S&P - Next 2 Years

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Old Jan 10, 2018, 2:26pm   #1
 
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S&P - Next 2 Years

Greetings all,

Been awhile since I checked in. Some friends and I had a lively discussion about the future of US stocks over the next 2 years, with the S&P being the gauge. I would like to get a more "world view" from traders here.

So, what is your prediction for the S&P over the next couple years? Do you base your opinion on TA, FA or both?

I'll start by saying that the current bull cycle has become almost parabolic and over-stretched (technically). Clearly, a correction is due but the market has lacked a strong enough fundamental catalyst to sustain any depth. Still, the further it pushes upward, the weaker the catalyst can be to cause a frenzy of profit taking and then a fear based sell-off. I think we could see a mild correction mid summer, 2018, which would mark the first "lower low" with a recovery not to exceed the current average. Then a real correction to 50% of the almost parabolic rise from 2000, to around 2300 or as far as returning to the previous 2000 area, which held steady for approximately 18 months from late 2014 through mid 2016.
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Old Jan 10, 2018, 3:18pm   #2
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All I'd like to predict is that I'm going to follow the S&P, especially when the Nasdaq is in technical agreement. I'm still long the S&P index even though its clearly over-stretched. But I thought it was over-stretched in 2003.........

More seriously, I am TA only when it comes to indices: the professionals do FA much better than I could and then I follow their money. When the major stock indices are all looking really strong I'll also take some of the member stocks in indices I can't trade directly, like the FTSE AIM100 and FTSE250.
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Old Jan 10, 2018, 3:18pm   #3
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Old Jan 10, 2018, 8:25pm   #4
 
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TA is not much cop with out FA agree 100%.

Where or why would a 50% correction come about I have no idea?

Billions and trillions of money floating around where you gonna stash all that lolly away.

One example, if you take it out of stock market and stick it into tangibles it still going to raise earnings for companies producing the stuff.

There is no correction to make. Global economies pumped up with cash and that cash needs to move around and move around it will.

What with the dollar losing value too will lead to more purchases of US goods.


One way ticket. Forget guessing the correction and just carry on as you were
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Old Jan 11, 2018, 10:50am   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atilla View Post
TA is not much cop with out FA agree 100%.

Where or why would a 50% correction come about I have no idea?

Billions and trillions of money floating around where you gonna stash all that lolly away.

One example, if you take it out of stock market and stick it into tangibles it still going to raise earnings for companies producing the stuff.

There is no correction to make. Global economies pumped up with cash and that cash needs to move around and move around it will.

What with the dollar losing value too will lead to more purchases of US goods.


One way ticket. Forget guessing the correction and just carry on as you were
Agreed 100%. But then that presents me with a problem.

How can you be so wrong about Brexit !
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Old Jan 11, 2018, 3:26pm   #6
 
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Inflation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atilla View Post
TA is not much cop with out FA agree 100%.

Where or why would a 50% correction come about I have no idea?

Billions and trillions of money floating around where you gonna stash all that lolly away.

One example, if you take it out of stock market and stick it into tangibles it still going to raise earnings for companies producing the stuff.

There is no correction to make. Global economies pumped up with cash and that cash needs to move around and move around it will.

What with the dollar losing value too will lead to more purchases of US goods.


One way ticket. Forget guessing the correction and just carry on as you were
The problem with your theory is that a large proportion of the "US" goods are manufactured in China.

Interest rates are starting to rise...global inflation is on the rise...

Things are going to start getting real ugly...but this inflation "party" and the false prosperity it brings will be celebrated in the mainstream media for a while yet...but another crisis in on the horizon, just like the last one nobody could have seen coming...or the one before that...or the one before that...etc
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Old Jan 11, 2018, 3:50pm   #7
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I think the upside is limited from here

i know "they" (what ever it takes guys) will probably not let it chrash but needs to cool off this parabolic move

so for 2018 sideways, more volatility perfect for swing trading, and the year will end probably +-0

2019? maybe same as 2018 but even more volatility?

Last edited by kalott; Jan 11, 2018 at 4:19pm.
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Old Jan 11, 2018, 6:40pm   #8
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only 7 "buy the dip" 2017

maybe this year gives more opportunities
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