Day Trading & Forex Forum

bgold

Sugar gave back gains of pastr 2 weeks within 2 days. Quite disappointing and if it wasn't for that my broker cannot take GTC stops on Sugar (still don't understand why because all other softs it is not a problem), I would have been out at 601 (the low).

I am "puzzled", still convinced that sugar will stage a very significant rally. Various momentum indicators seem to point to bottoing out. Fe daily RSI is not (yet) confirming bottom, in fact, current price low has not RSI confirmation and did the previous.

So are we near bottom? More important what are the risks of keeping the position open?

Keen to hear your views?

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JonnyT

Hi Toad,

I considered shorting today but felt I had missed the boat a little. I still think the next move will be down.

JonnyT

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bgold

Targetting what level? Stop at??
Can you trade sugar on-line?

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oatman

I'm not sure about this but I think Sugar has a seasonal Buy around Feb time. Maybe your historics will shed some light. I originally heard of this at Man. I think you need a password to get in. Have a butchers at mandirect.co.uk

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Every market has a bottom, every bottom has a hole in it.

Andreas

My seasonal charts show the March sugar contract making a bottom end of September/ early October and then going up till about January after which it drops sharply.

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Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less traveled by, and that made all the difference.

oatman

Can you see a pattern over the years tho?
what I mean is, how often does it "work"?

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Every market has a bottom, every bottom has a hole in it.

Andreas

I had a look in my Seasonal Stratagems for the seasonal sugar trades. The data look at 15 years of historical data. The table is for 2002, but of course just as valid for 2003.

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Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less traveled by, and that made all the difference.

bgold

Am I correct when assuming that avge P&L is per contract. Therefore, say, a long in Oct made on avg 212/1120 pts (eg 20cts)?

While I am still looking for confirmation of a bottom, it appears that we are getting nearer. Yesterdays' southern doji and bullish engulfing on hourly chart are encouraging. So is possibly pos divergence on daily RSI.

Where are the support levels? yesterdays' low at 591? 581? 559? lower?

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