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DEC Cocoa
This is a discussion on DEC Cocoa within the Softs forums, part of the Commodities category; Cocoa is crashing down towards support at 1535-55, a rising window of 22/23 Sep. I have reasonable success (read luck) ...
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Oct 1, 2003, 1:07pm
| #1 |
| Veteran Member  Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: SW London Posts: 524
 | Cocoa
Cocoa is crashing down towards support at 1535-55, a rising window of 22/23 Sep. I have reasonable success (read luck) trading CC riding the slide down in May and particpating in August rally. Recently I found it very difficult. Most recent trades were an entry at 1505, stopped out at 1478 (-27pts), then I wavered when CC was building base and went long at 1580 on 23 Sep and took profits at 1618 after the Evening Star of 26 Sep. Open Interest is still going down! Todays' trading shows there is considerable chaos in the market. I haven't read any stories. 1. Anybody out there who can shed some light on either the charts and/or fundamentals? 2. Were can one find news on Cocoa and other softs (Coffee is once again rallying!) 3. Any suggestions for on-line commodity brokers with competitive commission structures AND good access? I am currently paying $30 for a return (quite hefty for smaller contracts) As always your replies are much appreciated. J
__________________ OM NAMAH SIVAYA! Last edited by bgold; Dec 1, 2003 at 3:50pm. |
 
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Oct 1, 2003, 1:24pm
| #2 |
| Legendary Member  Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,892
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There's a shortage of big players in cocoa now, so it's easy to manipulate. You can get very sharp moves without volume. If you want a broker, try Sucden, there rates were OK when I used them (negotiable). http://www.sucden.co.uk/Login.shtml You'll get some coffee,cocoa and sugar reports here as well. Additionally they are active in the softs. Good luck
__________________ Every market has a bottom, every bottom has a hole in it.  |
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Oct 1, 2003, 1:27pm
| #3 |
| Legendary Member  Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Notts Posts: 2,561
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I think it's saying stand aside young man and wait for a trend to develop. I would sell below 1420 and go long above 1720 or 1820 but this really is a volatile beast and is hard to tame! JonnyT
__________________ Trading Mentor |
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Oct 2, 2003, 10:01am
| #4 |
| Rookie  Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Cambs Posts: 19
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J, The weekly continuation chart shows a massive double top with the pattern low at 1700, giving a downside target of 1000. However, 1700 has already been penetrated upwards once, which weakens the pattern. 1400 is now THE key level. If this goes, then there is only the base support at 1200 to stop the double top target playing out. A break of 1400 will also break the three year up trend line - 'yours'. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range at 1700-ish and we're back in the bull trend, first target the old highs at 2400. Like wot JohnnyT says, it's wait and see time for now. (I don't trade this so I can quite safely theorise from the sidelines!) |
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Oct 2, 2003, 11:17am
| #5 |
| Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: SW London Posts: 524
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Ian, Johnny, Oatman,Thank you for analysis. I see your points of view. Will study charts tonight. thanks J
__________________ OM NAMAH SIVAYA! |
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Oct 2, 2003, 1:37pm
| #6 |
| Junior Member Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 30
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A useful site for commodities i use is www.ino.com the market reports are quite good. |
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Oct 8, 2003, 12:01pm
| #7 |
| Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: SW London Posts: 524
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Cocoa falling off THE cliff! Ianshep and JohnnyT, you were both spot on! Cocoa "en route" to south of 1420 or will support at 1467 hold? Certainly some of the momentum indicators as of yet show no signs of a reversal.
__________________ OM NAMAH SIVAYA! |
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Oct 8, 2003, 12:24pm
| #8 |
| Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: SW London Posts: 524
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Well, CC Z3 kindly gave quick guidance! We're down to 1460!
__________________ OM NAMAH SIVAYA! |
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