact.

You will gain slow and steady equity.

Trader333

Yes I can see where you are coming from. In your analogy do you also think that at certain key levels there may be reserve troops who could halt an advance or if not at least temporarily slow it down. Depending on what happens here a move to next defensive position is probable depending on the price action ?


Paul

Mister7

Price will answer that for you, at any front, especially a front that has had more than one failed attempt, there is a higher and higher probability of that front not being breached, and the advancing troops are forced back, The golden mean is a great tool for estimating how far they will retreat.