what are they up to? Do you care?

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

In a sort of follow on from Trendie's 'different or better' thread....

There are 2 types of retail trader imo, one who just wants a sure fire consistent income, and the other who wants just that, but is also driven by understanding and learning and really trying to get to the core of his market like Neo at the end of the matrix and truly 'understand'. See attached.

So why is this in the psychology, not general or first steps thread?

From Mr Stochastic to Wykoff and Ross hooks.... These are all 'ways of making money' from the markets, giving a higher % ROI with minimal W/L and high R:R but do they make you understand more? Not in my view...

So where are you in the poll?

______________________________

So this thread is for opinions when it comes to reading between the lines...

Big boys, Big money, smart money, strong hands... call them what you will... We all see a chart, see major S/R, hear the UK or US news, see triangles, pendants, channels, moving average crosses but who tries to look through the chart (per attachment)...

A certain member posts charts into the future and explains a lot of the action with strong hands sucking in weak hands, or, you will hear lots of talk about stop hunting...

Sounds plausible and this changes obviously to the market as there are different participants and its easier to manipulate a stock but are there a group out there in each market moving it around and doing what they want per the above, or is everyone, from CB's to hedge funds and the herd, just trying to buy low and sell high.... Do you consider it?... Does this come into your thoughts when you see S/R 'holding' only for a spike to appear... Was that stop hunting? Was that an IB filling a better price for a client....? Is everyone on the NYSE floor after a good fill or better price or trying to screw each other over....

So for the benefit of all, those of you who try to look behind the candles, what are your thoughts?

Despite good earnings, did stock A rise because the last quarter reports were good or because the 'smart hands' took it below S/R to suck in shorts?

Did cable tank because of poor retail sales or because the BoE had something else going on at the same time?

how much of the market behaviour is manipulation of stops and orders and screwing the herd and the 'weak hands' or is everyone as ignorant and your stop was taken out because a client at a hedge fund wanted price up higher for his short position....

Do you think about it, do you care, what's your opinion?

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

What ya reckon?

?

KillPhil08 · Mar 8, 2009

I'd have the line a little higher than that, but regardless - I find at major points on the daily charts or 4h prices tend to overshoot before doing the real move. Perhaps just low vol on the first few days of january allowed manipulation?

I really have no clue when it comes to this.

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

Its a crude example that is just that, and the date is irrelevant, what my point is, when you say, 'if this trendline' breaks, we are dropping', this is based on it happening before 9/10 and that is the only basis.

What if it comes back through and skyrockets? What was the intent behind the move? Was it IB MM manipulation to gather 'waek hands' / liquidity for the move up, was it someone after a better price for a move up, was it meant to drop but some freak news that meant it went up? Was it fixing times? Was it at an alternate area of supply and demand where a hedge fund was looking for a buying opp?

Granted, these things aren't relevant if you have an edge and just want to make money but understanding the action better, can only help...

Joey25 · Mar 8, 2009

I'd say the reaction is at the low of the "Minus Development" area from about the 30th November.

Price broke out of an area of congestion, slumped, then only pulled back partially. That area of non-overlapping candles represents an area of swift rejection, with the other fade area being the low of the original breakout area. The original breakout was from an ascending trendline, with a small-range day before the big breakout - it's the low of that small-range day which (for me) would be the next "big fade".

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

Joey25 said:
I'd say the reaction is at the low of the "Minus Development" area from about the 30th November.

Price broke out of an area of congestion, slumped, then only pulled back partially. That area of non-overlapping candles represents an area of swift rejection, with the other fade area being the low of the original breakout area. The original breakout was from an ascending trendline, with a small-range day before the big breakout - it's the low of that small-range day which (for me) would be the next "big fade".

Cheers, Interesting view mate and whilst this thread is not necessarily for Q&A to answer why examples did what they did but to explore and make people aware and get exactly as you have done, different views of what really is happening as, an S/R level or trendline on its own, are no better than 2 MA's crossing.

elitejets · Mar 8, 2009

Most days I think the big boys are picking up stops or getting a better price for an obvious move.
That day was ADP unemployment though and the numbers were ugly.

KillPhil08 · Mar 8, 2009

Fat finger

.

Joey25 · Mar 8, 2009

wasp said:
Cheers, Interesting view mate and whilst this thread is not necessarily for Q&A to answer why examples did what they did but to explore and make people aware and get exactly as you have done, different views of what really is happening as, an S/R level or trendline on its own, are no better than 2 MA's crossing.

