Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make?

This is a discussion on Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make? within the New to Trade2Win forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd PS: Those traders returns published are very much on the low side. Lee I believe ...

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Old Oct 31, 2017, 11:16am   #91
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PS: Those traders returns published are very much on the low side.

Lee
I believe the returns are the average of 50 plus accounts that are tracked in the index. The top 20 accounts do perform better but that also means the bottom 20 actually loose money.

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Old Oct 31, 2017, 12:44pm   #92
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Actually to earn in forex, you need to learn. It took me few years to start earning and make it consistently. But I still main part of my funds is managed by other trader Inna Rosputnia Lady F. I am not ready to manage all my funds. But what I know for sure trading is great business. It take a lot of time and money to become successful, but it worth it.
to really make it you need to run your own show ......

never put your nuts in the basket of another ....they may get crushed or lost !

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Old Oct 31, 2017, 12:48pm   #93
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It's disappointing but true. Every time I mention it (same for you Brumby), you will be ignored or fought against and your words, and more to the point, the proof and evidence, will fall silently on deaf ears. People just don't want to hear it. So what do we do, we say... f**k em. I spend my time investing on me and with my family and friends, not trying to convince others.

Post up a thread that states 'make 20% a week working 1 hour a day'
or
'How to make £300-£500 per day trading the markets'
And see them all swarm like flies.

People that are 'making' (term used lightly) tens of percentage points a week/month will not last in this business. The main and only reason why so many come in to this business in the first place is because they are lazy and want to earn big bucks doing f**k all.

This is why technical trading is far easier to sell to the masses than fundamentals. Why read, read and read some more when you can just draw some lines on a chart and 'make money'.

For what it's worth, my personal ratios are just over 70% hit rate with an annual return just inside the double digits, however, that's trading a big account and is considered extremely low risk - therefore low return.

PS: Those traders returns published are very much on the low side.

Lee
i ran some training a few years back and once the students started to realise the work needed and what i was doing i think it was a real shock .....in truth most were looking for the black box easy solution ........

sorry gang - it aint there .....its about experience and bloody hard work

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Old Nov 1, 2017, 5:37pm   #94
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I gave up trading my own account some time ago and put my money into a basket of funds instead. Double digit returns and don't need to lift a finger.
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Old Nov 1, 2017, 5:45pm   #95
 
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I gave up trading my own account some time ago and put my money into a basket of funds instead. Double digit returns and don't need to lift a finger.
double digit returns? i like that basket whats in it?
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Old Nov 2, 2017, 2:09pm   #96
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Send me a PM if you're interested.
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Old Nov 2, 2017, 6:49pm   #97
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I gave up trading my own account some time ago and put my money into a basket of funds instead. Double digit returns and don't need to lift a finger.
theres 89 places left ...hurry
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Old Nov 5, 2017, 1:47am   #98
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I seem to be able to do between 100-200% a year, any more than that and the risk of a blow up becomes counter productive, in the past I have achieved 500% in 6 months, but blew up.
In the last 2 months I have achieved over 100%, but this I am sure is down to the unusually strong bull market and to extrapolate this to a yearly return of over 600% would be unrealistic.
I feel that 200% is very achievable, if you are prepared to undertake a 50% chance of 30-40% draw down.
If you cant stomach that risk. And have a risk tolerance of a 10-20% chance of a 5 to 15% max drawdown, then I would estimate profit of around 7 -12% pa would be achievable.
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Old Nov 5, 2017, 9:10am   #99
 
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I seem to be able to do between 100-200% a year, any more than that and the risk of a blow up becomes counter productive, in the past I have achieved 500% in 6 months, but blew up.
In the last 2 months I have achieved over 100%, but this I am sure is down to the unusually strong bull market and to extrapolate this to a yearly return of over 600% would be unrealistic.
I feel that 200% is very achievable, if you are prepared to undertake a 50% chance of 30-40% draw down.
If you cant stomach that risk. And have a risk tolerance of a 10-20% chance of a 5 to 15% max drawdown, then I would estimate profit of around 7 -12% pa would be achievable.
Show me a professional trader that makes 200% pa and I'll show you some one who will regularly busts out.
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Old Nov 5, 2017, 10:45am   #100
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Show me a professional trader that makes 200% pa and I'll show you some one who will regularly busts out.
Definitely for sure, If I were a professional trader trading a fund or even just someone else's money, a friend or family I would be targeting 8-12% and probably reaching 4-8% pa.

