Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make?

This is a discussion on Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make? within the New to Trade2Win forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by blusignals Actually, it really just depends on how smart you are. If you know how to work ...

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Old May 19, 2018, 9:08pm   #151
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Originally Posted by blusignals View Post
Actually, it really just depends on how smart you are. If you know how to work with data analytically and know when to move or hold with strategy, then it's possible to be as rich as Warren Buffett.
I agree with Trader Vinner here

all smart data analysts should be as rich as Warren Buffet then....

dont think they are dude....

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Old May 20, 2018, 9:21am   #152
 
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In blusignals defence they state it’s ‘possible’, and of course he’s 100% correct. It is possible.

As traders on a trading website we should be fully aware of the difference between a given outcome (probability) and a possibility. Having said that, I would agree that the probability is very slim.

Have a great Sunday.
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Old May 20, 2018, 7:28pm   #153
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Originally Posted by Tytus_Barnowl View Post
Hi Essentially if you go into trading with the aim to make money then all that will happen is that you will lose. All self thinkers do lose, they never advertise it (not my fault I'm a pillock guv).
Like I said - Find a simple system that one can make Profit- THE REPEAT.
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Old May 21, 2018, 9:00pm   #154
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Originally Posted by Trader Vinner View Post
are you sure?
so you think that almost nobody(incl. you) cannot working with data analytically?
How many person do you know that are as rich as the Warren Buffet?
Well you need to learn tools like econometrics, R, statistics to be able to conduct meaningful analysis. Otherwise its pointless even if you have good data.
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Old May 21, 2018, 9:08pm   #155
 
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Well you need to learn tools like econometrics, R, statistics to be able to conduct meaningful analysis. Otherwise its pointless even if you have good data.
Yes,you're right but you forgetting about one more very important thing - psychology.
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Old May 21, 2018, 9:49pm   #156
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Originally Posted by hatemypips View Post
Well you need to learn tools like econometrics, R, statistics to be able to conduct meaningful analysis. Otherwise its pointless even if you have good data.
Show me one person who has done this and is as rich as Warren?

You can learn all those languages (I know many of them) but they are useless if you can't derive a strategy. I have worked at many investment banks, a couple of asset managers, and currently at a major stock exchange who calculates the dax and other indices (over 8000). In all of that exposure, I have seen financial models applied in code in various languages and price testing strategies. None of them do what you talk of because it doesn't work.

Outside of financial models all you have are algorithms that look for patterns in data. While this may be far more precise and surface information previously unknown, it isn't going to be the basis of a strategy. The most successful ones out there that have applied machine learning have added their own rule sets based on experience and include fundamental drivers in the rule sets. Everyone that's tried to apply this approach using just price data have either failed, found partial success, or short term fantastic results. They all however fail over the long haul.

If you think about it, the algorithms are really just a computerised flavour of the thought process undertaken by your average retail trader. It's a pointless endeavour because the flaw in the design is assuming price can tell you what the drivers of price is when it's just a historical print of the outcomes of drivers. For the data to be meaningful you have to include data points that occur before price reacts and only then will a meaningful strategy be possible. Ray Dalio did this and his trading engine by his own admittance makes better decisions then he does. Of course its the culmination of his rules applied to market driving data that makes the magic happen. The computer just follows a logical path based on the rules.

Trust me when I tell you this is snake oil without the correct inclusion of market drivers.

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Old May 23, 2018, 7:48pm   #157
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Originally Posted by Mactheriverrat View Post
Like I said - Find a simple system that one can make Profit- THE REPEAT.
......for at least a 1,000 trades with equal execution / consistency to prove its edge....
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Old May 23, 2018, 7:51pm   #158
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Show me one person who has done this and is as rich as Warren?

You can learn all those languages (I know many of them) but they are useless if you can't derive a strategy. I have worked at many investment banks, a couple of asset managers, and currently at a major stock exchange who calculates the dax and other indices (over 8000). In all of that exposure, I have seen financial models applied in code in various languages and price testing strategies. None of them do what you talk of because it doesn't work.

Outside of financial models all you have are algorithms that look for patterns in data. While this may be far more precise and surface information previously unknown, it isn't going to be the basis of a strategy. The most successful ones out there that have applied machine learning have added their own rule sets based on experience and include fundamental drivers in the rule sets. Everyone that's tried to apply this approach using just price data have either failed, found partial success, or short term fantastic results. They all however fail over the long haul.

If you think about it, the algorithms are really just a computerised flavour of the thought process undertaken by your average retail trader. It's a pointless endeavour because the flaw in the design is assuming price can tell you what the drivers of price is when it's just a historical print of the outcomes of drivers. For the data to be meaningful you have to include data points that occur before price reacts and only then will a meaningful strategy be possible. Ray Dalio did this and his trading engine by his own admittance makes better decisions then he does. Of course its the culmination of his rules applied to market driving data that makes the magic happen. The computer just follows a logical path based on the rules.

Trust me when I tell you this is snake oil without the correct inclusion of market drivers.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

agreed ........even supercomputers are still superdumb ....until you tell them the rules you wish to apply .....

creating algos and automated strategies is interesting though...it sure makes you dot every "I" and cross every "T" in a set of entry / exit trading rules

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Old Yesterday, 2:35pm   #159
 
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It depends on a lot how much money you are trading with, how many lots are you trading, your money management. Mostly it depends on the first two things mentioned above. It also depends on your trading strategy and how long are you keeping your position.
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