Cheers, the old-fashioned MP stuff was all about identifying what the "other timeframe" player (Central Banks etc) are up to, leaving their footprints behind.

You can use it to identify more subtle capping and flooring behaviour from commercials such as wheat producers or instituions such as the BOJ.

I don't think you can just churn the data through a model, otherwise just garbage in, garbage out.

arabianights · Mar 8, 2009

I'd say that you can come up with whatever BS explanation you like as there's no way of falsifying it

DaxDestroyer · Mar 8, 2009

wasp said:
In a sort of follow on from Trendie's 'different or better' thread....

There are 2 types of retail trader imo, one who just wants a sure fire consistent income, and the other who wants just that, but is also driven by understanding and learning and really trying to get to the core of his market like Neo at the end of the matrix and truly 'understand'. See attached.

So why is this in the psychology, not general or first steps thread?

From Mr Stochastic to Wykoff and Ross hooks.... These are all 'ways of making money' from the markets, giving a higher % ROI with minimal W/L and high R:R but do they make you understand more? Not in my view...

So where are you in the poll?

______________________________

So this thread is for opinions when it comes to reading between the lines...

Big boys, Big money, smart money, strong hands... call them what you will... We all see a chart, see major S/R, hear the UK or US news, see triangles, pendants, channels, moving average crosses but who tries to look through the chart (per attachment)...

A certain member posts charts into the future and explains a lot of the action with strong hands sucking in weak hands, or, you will hear lots of talk about stop hunting...

Sounds plausible and this changes obviously to the market as there are different participants and its easier to manipulate a stock but are there a group out there in each market moving it around and doing what they want per the above, or is everyone, from CB's to hedge funds and the herd, just trying to buy low and sell high.... Do you consider it?... Does this come into your thoughts when you see S/R 'holding' only for a spike to appear... Was that stop hunting? Was that an IB filling a better price for a client....? Is everyone on the NYSE floor after a good fill or better price or trying to screw each other over....

So for the benefit of all, those of you who try to look behind the candles, what are your thoughts?

Despite good earnings, did stock A rise because the last quarter reports were good or because the 'smart hands' took it below S/R to suck in shorts?

Did cable tank because of poor retail sales or because the BoE had something else going on at the same time?

how much of the market behaviour is manipulation of stops and orders and screwing the herd and the 'weak hands' or is everyone as ignorant and your stop was taken out because a client at a hedge fund wanted price up higher for his short position....

Do you think about it, do you care, what's your opinion?

The market always is a tug-of-war. The "real signals" are the signals, which fail. So to create or start a real move, you need the false breaks,the traps.

A year is not too different to a daily chart. First you have an opening range, than one or more false breaks, then when enough people are positioned, the real move starts. Obviously into the COUNTER direction as markets move only if people HAVE to do something

No traps, no moves

So they sucked the guys into long positions and then slaughtered them

The good thing is: Charts NEVER gave a BUY signal there

And as the area was rejected it was an easy ride for the "informed"

Is that, what you wanted to hear?

I don't think, you wanted to hear me echoing Mervin King :"We know, that our quantitive approach works as it is UNLIMITED"

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

arabianights said:
I'd say that you can come up with whatever BS explanation you like as there's no way of falsifying it

So EOD, forget trying to understand whats really going on? Just whack on a MacD and take the signs as there is no way of proving why?

Joey25 · Mar 8, 2009

arabianights said:
I'd say that you can come up with whatever BS explanation you like as there's no way of falsifying it

Over a large enough sample using the same techniques, you can test a null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis that it is BS, with a statistical degree of confidence such as 95%.

For example, a chi-squared test for normality or uniformity can test the hypothesis that prices are ranging.

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

DaxDestroyer said:
The market always is a tug-of-war. The "real signals" are the signals, which fail. So to create or start a real move, you need the false breaks,the traps.

A year is not too different to a daily chart. First you have an opening range, than one or more false breaks, then when enough people are positioned, the real move starts. Obviously into the COUNTER direction as markets move only if people HAVE to do something No traps, no moves

So they sucked the guys into long positions and then slaughtered them

The good thing is: Charts NEVER gave a BUY signal there

And as the area was rejected it was an easy ride for the "informed"

Is that, what you wanted to hear? I don't think, you wanted to hear me echoing Mervin King :"We know, that our quantitive approach works as it is UNLIMITED"

No, that is what I wanted to hear, your opinion!

