Options Swing Trades

This is a discussion on Options Swing Trades within the Swing & Position Trading forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by WklyOptions Hi, T2W members, FYI - took a weekly option trade on YHOO this afternoon on the ...

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Old Jun 25, 2014, 11:01pm   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WklyOptions View Post
Hi, T2W members,

FYI - took a weekly option trade on YHOO this afternoon on the basis of strong downside momentum across the Daily chart:

Sold to Open (-15) YHOO Jun4(27th) $34 Call

Bought to Open (+15) YHOO Jun4(27th) $35 Call

@ Net Credit (+$0.34) per spread.

Risk = (-$66) per spread x 15 = (-$990)

Credit rec'd = (+$34) per spread x 15 = (+$510)

Max Ret on Mrgn = (+51.5%) in 5 trading days.

Please note - although most weekly options trades are meant to be "hands off" - if YHOO reverses back up quickly in the next 1-2 trading days, there will be enough time yet that I may adjust this spread.

Ok, hands off for now...deep breaths....let go!

WklyOptions
Hello, T2W members,

This YHOO trade was exited today. I had put this trade's post by mistake under the Options Swing Trades thread. It should be under the Weekly Options Trades post instead.

Well, here is the outcome:

Bought to Close (+1x) Jun4(27th) YHOO $34 Call

Sold to Close (-1x) Jun4(27th) YHOO $35 Call

@ Net Debit (-$0.04) per spread x 15 lots.

Final trade result:

Net Credit (+$0.30) x 15 lots = (+$450)

Initial Max Risk (-$0.66) per spread

Net Return on Margin (+45.5%) in 5 calendar days & good for (+$450).

Very enjoyable quick return on margin! Was able to exploit strong bearish trend and momentum bias off the Hourly and Daily charts!

Time to put on the next one...

Thx!

WklyOptions
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Old Jul 16, 2014, 11:56pm   #10
Joined Apr 2014
Weekly Binary Option trade

WklyOptions started this thread Hi, T2W members,

This is a NADEX based binary option trade I took early this week on the GBPJPY pair.

Although it is a binary option trade, the expiry is an end-of-week expiry, so I still "filed" it as part of "Options Swing Trades" for now.

In the future, my short-term binary options trading < 1 day expiry will be put in a new sub-thread called "Intraday Binary Options Trading".

Here is this week's trade on the GBPJPY (see attached chart 1):

1. Weekly GBPJPY trend & momentum was bullish. Had a down close on the weekly chart going into the wknd.
2. The T1 = Weekly Chart. T3 = H4 chart.

Note = b/c the currency volatility on a weekly duration is far greater than an intraday expiry duration, the MACD criteria for a bullish T1 based off the FREE eBook "Tracking Big Money Trends" is different. But that is less important.

3. Waited for pullback on the H4 which occurred going into the wknd.
4. Then waited for H4 price action and Bullish Entry trigger - hit at $173.581.

I used the NADEX binary option wkly expiry on GBPJPY (see attached chart 2):

5. Bought to Open (GBP/JPY > $173.75) @ $44.25 per lot.
6. Risk = (-$44.25). Total risk this trade = (-$2212.50). Fees excluded.
7. Max Profit = (+$55.75).
8. Break-even Target 1 = at 85% of Initial Risk (or Target 1 = $81.86).
9. Target 2 = held to expiry = Trailing Stop-Loss at $44.50.

Trade mgmt = GBPJPY hit resistance & trading range.

10. Exited 28-lot at $81.86. Credit received = (+$2292.08). Break-even locked.
11. Remaining open = 22-lot.

Will exit 22-lot if binary option price drops < $44.50 (valued at $979.00).

Still a little over 1+ day left to expiry. Time to wait and see how it finishes...

Regards,

WklyOptions
Attached Thumbnails
gbpjpy-t1-wkly-t3-h4-bto-call.png   gbpjpy-t1-wkly-t3-h4-bto-call-173.75-expiry-3pm-est-07.18.2014.png  
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Old Jul 17, 2014, 6:50pm   #11
Joined Apr 2014
WklyOptions started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by WklyOptions View Post
Hi, T2W members,

This is a NADEX based binary option trade I took early this week on the GBPJPY pair.

