Very simple trend-following set-up

This is a discussion on Very simple trend-following set-up within the Swing & Position Trading forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by barjon a touch of the Tate & Lyles then. Another 'orrible gap recently to go with the ...

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Old Feb 10, 2015, 6:05pm   #9
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a touch of the Tate & Lyles then. Another 'orrible gap recently to go with the one that turned a few of your hairs grey some years ago. Was T&L wasn't it?
No, I don't think that I have had the pleasure of that one. Can't remember. There've been so many.

But, hey, there've been some good ones, too.
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Old Feb 10, 2015, 10:28pm   #10
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The interesting set of rules you post should be back-testable, did you? I think these sorts of methods work best in fx in so far as trends tend to be long and sustained with relatively modest corrections compared to the rapid on-trend moves but what proportion of a move do you miss before the signal fires ? The set-up requires quite some confirmation.
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Old Feb 10, 2015, 10:52pm   #11
 
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The interesting set of rules you post should be back-testable, did you? I think these sorts of methods work best in fx in so far as trends tend to be long and sustained with relatively modest corrections compared to the rapid on-trend moves but what proportion of a move do you miss before the signal fires ? The set-up requires quite some confirmation.
Hey, if this thread is bringing the old stars back into the fray then more power to it. Nice to see you
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Old Feb 10, 2015, 11:35pm   #12
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The interesting set of rules you post should be back-testable, did you? I think these sorts of methods work best in fx in so far as trends tend to be long and sustained with relatively modest corrections compared to the rapid on-trend moves but what proportion of a move do you miss before the signal fires ? The set-up requires quite some confirmation.

Hi TWI - You're no doubt correct on both counts - I was being a bit optimistic thinking that these guidelines could simply be transferred across verbatim into e.g. equities - which I have found nothing like as trend-friendly as most major forex pairs. Maybe the principles would apply but some variation might be needed to customise the approach per market sector.

I absolutely accept the loss of a major chunk of price change at the start of a trend - it probably takes about 2 months for enough of my "traffic lights" to go green before I would even look at entering a position. And that can be quite a quite a significant % move. But, hey, this is trend-following, so if there's no trend, I would simply move on to another chart where there is a viable trend, or wait for one to print. Maybe one day I'll have to work on or steal a break-out strategy but this isn't the time. Cheerio!
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 6:38am   #13
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Hi TWI - You're no doubt correct on both counts - I was being a bit optimistic thinking that these guidelines could simply be transferred across verbatim into e.g. equities - which I have found nothing like as trend-friendly as most major forex pairs. Maybe the principles would apply but some variation might be needed to customise the approach per market sector.

I absolutely accept the loss of a major chunk of price change at the start of a trend - it probably takes about 2 months for enough of my "traffic lights" to go green before I would even look at entering a position. And that can be quite a quite a significant % move. But, hey, this is trend-following, so if there's no trend, I would simply move on to another chart where there is a viable trend, or wait for one to print. Maybe one day I'll have to work on or steal a break-out strategy but this isn't the time. Cheerio!
Hi, Tom,

I've, always, followed you since the Big Ben days. What prevents me from being more than an interested reader, here, is the 2 month wait! Ouch! My patience is limited more to the time I have left at my disposal. I am 83 in April!
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 7:01am   #14
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tomorton started this thread Well done Split, I had no idea!

Actually, the 2 month wait is obviously only per chart - at the moment I am watching the 16 major currency pairs offered by the SB company I use, plus 16 minors, plus 4 what they call 'exotics',plus Gold. I am currently short on 2 majors but I have entry set-ups on another 6, plus 2 minors plus 3 exotics: I won't be taking that many entries of course as 5 of the potential set-ups are well correlated USD pairs, but that still leaves me quite a few good options.

Yes, a break-out strategy to sit alongside trend-following would capture the earlier moves, but they just don't suit my trading personality - at the moment.

I am very fond of systems like Big Ben, thanks for remembering it - I well remember a 2-week period when I got 8 out of 10. Then of course I lost the next 12...... So it goes. But I am sure the basis of Big Ben could be revived when I have the chance.
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Old Feb 12, 2015, 3:41pm   #15
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2. vertical sequence on chart must read, from high to low – 50EMA, 100EMA and finally 200EMA

I notice a small error here - price does not have to be above the 50 or 100EMAs.
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Old Feb 23, 2015, 11:06am   #16
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tomorton started this thread Trend-following in tricky market conditions -

Have to report I have only taken 4 trades so far this month - 2 winners, 2 losers, none still open, slightly neg outcome to date. But absence of trend-following entry signals right now in forex, while the EUR/Greece crisis still overhangs the markets is not necessarily a bad thing. For illustration, most of the pairs marked out as strongest-trending up or down by my system delivered counter-trend performances last week, so finding some way to enter them would have automatically been low probability trades.

The exception is the USD pairs which mostly continue to rise, perhaps as a safe haven against rising EUR surprise risk.
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