But as it is I am free to take as much risk as I like, I find that 100-200% pa is a good balance for me of dramatic equity growth verses risk of a 30 to 60% draw-down.

With this I am relying on a great deal of market luck against a sudden unforeseen movement (gap) in any of my positions. When this happens I would expect 10% equity drop in that position. If this happens several times in positions or one event that effects all positions then I am looking at a 40-60% draw-down (no opm or client money could handle that).
So at 100 -200% pa returns I am playing the game that this doesn't happen more than twice a year for me, without building up a reserve. I am also regularly withdrawing 50% of any large win (a large win is about 20% plus, so after about 5 large wins I have withdrawn about 50% of original capital) and turning it into cash, which also slowly means a 60% blow up is less important.

Everyone plays the game with different outcomes in mind, so they have different rules. If I had more money than I new what do with I would not even be playing,
and I would be very risk adverse my money would all be tied up in rental income.

But as it is I am at the right time of life and right financial comfort levels where the greater risk is making sense for me and proving profitable. Only last week I easily paid for my sons school ski trip out of one weeks market profits. I don't expect it to last forever, either my luck or the current licence to print money bull market will run out.
But while it works and while I continue to withdraw from my account, why stop.
I should add that one of my earlier mistakes was not withdrawing any profits, this is fatal, as when a blow up comes, there is nothing to show.
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Old Nov 5, 2017, 11:14am   #101
 
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Definitely for sure, If I were a professional trader trading a fund or even just someone else's money, a friend or family I would be targeting 8-12% and probably reaching 4-8% pa.

But as it is I am free to take as much risk as I like, I find that 100-200% pa is a good balance for me of dramatic equity growth verses risk of a 30 to 60% draw-down.

With this I am relying on a great deal of market luck against a sudden unforeseen movement (gap) in any of my positions. When this happens I would expect 10% equity drop in that position. If this happens several times in positions or one event that effects all positions then I am looking at a 40-60% draw-down (no opm or client money could handle that).
So at 100 -200% pa returns I am playing the game that this doesn't happen more than twice a year for me, without building up a reserve. I am also regularly withdrawing 50% of any large win (a large win is about 20% plus, so after about 5 large wins I have withdrawn about 50% of original capital) and turning it into cash, which also slowly means a 60% blow up is less important.

Everyone plays the game with different outcomes in mind, so they have different rules. If I had more money than I new what do with I would not even be playing,
and I would be very risk adverse my money would all be tied up in rental income.

But as it is I am at the right time of life and right financial comfort levels where the greater risk is making sense for me and proving profitable. Only last week I easily paid for my sons school ski trip out of one weeks market profits. I don't expect it to last forever, either my luck or the current licence to print money bull market will run out.
But while it works and while I continue to withdraw from my account, why stop.
I should add that one of my earlier mistakes was not withdrawing any profits, this is fatal, as when a blow up comes, there is nothing to show.
Well done on taking out half your (big) winnings. Keep that up.

However, your drawdowns are stupidly high and is why you 'need' to have such ridiculously high gains. A drawdown of 50% would require you to gain 100% to be back to where you were.

PS: the markets do not know nor do they care whether you play with your money, uncle Bobs or the banks cash. Results are results and stats are stats.
Someone with such large gains has to constantly be at large risk. Therefore a large chance at any given point of account blow up. To start again that person then has to fund with money withdrawn. The larger the withdrawal, the larger the funding of account.

Lee
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Old Nov 8, 2017, 10:58pm   #102
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Definitely for sure, If I were a professional trader trading a fund or even just someone else's money, a friend or family I would be targeting 8-12% and probably reaching 4-8% pa.
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Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
Well done on taking out half your (big) winnings. Keep that up.

