Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make?

This is a discussion on Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make? within the New to Trade2Win forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by NVP what idiot goes 75% of pot on each bet ? .....kelly criterion ? spare me N ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Nov 14, 2017, 7:39pm   #113
 
Quantt's Avatar
Joined Jul 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by NVP View Post
what idiot goes 75% of pot on each bet ? .....kelly criterion ?

spare me
N
Don't have time to watch the video, but a very smart man Ed Thorp said half Kelly should be the goal for the retail trader...
__________________
"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
Quantt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 15, 2017, 11:38pm   #114
Joined Oct 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by NVP View Post

when the market performs in line with the systems parameters then money will be made (assuming the system is designed to maximise returns in these conditions)


thats why its swings and roundabouts and for many many traders its tough to beat certain targets consistently ......... in certain (limited) market conditions the returns will be ultra sweet ...and then in poor conditions you will get killed


N
You have to make hay while the sun shines and then batten down the hatches!
Jason101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2017, 12:30am   #115
Joined Oct 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
Hi Jason101,

I hear, get and understand your point entirely. If you'd have been in this business as long as me then you would also have heard your words above many times over with various degrees of defence and denial from the lips that said it.
I recon you are right there.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
The one about 'lessening risk if it were other peoples money', is in fact the opposite to how traders (other peoples money) and funds work.

Hedge funds etc cash in on wins (and management charges) so wish to make their clients as much money as possible so they can collect their 10-20% 'incentive fee'. As a retail trader, you take 100%, therefore you can actually afford to greatly reduce your risks.

However, this should have no bearing on how you trade, not one bit. As I mentioned above in my post, the markets do not care about who owns the money on the table, neither should you. If you can show a return the way you trade, why would you change that for friends and family and ultimately give them less a return whilst also taking far less yourself?

Think about what you are saying: You would trade 'more sensibly, less risk, more carefully', if it were someone else's money. This obviously makes sense to you but it doesn't to me.
I am sure this is my fault, what I was getting at is that a fund that stated a probable draw down of 50% would not be viable, there would be no investors willing to take part.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
Surely your money is worth as much to you as someone else's money is worth to you, in actual fact, your money should be worth more, after all, its your blood, sweat and tears that have gone in to getting the money to trade with in the first place. Your friends and family would legally understand the risks taken and accept (not necessarily like), but accept the fact you lost them their money. You on the other hand would have to live with the fact that you have traded at high risk and blown your account (maybe several times over which is the norm), lost your confidence and money and have to start again.Lee
These are all very interesting points.

I do feel I would care more about losing someone else's money than mine. I am not sure if that is a good or bad trait in trading?

It is a tight rope walk between blowing up completely, blowing up after setting aside some winnings (for a recovery account) and lastly turning a moderate account into a pretty decent size.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
The bottom line is this: If you find a way to trade, trade the way you found - do not change for anyone.Lee
I have found my way, it is just very unconventional. It would be hard to trade in other ways for me. When I feel I can pretty easily take 100's % out of the markets in a few weeks or months, it is very hard to get my head around making a conscious effort to earn less, even though I know it would reduce my risk, which is greater than most profitable traders.

Last edited by Jason101; Nov 16, 2017 at 12:52am.
Jason101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 28, 2017, 6:10pm   #116
 
hscot's Avatar
Joined Feb 2016
I like it when people ask about profit before they've even started trading. Why don't they ask about what else could they read or learn to become a successful trader?
hscot is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: Lee Shepherd
Old Dec 6, 2017, 12:31pm   #117
Joined May 2013
Profitable trading comes when you:
Don't lose money in a week
Don't lose money in a Month
Don't lose money in a year
To say you won't lose money in a day is a bit of wishful thinking. Lok for the profitable months in preference, remembering a profitable month is when you do not lose money.
Tytus_Barnowl is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: Lee Shepherd
Old Dec 6, 2017, 7:44pm   #118
 
Quantt's Avatar
Joined Jul 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tytus_Barnowl View Post
Profitable trading comes when you:
Don't lose money in a week
Don't lose money in a Month
Don't lose money in a year
To say you won't lose money in a day is a bit of wishful thinking. Lok for the profitable months in preference, remembering a profitable month is when you do not lose money.
Unfortunately, you'll lose money on all of those time intervals, no matter how good you are... the trick is have more winning than losing years...
__________________
"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
Quantt is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How much will make you happy and how long will it take you to make that much money? clylbw The Foyer 7 Feb 24, 2010 5:22pm
How much money can I make? schoe First Steps 9 May 9, 2004 8:33pm
Would this Make Money mark69 Trading Systems 11 Jun 20, 2003 9:16am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)