...
5. Bought to Open (GBP/JPY > $173.75) @ $44.25 per lot.
6. Risk = (-$44.25). Total risk this trade = (-$2212.50). Fees excluded.
7. Max Profit = (+$55.75).
8. Break-even Target 1 = at 85% of Initial Risk (or Target 1 = $81.86).
9. Target 2 = held to expiry = Trailing Stop-Loss at $44.50.

Trade mgmt = GBPJPY hit resistance & trading range.

10. Exited 28-lot at $81.86. Credit received = (+$2292.08). Break-even locked.
11. Remaining open = 22-lot.

Will exit 22-lot if binary option price drops < $44.50 (valued at $979.00).
...
Hi, T2W traders,

This GBP/JPY trade was exited this morning at 07.17.2014 - 0453am EST when GBP/JPY was $174.039.

The Nadex GBP/JPY (>$173.75) call binary option hit $44.50. The remaining 22-lot position was exited automatically.

Net result:

1. Opening trade = 50-lot BTO GBP/JPY (>$173.75) @ $44.25 = (-$2212.50).
2. Breakeven Target & Trailing Stop-Loss trade = 28-lot exited @ $77.75 (+$2177.00)
a. Nadex GBP/JPY (Weekly Expiry > $173.75) Call Option - Break Even Trailing Stop-Loss exited (see chart 1)
b. GBP/JPY corresponding charts - Break Even Trailing Stop exited 28-Lot (see chart 2)
3. Final Initial Stop-Loss trade = 22-lot exited @ $44.50 (+$979.00)
a. Nadex GBP/JPY (Weekly Expiry > $173.75) Calls - Final 22-Lot exited $44.50
b. GBP/JPY charts - Final 22-Lot exited.

Net result = (+$943.50) = (+42.6%) {Nadex fees excluded}

Regards,

WklyOptions
Attached Thumbnails
gbpjpy-1-min-chart-nadex-stop-loss-hit-07.15.2014-1041am-est-77.75-28-lot-exited.png   gbpjpy-h1-m1-charts-break-even-trailing-stop-loss-hit-07.15.2014-1041am-est-exited-2.png   gbpjpy-nadex-1-hr-call-173.75-expiry-3pm-est-07.18.2014-stop-loss-44.50-hit.png  

gbpjpy-t1-wkly-t3-h4-nadex-stop-loss-hit-0453am-est.png  
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Old Jul 17, 2014, 6:56pm   #12
Joined Apr 2014
WklyOptions started this thread Hi T2W traders,

Debriefing on GBP/JPY Nadex Weekly Expiry (>$173.75) Binary Call Trade = (+42.6%) = Trade exited early as Break Even Trailing Stop & Final Target Trailing Stop points were hit early.

Lessons Learned:

1. Entry area = Pullback trading setup. Lack of follow-thru of bullish momentum.
2. With ALL BINARY trading (if > 5 mins expiry) - it is critical to establish Trailing Stop-Loss exit points for both Break Even Target & Final Target points.
3. Nadex binary options easier to exit BEFORE expiry - unlike non-Nadex binaries.

Regards,

WklyOptions
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Old Jul 18, 2014, 3:07pm   #13
Joined Apr 2014
WklyOptions started this thread Hi, T2W traders,

New bearish trade using Nadex Put Binary.

1. AUDJPY - Daily & H4 trend & momentum = bearish.
2. M15 chart shows bearish divergence between Price vs MACD.

Entry Setup (chart 1 attached):

3. Look at M15 chart.
4. Entry @ 0900am EST on 07/18/2014.

Nadex Put Binary (chart 2 attached):

5. Using the AUDJPY < $95.00 Put Binary Option.
6. Expiry selected = Daily expiry @ 1500pm EST.
7. BTO 30-Lot @ ($67.50)

Reward/Risk:

8. Max Risk Loss = (-$975.00)
9. Max Profit = (+$2025.00)

Exit Criteria:

10. Reassess @ 1300pm EST, 07/18/2014.
11. 85% Max Profit = ($15.00) = (+$52.50) per Put Binary Option
12. Look to STC 19-Lot @ ($15.00).
13. Then look to trail remaining open 11-Lot @ ($67.00).

Will let trade unfold now...

Please feel free to ask your questions/chart observations or options questions.

