Swing Trading U.S. Stocks

This is a discussion on Swing Trading U.S. Stocks within the Swing & Position Trading forums, part of the Methods category; Attached is a weekly chart of BIIB which pretty much speaks for itself. However, I'll offer a few comments as ...

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Old Dec 18, 2005, 8:20pm   #9
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Will History Repeat Itself?

timsk started this thread Attached is a weekly chart of BIIB which pretty much speaks for itself. However, I'll offer a few comments as to why it's caught my attention. The stock was last flirting with the $46 level in Feb '04, resulting in the large bull candle on very heavy volume. The daily chart reveals that the bulk of the move occured when the price gaped up to $51 - which then provided support a month or so later. Volume on the days preceding the gap up was weak and now, in December '05, it's even weaker - relatively. With Christmas upon us, it might be that the stock extends its horizontal work and, in so doing, builds up a head of steam for something spectacular in the new year.

On the other hand . . . a period of consolidation could well see another test of support at $42. Should this fail, the bulls could be shaken out of their positions and be accompanied by a frenzy of short selling which then results in the price plummeting right back down to the bottom of the range indicated by the lower green line at $34. Oooo, isn't it exciting? Place your bets now please ladies and gentlemen!

Happy Chrimbo to you all,
Tim.
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Old Jan 15, 2006, 2:59pm   #10
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Cup 'n' Handle

timsk started this thread ISIL
A breakout of resistance at $27.00 on strong volume would induce Jo Public to pile in which could, in turn, result in a test of long term resistance at the decade number - $30.00. The strong bull candle on good volume kicked of the year well for ISIL but, there was no follow through last week, in spite of the increased volume. This could be some profit taking from the bulls that got in early on during the last week of October through to November. However, this doesn't seem very likely, as anyone who wanted to do this would surely have done so during the pull back to $24.00 during the first two weeks of December? Equally unlikely - to my way of thinking - is that the relatively poor performance last week is a result of fresh short selling. The doji on the third week of December indicates that the bulls are prepared to support the price around the $24.00 mark and, additionally, the low(ish) volume that accompanied the doji suggest that there is little selling pressure. One possible explanation could be that there are institutional buyers who want to accumulate more shares and don't want to allow a significant price advance until they've got their fill. If this is the case, then a strong price advance on the breakout of $27.00 becomes highly probable. Has anyone got any other explanations and or interpretations of the price action?
Tim.
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Old Jan 23, 2006, 12:00am   #11
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I don't know who you trade with Tim but if you use CFDs or Spreadbets with CMC or IG you can have guaranteed stops for 'sleeping at night' purposes. They cost a little extra but if you're trading off weekly data you'll hardly notice it.
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Old Jan 24, 2006, 9:49pm   #12
 
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amgn might be worth a pop now people? Looks like some decent support. What do you think?

Millsy
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Old Jan 25, 2006, 1:08am   #13
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Originally Posted by millsy500
amgn might be worth a pop now people? Looks like some decent support. What do you think?
Millsy
Hi Millsy,
AMGN is certainly interesting this week by virtue of the fact that the volume after just two days almost matches that of the whole of last week. The range of the candle is similarly impressive. If this continues, the volume bar could become huge, indicating a lot of activity. Has the price found support at the $73.50 mark and will the week end in a doji or even a higher price with a tantalisingly long spike? Well, clearly buyers are supporting price and to good effect, it would appear. But, as we all know, appearances can be deceptive! So, my thoughts are that price action is bullish in the short term at least, but I would want to wait to see if this results in a more sustained upward move for a swing trade. Presumably, the chart has already presented a reversal set-up off support for some traders who have jumped in early. The higher green line represents possible resistance at $78.00.
Tim.
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Old Jan 25, 2006, 6:01pm   #14
 
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Hi Tim

Thanks for the explaination. My thinking was to hold on a wee bit and wait for a decent reversal signal as it has been in a down trend for a while. completely missed the volume tho! Getting there slowly!

Millsy
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Old Mar 27, 2006, 4:04pm   #15
 
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Hi, I swing trade US stocks (mainly Nasdaq). I use Elder's triple screen method & it pretty much works for me. I try not to pay too much attention to the news as it only makes me second guess and therefore doubt my trading system, however, i don't ignore it either. By this I mean that if there's news that's likely to have a dramatically negative impact on the market, I will tighten my stops.

With regard to gapping, it's a risk that can be reasonably managed by avoiding stocks with a history of scary gaps and erratic moves. In the unfortunate event of having a stock gap against me, my strategy is to limit the damage by trading it back by allowing a breathing space and simply tightening the stop as it pulls back towards my break even.

I look forward to discussing swing trading of US stocks.

Saul
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Old Oct 30, 2006, 5:44am   #16
 
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Hi folks,

I'm interested in swing trading as well -- trading the minor trends and break-outs. I'm fairly new to this game, hence I tend to stick to the basics. Trends, resistance / support, and volume are the key things I look for in charts. I trade US-based stocks exclusively, for the time being.

Attached are a couple of charts I'd consider interesting.
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