Swing and Position Trading

This is a discussion on Swing and Position Trading within the Swing & Position Trading forums, part of the Methods category; After several months not even logging in here, I am looking for the correct thread to post (and ask questions) ...

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Old Dec 17, 2004, 8:18am   #46
 
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After several months not even logging in here, I am looking for the correct thread to post (and ask questions) about Timing cube ( www.timingcube.com for anybody to check)
It seems that this is a very easy means of taking the emotion out of when to trade swings on indices.
Not only that but by using CFDs to gear the investing, I should be able to select the maximum likely loss of invested capital for anything other than a complete disaster.
So what I need is:
Is this the right thread?
Or should I start a special thread - and where on the BB?
Cheers and looking forward to your ideas.
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Old Dec 17, 2004, 9:48am   #47
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Hi David. There is a 'commercial trading systems' forum, but given the specific nature of the product here would seem as good. (The mods may well move it for you anyway).

With a service that "detects major trend changes in the broad market and issues simple, definitive Buy and Sell signals, on average three to five times per year" it may be a little of the 'passive' side for the more active traders on these boards, but it'll be interesting to see if anyone uses/has used them.

Why do you ask? What have you heard about them other than their website?
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Old Dec 17, 2004, 10:06am   #48
 
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Tony,
Thanks for your quick reply. I was impressed with the methodology which they explain in some detail.
They quote various limits as to when and why they change tack and the overall performance is excellent, particularly when geared up.
For example the maximum downside witnessed to date has been 9%. If I choose to accept a loss of approaching 30% as my maximum, then I can gear up using CFDs on the selected index by a factor of 3+.
CFDs on indexes seem to run at an initial margin of 7.5% which is 13.3x geared.
If you understand all this it means I can trade comfortably with only 25% of my capital committed.
Now the downside. Looking at their recent performance, they, like all derivative traders have fallen foul of the recent choppy markets. On the other hand they gained 30+% over the previous period and that geared up by 3x is over 100% in under a year.
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Old Dec 17, 2004, 10:31am   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aspex
For example the maximum downside witnessed to date has been 9%.
9% of what? Entire trading capital?


Quote:
Originally Posted by aspex
If I choose to accept a loss of approaching 30% as my maximum,
30%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'd be getting a little nervous after my 3rd successive losing trade.... Do you get to tailor your risk to any level you choose? If not...you're really in their hands and the lap of the gods. If you can, then it might be an option for those that don't want to actively trade and/or do their own research.


Quote:
Originally Posted by aspex
Now the downside. Looking at their recent performance, they, like all derivative traders have fallen foul of the recent choppy markets. On the other hand they gained 30+% over the previous period
Did they state how much they lost in the 'recent choppy markets'?
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Old Dec 17, 2004, 7:37pm   #50
 
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It may seem rash but my trading capital is only 8% of funds invested.
So a -30% is under 3% of total invested capital.
So I am happy with those figures.
Puts it all in context, I hope.
You have complete control - it's your money and they provide only the reasoning for action.
Hence I may sell out at -5% rather than -9%
The important feature is the emotion is taken out of the sell/buy/go to cash options.
A simple summary of actual trading is at :
http://www.timingcube.com/results/#cumulative
Obviously the "within period" movements are more than -2.67% for the choppy period and may have initiated a sell at the -5% level.

Last edited by aspex; Dec 17, 2004 at 8:34pm. Reason: adding further information
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Old May 17, 2005, 12:49am   #51
 
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Old Jun 10, 2005, 3:43pm   #52
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New swinger

Hello all (& techst@ - good thread )

I'm relatively new to spread betting and TA, but I'm getting there slowly.

Anyway - I'd be interested to hear other people's opinions about this situation. I've entered a short on EMG.L (at 1385) yesterday (9th June) , and until today was expecting EMG's price to bounce down off the resistance level at 1400, which has been tested several times.

Unfortunately today it opened above the 1400 mark (although it may form into a star).
But will the 1400 level now become support ?

The chart I use is EMG 8 June - (second chart just current position).

