0007
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Isn't there a reason why it's low-priced?
Yeah, for what I believe to be superficial reasons. The issue with the emissions fixing is industry wide and the media has picked up on VW.
I personally think it will recover again.
0007
Senior member
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That's an alternative view and you may well be right. I'd rather go for a company that has no baggage.
timsk
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Hi Cowlinn,
This is a highly speculative play. If you're right and VW's price recovers - then you'll clean up big time. The flip side of the argument is that if it is industry wide (no evidence to support that as yet), then the whole sector could tank. At best, this is a pure gamble, IMO. If you're going to do this with real money, I'd suggest using very small size and, if it comes off, you'll make some beer money and you can have the satisfaction of posting "I told you so" on here and 0007 and I will be the first to congratulate you. On the other hand, if it just goes from bad to worse (which is what I suspect will happen), you won't lose your shirt. Just my $0.02 worth!
Tim.
PS. Full disclosure - I own a Golf - so I'm expecting the worst!
NVP
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if I was part of corporate finance team the time now would be to drop everything else toxic into the equation that was tucked away (kitchen sink theory) ......this will be a terrible year for them now so get rid of all the dross in Balance sheet for the eventual climb back ........
long climb though..........the damage done to the VW brand reputation is catastrophic.........unbelievable decision by VW to do this ...........watch many many heads roll and quickly ...........
N
long climb though..........the damage done to the VW brand reputation is catastrophic.........unbelievable decision by VW to do this ...........watch many many heads roll and quickly ...........
N
scott_miller
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I think it's too early to jump in. Investigations should be completed both for VW and others in the industry. Then we can see where the bottom is and start picking.
trader-steve
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i enjoyed riding it down going short, made more than enough money on that.
Dont think im ready to go long just yet, might be worth a look once they have recalled all those cars next year.
Dont think im ready to go long just yet, might be worth a look once they have recalled all those cars next year.
CG - Stock Trader
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Anyone looking at shorting the common and going long the preferred?
Just entered one today, with a spread of €21.76 between the two (20% + difference)
Both common and preferred have the same economic rights, and traded practically at parity prior to this crisis.
I plan on getting out when the spread tightens to €15.00 and entering every time it passes over €20. Will rinse and repeat as long as the opportunity is there.
I'm using margin but the position is a small enough percentage of my capital so I'll be able to handle drastic swings between the two if they occur (such as the 2007 short squeeze scenario)
Just entered one today, with a spread of €21.76 between the two (20% + difference)
Both common and preferred have the same economic rights, and traded practically at parity prior to this crisis.
I plan on getting out when the spread tightens to €15.00 and entering every time it passes over €20. Will rinse and repeat as long as the opportunity is there.
I'm using margin but the position is a small enough percentage of my capital so I'll be able to handle drastic swings between the two if they occur (such as the 2007 short squeeze scenario)
CG - Stock Trader
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Have continued scaling into this today as the spread widens. Spread is currently €25 between the common and preferences.
eliteeservices
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If anyone was burned on the dip down, join the class action lawsuit https://steinmeyerlaw.com/volkswagen/ - doesn't matter what country you are from!
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CG - Stock Trader
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The arb I was trading tightened nicely, currently a 15% difference between the two classes vs as high as 25% less than two weeks ago.
I sold out slightly too soon as I wanted to book a quick profit, was caught off guard by the speed of the tightening. I'll be glad to get back in if it widens above 20% again.
I sold out slightly too soon as I wanted to book a quick profit, was caught off guard by the speed of the tightening. I'll be glad to get back in if it widens above 20% again.
Anyone see Panorama last night in the UK, wow, serious issues for VW! But you guys are right, they highlighted that Vauxhall/Opel also had a similar issue with the Zafira at 2 times over the legal limit.
It can't stop with just VW with analysts saying this is going to cost over $11bn in just putting the affected cars back to normal forgetting the court cases from disgruntled customers, shareholders and not forgetting other manufacturers.
It can't stop with just VW with analysts saying this is going to cost over $11bn in just putting the affected cars back to normal forgetting the court cases from disgruntled customers, shareholders and not forgetting other manufacturers.
fxstrategist
Established member
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volkswagen
Looks in trouble, but the company has history.
Looks in trouble, but the company has history.