PS: the markets do not know nor do they care whether you play with your money, uncle Bobs or the banks cash. Results are results and stats are stats.

Lee
Hi Lee, what I was getting at was, if I were trading other peoples money in any form. I would reduce risk by means such as keeping more in cash, being a lot less concentrated, being more diversified, initial risk of 0.2 to 0.5 rather than my current risk of 2.5% per trade, leaving less risk on the table, etc...
It would be much more of a thinly spread targeted basket portfolio and less of a speculators account.
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Old Nov 9, 2017, 12:05am   #103
 
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Hi Lee, what I was getting at was, if I were trading other peoples money in any form. I would reduce risk by means such as keeping more in cash, being a lot less concentrated, being more diversified, initial risk of 0.2 to 0.5 rather than my current risk of 2.5% per trade, leaving less risk on the table, etc...
It would be much more of a thinly spread targeted basket portfolio and less of a speculators account.
Hi Jason101,

I hear, get and understand your point entirely. If you'd have been in this business as long as me then you would also have heard your words above many times over with various degrees of defence and denial from the lips that said it.
The one about 'lessening risk if it were other peoples money', is in fact the opposite to how traders (other peoples money) and funds work.

Hedge funds etc cash in on wins (and management charges) so wish to make their clients as much money as possible so they can collect their 10-20% 'incentive fee'. As a retail trader, you take 100%, therefore you can actually afford to greatly reduce your risks.

However, this should have no bearing on how you trade, not one bit. As I mentioned above in my post, the markets do not care about who owns the money on the table, neither should you. If you can show a return the way you trade, why would you change that for friends and family and ultimately give them less a return whilst also taking far less yourself?

Think about what you are saying: You would trade 'more sensibly, less risk, more carefully', if it were someone else's money. This obviously makes sense to you but it doesn't to me.

Surely your money is worth as much to you as someone else's money is worth to you, in actual fact, your money should be worth more, after all, its your blood, sweat and tears that have gone in to getting the money to trade with in the first place. Your friends and family would legally understand the risks taken and accept (not necessarily like), but accept the fact you lost them their money. You on the other hand would have to live with the fact that you have traded at high risk and blown your account (maybe several times over which is the norm), lost your confidence and money and have to start again.


The bottom line is this: If you find a way to trade, trade the way you found - do not change for anyone.

Lee
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Old Nov 9, 2017, 9:24am   #104
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I seem to be able to do between 100-200% a year, any more than that and the risk of a blow up becomes counter productive, in the past I have achieved 500% in 6 months, but blew up.
In the last 2 months I have achieved over 100%, but this I am sure is down to the unusually strong bull market and to extrapolate this to a yearly return of over 600% would be unrealistic.
I feel that 200% is very achievable, if you are prepared to undertake a 50% chance of 30-40% draw down.
If you cant stomach that risk. And have a risk tolerance of a 10-20% chance of a 5 to 15% max drawdown, then I would estimate profit of around 7 -12% pa would be achievable.
Trading systems are designed to exploit patterns in the market - no pattern persists consistently 100% of the time (much less in truth as we all know)

when the market performs in line with the systems parameters then money will be made (assuming the system is designed to maximise returns in these conditions)

When the market is not performing in line with the system the best that can happen is that the system does not open trades ...if it is opening frequent trades then the system will be losing (bleeding) money for the trader

thats it .....some you win some you lose

thats why its swings and roundabouts and for many many traders its tough to beat certain targets consistently ......... in certain (limited) market conditions the returns will be ultra sweet ...and then in poor conditions you will get killed

welcome to trading everyone .....this game is not linear

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Old Nov 9, 2017, 9:27am   #105
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once a trader designs systems to understand market dynamics and then to identify and exploit the sweet conditions but not get too burnt in the tougher conditions then they will at least be in the game with a chance

until that point in their evolution - the trader is throwing darts at a board blindfolded

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