Have a look at my charts and feel free to pass some comments, - I need the help!

Rex79
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Old Jun 10, 2005, 7:35pm   #53
 
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rex

emg is in my stable. From a slightly different perspective I've been waiting for a long entry since it went into uptrend (for me) when it rose above the last swing high, but no opportunity and now it's stalled against the second last swing high which may offer some resistance - all depicted on the first chart.

1400 is clearly an important level. After a couple of months giving support late in 03 and then resistance for a similar period almost a year later it then broke back through and spent a long time bouncing back and forth (the yellow range on second chart) and it's now got back into it without much trouble after the trip south.

Where to now? Your guess is as good as mine. It may retrace a bit from here (that minor swing high resistance) which would be good for your short and maybe give me a long entry to consider. Or it may bounce around again within the + and - 1400 range as it did before. Or it may keep steaming north. The range limits are key "watch it" points I think.

Not sure if all that's a help or a hindrance

good trading

jon
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Old Jun 11, 2005, 5:32am   #54
 
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EMG is heavily dependent upon the success (or otherwise) of its AHL fund..
Most hedge funds had a really bad time in Jan >April.
EMG has risen on the back of a 6% rise in the last month on AHL (3.48% last week)
The question is whether this is to continue.
Current price is $23.80 - the low in Jan and April was $22.41 after a high of well over $24 in Feb 2004.
A significant chunk of income will only accrue once the fund reaches $24.35 again though they continue to rip management fees out of the fund.
The last SP high was in April '04 just over 2 months after the AHL high , although it did have a minor resurgence to $24.13 in early March '04
Make of that what you will.
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Old Jun 11, 2005, 2:49pm   #55
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Thanks Aspex, and barjon,

I think I've entered into this one a bit early, I'll have to just sit this out !

Aspex - I knew nothing about EMG's dependancy on the ASL fund, I'm working purely from charts with no background knowledge of the company (I have a lack of time) - admittedly I'd be in a better position if I could do some background digging.

Thanks for your responses.
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Old Jun 14, 2005, 5:40pm   #56
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down

Afternoon All,

I'm hoping this is another one that's heading down I think there's going to be a worthy retracement after what appears to me to be a triple top.

Once again - I'll have to see.

I still fancy EMG to drop back - but have today realised that my short bet expired today 14 rather than next month - ****! (tried to use mobile phone to place bet, pressed wrong button- fool!).

once again - all comments appreciated.
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Old Jun 14, 2005, 6:14pm   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex79
Afternoon All,

I'm hoping this is another one that's heading down I think there's going to be a worthy retracement after what appears to me to be a triple top.

Once again - I'll have to see.

I still fancy EMG to drop back - but have today realised that my short bet expired today 14 rather than next month - ****! (tried to use mobile phone to place bet, pressed wrong button- fool!).

once again - all comments appreciated.
haha trading mistake can easily be made, i have made many of those, the most stupid one caused prudential being suspended from trading for a few minutes as i mistakenly took the entire order book out on the bid side and the LSE monitor team rang our compliance to find out what went wrong. sorry, its nothing to do with this thread, but just find rex79 calling himself a fool quite funny as it is exactly what i called myself at the time.

Interesting thread though i will follow this thread.

Last edited by khi; Jun 14, 2005 at 6:47pm.
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Old Jun 14, 2005, 8:46pm   #58
 
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Rex79,
Why not try CFDs - they don't expire?
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Old Jun 15, 2005, 8:09am   #59
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[Cheers Aspex, Khi,

I may well look at CFD's in the longer term, but at the moment I'm still fairly new to TA and trading, so I'll practise my principles with very small spread bets.

Do you know of any good sources of information for CFD's ??

Cheers Rex
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Old Jun 15, 2005, 9:42am   #60
 
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Try www.cfds.com for general information
and www.minicfds.com which is part of finspreads and offer a cheap entry over five weeks , i believe.
The only disadvantage of CFDs is the possible CGT liability (but only if you live in the UK, sorry about that!)
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