S&P - Next 2 Years

This is a discussion on S&P - Next 2 Years within the Stocks forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by kalott only 7 "buy the dip" 2017 maybe this year gives more opportunities Still a terrific year....

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Old Jan 11, 2018, 7:42pm   #9
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Originally Posted by kalott View Post
only 7 "buy the dip" 2017

maybe this year gives more opportunities

Still a terrific year.
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Old Jan 11, 2018, 9:38pm   #10
 
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The problem with your theory is that a large proportion of the "US" goods are manufactured in China.

Interest rates are starting to rise...global inflation is on the rise...

Things are going to start getting real ugly...but this inflation "party" and the false prosperity it brings will be celebrated in the mainstream media for a while yet...but another crisis in on the horizon, just like the last one nobody could have seen coming...or the one before that...or the one before that...etc
Well it's not so much as a theory as an important consideration.

If people sell up they're going to get cash out of stocks so what are they going to do with all that cash?

The mind boggles.

I thought we'd have inflation long time ago but still don't see it. The inflation we do see is self inflicted as a consequence of currency fluctuations. Look at Japan has been in deflationary state for decades. So wrt inflation the jury is out I'm not sure about it anymore.

US may have inflation as dollar depreciates but that's as above. I do think they will need to raise rates to attact buyers for their useless G debt. I see positive outcome for gold as dollar loses value and oil is rising at the moment not because it's scarce but simply because dollar is losing value and global growth is strong and continues to do well.

So coming back to the original bloggers TA analysis about a 50% correction I can only ponder how?

Oscar indicated the global economy is doing well because of Trump and Brexit and I almost fell off my chair laffing my head off. I dunno perhaps if Trump gets jettisonned and Brexit is over turned the global economy may crash 50% who knows? He could be right!
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Old Jan 12, 2018, 2:10pm   #11
 
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Gradually then suddenly

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Well it's not so much as a theory as an important consideration.

If people sell up they're going to get cash out of stocks so what are they going to do with all that cash?

The mind boggles.
You keep mentioning "all that cash" but you are ignoring all the associated debt. You are only considering one side of the balance sheet.

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I thought we'd have inflation long time ago but still don't see it. The inflation we do see is self inflicted as a consequence of currency fluctuations. Look at Japan has been in deflationary state for decades. So wrt inflation the jury is out I'm not sure about it anymore.
It seems as though our understanding of inflation is very different, in fact I know it is. The evidence of inflation is everywhere but I suppose you won't see it until it becomes extremely obvious.i.e. Until the Central Bankers tell you.

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So coming back to the original bloggers TA analysis about a 50% correction I can only ponder how?
TA is giving me amber warnings. A 50% or more correction within the next 2 years is not beyond the realms of possibility. This means the markets can still soar to new highs making the subsequent crash that much more spectacular.
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Old Jan 12, 2018, 3:26pm   #12
 
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Speak of the DEVIL

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Interest rates are starting to rise...global inflation is on the rise...
2-year Treasury yield tops 2% for the first time since 2008 as inflation rises
http://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/bonds...investors.html


Gradually, then suddenly
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Old Jan 12, 2018, 9:28pm   #13
 
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You keep mentioning "all that cash" but you are ignoring all the associated debt. You are only considering one side of the balance sheet.

Don't mean to upset but does G debt really matter that much?

Do you think it will ever be paid back?

Can it be paid back?

Should it be paid back?


It seems as though our understanding of inflation is very different, in fact I know it is. The evidence of inflation is everywhere but I suppose you won't see it until it becomes extremely obvious.i.e. Until the Central Bankers tell you.

I know what you mean here but I did acknowledge that inflation you are referring to a large % has been as a consequence of currency fluctuation.

I don't think we disagree on inflation but perhaps underlying cause is what we should be discussing. Is it a case of Excess Demand > Supply or simply currency fluctuation?


TA is giving me amber warnings. A 50% or more correction within the next 2 years is not beyond the realms of possibility. This means the markets can still soar to new highs making the subsequent crash that much more spectacular.
TA warning is just a statistic like in the last 80 years temperatures in Australia never went above 47C and thus based on TA temperatures should drop back down to some average variant. Well maybe and maybe not. If global warming the FA, continues why shouldn't temperatures reach 49C even?

If we get a 10 or 20% pull back even 30% be yeah ok so what, move on nothing to see here sort of thing.

Talk of 50% fall is really stretching the imagination. Reminds me of the 15% drop in housing which bounced back with early green shoots as early as 2009 when some people were getting upset on these threads about challenges to their 50% melt down in property prices. Now look where we are.


Look at fundamentals? Forget TA for signs. Candlesticks maybe for reading psychology of the market but on the whole TA is not much cop imo.
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Old Jan 12, 2018, 10:33pm   #14
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"A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc."

is this FA

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...pain-is-coming


where are we now?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/64/6e...d58ae72615.jpg
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Old Jan 12, 2018, 11:36pm   #15
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50% correction? Where's this come from?

Anyway, for all I know (care), 2018 could see a 50% correction. I will be in cash by then, hopefully short by then.

Be aware that 16 of the 20 worst single day falls in the Dow since 1900 came in downtrends, not suddenly out of the blue in a clear no-brainer bull market.
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Old Jan 13, 2018, 12:58am   #16
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kalott View Post
"A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc."

is this FA

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...pain-is-coming


where are we now?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/64/6e...d58ae72615.jpg


When has the market ever been below what it was in 1900?
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