I'm not looking for an answer, rather a discussion, on a trading discussion board, about whats really happening in the market as you watch the chart visualisation.

So thanks!

arabianights · Mar 8, 2009

wasp said:
So EOD, forget trying to understand whats really going on? Just whack on a MacD and take the signs as there is no way of proving why?

it may be better than convincing yourself of some other reason and being entirely wrong... then starting to trade based upon said reason rather than whatever you were doing before...

Joey25 said:
Over a large enough sample using the same techniques, you can test a null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis that it is BS, with a statistical degree of confidence such as 95%.

For example, a chi-squared test for normality or uniformity can test the hypothesis that prices are ranging.

You can't do a statistical test on a story (e.g. 'Central Bank is selling $XXXX').

foredog · Mar 8, 2009

Stop hunting?

Wouldn't that be quite difficult in FX markets becasue the amount of volume needed to push the price 10 pips the wrong would be far more than you get back taking out the stops?

I mean could Bucketshop.com hit the bids in $bns to push it down just to take out a few $1 longs????

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

DaxDestroyer said:
The market always is a tug-of-war. The "real signals" are the signals, which fail. So to create or start a real move, you need the false breaks,the traps.

A year is not too different to a daily chart. First you have an opening range, than one or more false breaks, then when enough people are positioned, the real move starts. Obviously into the COUNTER direction as markets move only if people HAVE to do something No traps, no moves

So they sucked the guys into long positions and then slaughtered them

The good thing is: Charts NEVER gave a BUY signal there

And as the area was rejected it was an easy ride for the "informed"

Is that, what you wanted to hear? I don't think, you wanted to hear me echoing Mervin King :"We know, that our quantitive approach works as it is UNLIMITED"

Okay, take an extremely liquid market like the Euro....

IB's and hedge funds are trading huge sizes so they need liquidity to get in at a good price, but, unlike stocks and shares, there doesn't need to be a buyer for every seller as there are many other elements (ie commerce).

Now, apart from the few, most hedge funds and IB's for clients, are just as ignorant as the average retailer, just trying to get the best prices for their clients and make as much $% as possible.

I know a few hedge fund traders who certainly don't go into the euro looking to suck anybody into anything, they are struggling as hard as everyone else to be the best and have their best R:R possible.

CB's just do what they have to when they have to, IB's and HF's are looking for the best prices and retailers are just trying to survive... Everyone is trying to guage what the institutions and CB's are intending and trying to get in with them.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen but, I think too much is read into 'stop hunting' and 'false breaks' and 'sucking people in', ther is no elite manipulation group, just alot of money as ignorant and dumb as the next and the last.

Joey25 · Mar 8, 2009

arabianights said:
You can't do a statistical test on a story (e.g. 'Central Bank is selling $XXXX').

To that I have no answer!

wasp · Mar 8, 2009

arabianights said:
it may be better than convincing yourself of some other reason and being entirely wrong... then starting to trade based upon said reason rather than whatever you were doing before...

I could tell you to drive a car by pressing on that accelerator pedal and that brake one next to it to slow down.... Or I could spend another few hours explaining the mechanics of the engine and which would make you a better driver?

Granted, whether in a car or in the markets, we may be wrong but understanding the main participants usual behaviour will make you a better trader, knowing how and when and why they act will improve your trading results.

No one is right all the time regardless of how you approach the markets anyhow.

DaxDestroyer · Mar 8, 2009

wasp said:
No, that is what I wanted to hear, your opinion!

I'm not looking for an answer, rather a discussion, on a trading discussion board, about whats really happening in the market as you watch the chart visualisation.

So thanks!

ok, my pleasure

I have one thing to add. Even if I have a strong opinion, this has nothing to do in my trading. Maybe it influences my size, but not the direction of my trade.

Good example was the Dax so far this year. As I had a STRONG BEARish view. I took all sell signals with the double size compared with all buy signals.

The shorter your time frame, the less opinion should you have. Otherwise it is a road to financial desaster

what are they up to? Do you care?

Do you look, Do you Care?

Nah, just 'show me the money!'

Yes, my brain hurts after every day

What do you think the squiggly lines are for?

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