Regards,

WklyOptions
Attached Thumbnails
audjpy-t1-daily-t4-h1-bearish-divergence-entry-0900am-est-07.18.2014-entry-price-.png   audjpy-nadex-daily-3pm-expiry-less-than-95.00-0900am-est-07.18.2014-bto-30-lot-67.5.png  
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Old Jul 21, 2014, 9:27am   #14
Joined Apr 2014
WklyOptions started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by WklyOptions View Post
Hi, T2W traders,

New bearish trade using Nadex Put Binary.

1. AUDJPY - Daily & H4 trend & momentum = bearish.
2. M15 chart shows bearish divergence between Price vs MACD.

Entry Setup (chart 1 attached):

3. Look at M15 chart.
4. Entry @ 0900am EST on 07/18/2014.

Nadex Put Binary (chart 2 attached):

5. Using the AUDJPY < $95.00 Put Binary Option.
6. Expiry selected = Daily expiry @ 1500pm EST.
7. BTO 30-Lot @ ($67.50)

Reward/Risk:

8. Max Risk Loss = (-$975.00)
9. Max Profit = (+$2025.00)

Exit Criteria:

10. Reassess @ 1300pm EST, 07/18/2014.
11. 85% Max Profit = ($15.00) = (+$52.50) per Put Binary Option
12. Look to STC 19-Lot @ ($15.00).
13. Then look to trail remaining open 11-Lot @ ($67.00).

Will let trade unfold now...

Please feel free to ask your questions/chart observations or options questions.

Regards,

WklyOptions
Hi, T2W traders,

Well, this Nadex Binary trade turned out unsuccessfully - the option expired out of the money for a loss of (-$975) excluding Nadex fees.

There was no bearish momentum follow-thru going into the last few hrs of the trading week.

Fortunately the previous Nadex win with the GBPJPY trade covered approximately this trade's loss.

Lesson Learned:

1. Be very cautious trading Nadex binaries going into Fri expiry - especially after 1pm EST. Liquidity AND volatility (necessary for Nadex-type binary options) really dried up in the last 3 hrs before the end-of-week expiry.
2. Better to enter earlier in the week - and then look to exit earlier than expiry.

Well, time to go to the next Nadex binary setup...

Thank you.

WklyOptions
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Old Jul 21, 2014, 9:44am   #15
Joined Apr 2014
WklyOptions started this thread T2W traders,

New bearish trade on EURJPY T1=Daily, T2=H4. Bearish entry on Nadex (3pm EST Expiry, 7/21/14) $137 strike price. Will post charts and details soon. Just a bit busy with a couple of M15 and M30 binary trades right now (not pull-back trades but instead momentum breakout trades).

Rec'd (+$45.50) per contract.

Will look to exit when 80% of Max Credit rec'd is achieved. Or look to exit at a loss if at (-1R). 80% Max Credit = exit if can buy back options at ($10.00).

1. Protect Stop-Loss exit = Buy to Close if contract price > ($80.50).
2. Target Profit exit = Buy to Close if contract price < ($10.00).

If require adjustment earlier - will post it asap.

Thank you.

WklyOptions
Attached Thumbnails
eurjpy-t1-daily-t2-h4-bearish-nadex-137-strike-expiry-3pm-est-07.21.2014-credit-.png   nadex-matrix-03.41am-est-07.21.2014-eurjpy-strike-137-bearish-credit-received-45.50.png  
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Old Jul 21, 2014, 10:22am   #16
Joined Apr 2014
WklyOptions started this thread T2W members,

I forgot - but wanted to emphasize here - that on average, I allocate my bets to be able to attack a specific entry setup with at least 2-3 "bets" accordingly.

Especially when dealing with US and European binary option types - since these products are all-or-none products at expiry, it is important to have sufficient bankroll and # of bets per setup.

Unless one is effectively trading a longer-term swing campaign lasting several wks or months, it is difficult to hedge or apply "repair hedging" techniques.

Hence - again the need to carefully allocate out the risk capital to at least 2-3 potential entries per trading setup/criteria.

I have also found the forex volatility - and the strike price intervals of the US binary options on the Nadex - to be much different than the CBOE wkly or monthly options. So it is still a learning/fitting process for my setups vs volatility vs correct time frame to select out for the T1 time frame.

The European binary options are easier to trade/manage per setup because there is no need to evaluate strike price levels and strike price interval size vs volatility. I trade European binary options for intraday binary trades < 2 hrs in trade duration. Longer than 2 hrs - I tend to use the Nadex binary options.

Well, more to follow-up later.

Regards,

WklyOptions
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