APPLE - the next NOKIA?

What's the feeling on the new Apple phone? Will it be a winner? Or will it turn out to be a misguided foray into already competitive market? Will this hype drive APPLE to a new high (100+) and if so will it be a buy, or short of the year?

Personally leaning towards a short if it breaks 100+...

all comments welcomed!

I'll leave the stock call to your best judgement, but my strong feeling on the fundamental side is that your second hypothesis is correct: ie a misguided foray into a competitive market. It has none of simplicity of the ipod, is too big for most people to consider as a mobile phone, and there are already a number of phones that have similar MP3 type functionality. A few mac addicts might go for it, but I reckon it'll bomb.

I believe it will be the must have gadget for 2007. Analysts though are saying that it is perfectly priced at present.

Listen to Steve Jobs presentation at the MacWorld presentation and here's the news. Boy the stock was on fire last night!

http://www.apple.com/iphone/


http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-from-macworld-2007-steve-jobs-keynote/

Apple Computer (AAPL):
92.13 +6.65 In the worst kept secret in tech land, today Apple announced the highly-anticipated iPhone at the annual Macworld Expo conference in San Francisco. Speculation over what had become almost a phantom product had reached a fevered pitch heading into the week-long Consumer Electronics show. Expectations were running high given Apple's historical record of bringing truly innovative, intuitive, and market-changing products to life. Apple was up to the challenge once again, as the tech giant released the iPhone, which functions as an iPod, a phone, and an Internet mobile communicator.
While Bill Gates may have been the keynote speaker at the CES show in Vegas, Steve Jobs stole the spotlight from a hundred miles away. The new device has a black 3.5" screen with 160ppi resolution that operates without any buttons or stylus through a proprietary touch-screen technology called "multi-tuch". The device is bigger than the iPod, but thinner than its competitors, like Motorola's (MOT) "Q," at 11.6 mm, offering 8 GB of storage and a 2 megapixel camera. There is only one button on the face of the device called "home," with the rest controlled by finger-touch. The device, which works horizontally and vertically, will be offered by Cingular.
Consumers can not only watch movies and TV shows and listen to music on the iPhone, but they can also utilize the phone functionality in a much more effective way (with email, conference calls, etc). The icon-functional device also supports so-called push email from Yahoo! (YHOO), similar to RIM's (RIMM) Blackberry. The "phone" runs on OS X, enabling multitasking, networking, power management, graphics, security, video, graphics, and audio core animation.
Jobs also decried slowing iTunes sales rumors, stating the content conduit has been selling over 5 million songs per day - that's one every 58 seconds. iTunes has now surpassed Amazon (AMZN), ranking #4 in music sales. Its movie venture with Disney (DIS), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, has yielded superior results, selling 1.3 mln movies on iTunes since its launch. It has also added Paramount as a new partner.
The overwhelming response to the converged product was unanimous. Apple's shares skyrocketed, up more than 6%, on expectations that the iPhone could increase sales by more than a billion dollars. Total sales for the fiscal year ended in September were $19.3 bln. The iPhone will compete directly with Motorola and Nokia (NOK) for share of the $127 bln cellphone market. The iPhone gives Apple a greater market opportunity as part of its integrated product model that includes iTunes, Mac, iTV and now the iPhone.
Bank of America and UBS estimate Apple could reach nearly 5 mln units this year. The 4-GB version will sell for $499 with an 8 gigabyte device for $599. Expectations are already running high for the device given the fact that since its release, the iPod has garnered nearly 80% of the global MP3 market. According to Telephia Inc, almost 20% of all new phones sold to US consumers in the third quarter were able to play music.
Jobs also confirmed Apple TV (codename iTV) - a digital set-top box of sorts providing consumers with a central hub for their digital content and playback - a critical product in its own right for Apple as part of the digital home. While retaining our long-term bullish view on the stock, we would be hesitant in adding to positions given the fact that shares appear priced to perfection at this point.

You gotta hand it to Mr Jobs stock options and all........haha

Hopefully the stock will "surge" to $100 or more so we give Apple inc a good slapping!
Might even buy an iphone with some of the proceeds.

Jack o'Clubs said:

It has none of simplicity of the ipod, is too big for most people to consider as a mobile phone, and there are already a number of phones that have similar MP3 type functionality. A few mac addicts might go for it, but I reckon it'll bomb.

Click to expand...

Simplicity its not simplicity that makes money its "cool" factor, the ipod was "cool" everyone wanted one.The "iphone" will have a cool factor too, and guess what everyone (well not quite everyone but many millions) will want one ..

dont forget iTV might fare better than iPhone perhaps...

Looks like the 100+ short opportunity not likely (at least for a while!)

Apple's stock has been through some turbulent times over the past 12 months. Apple shares have been likened to a junk bond the way they are trading. There is some investor anxiety over the firm's long-term hardware strategy.
Management's revenue guidance implies that iPhone unit sales will drop 10-15% and iPad sales will also decline an additional 15-20%.
On the upside, the brand enjoys a lot of loyalty with 650 million users that the company can count on as frequent consumers. This user base comes in handy for services like iTunes, the App Store, Apple Music and Apple Pay.
An interesting fact is that over a billion devices have interacted in some way with Apple's service over the past 90 days.