Russia's RTS Index futures - liquid tradable instrument.

This is a discussion on Russia's RTS Index futures - liquid tradable instrument. within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Lads and lasses, Hiya, trust all is well. I would hate publishing same information twice as it is already published ...

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Old May 31, 2010, 12:13pm   #1
 
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Russia's RTS Index futures - liquid tradable instrument.

Lads and lasses,

Hiya, trust all is well. I would hate publishing same information twice as it is already published in "Equities" Forum - however I reckon this is perhaps just as relevant to Index futures traders as to single stocks ones (if not more).

Anyway - you can find my original post under:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/equi...rivatives.html

I will be very brief here. Me personally comes from S&P, Nasdag and FTSE futures and options trading background, my romance with Emerging Markets started flourishing only 5-6 years ago. I am currently heading up International Sales & Trading Desk at a Russia's state-owned bank called TransKredit Bank Capital - TKB Capital (www.tkbc.ru), I am sure you never heard of it Obviously I look at Russia's RTS Index futures and options traded at a St. Petersburg exchange called FORTS every minute of the day and would like to introduce you lot to this potentially interesting instrument here.

You can get a general idea of what RTS (standing for Russian Trading System) is like these days browsing their official site:

http://www.rts.ru/en/

For a definition of RTS Index - see:

http://www.rts.ru/en/index/rtsi/

and finally for a detailed definition and settlement rules of front-end JUN10 future on RTS Index pls refer to the following link:

http://www.rts.ru/en/forts/contract.html?isin=RTS-6.10

What most peoiple DO NOT realise are 2 main things:

1) RTS Index Front-End future is a HIGHLY liquid instriment. In my post in "Equities" Forum I compared last Friday's daily volumes for JUN10 FTSE and RTS Index futures. They stood at 7 and 2.3 bil quid respectively.

2) You can trade Russian broad index pretty much ONLY thru RTS Index fuutres. At many points people tried to create proxies for RTS Index tradable on Western Exchanges - most notable ones are RDX Index on Wiener Borse, RIOB Index on London's EDX and MSCI Russia Index (MXRU Index) in Germany. The latter is perhaps the best proxy you can find internationally - RTS Index has 50 components in it, RDX and RIOB 16 and 15 respectively, with MSCI Russia Index having 28 components. HOWEVER, PROBLEM WITH ALL THOSE PROXIES IS - THEY ARE HIGHLY ILLIQUID, partly because for a long time Russian players and market-makers had no access to those international proxies.


Pls refer to my original post in "Equities" Forum if you would like to open an account at my Cyprus subsidiary (KIT Finance Europe) to start trading RTS Index futures - the process is actually VERY straightforward. I am opening accounts there for both individuals and funds - it is quickly becoming a very popular way to get access to Russian exchanges.

Cyprus subsidiary is good for many things - 2 of them being: 1) it is fully guaranteed by TKB Capital which is in turn guaranteed by the Kremlin; 2) there is no taxation whatsoever on your single account in Cyprus, meaning that the Russian 13% tax is not applicable here since the subsidiary is governed by Cyprus law where tax is zero and there is a Double Non-Taxation Treaty between Russia and Cyprus. You make a mil trading RTS Index fut e.g. - you get a mil in your account

Let me know if this is of interest.

Cheers
CW
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Old Jun 1, 2010, 7:47pm   #2
 
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Re: Russia's RTS Index futures - liquid tradable instrument.

china white started this thread One more quick comment here o Russia's RTS broad Index.

It is a common mis-perception that trading Emerging Markets gives you a HIGHER BETA for an increased risk, essentially giving you extra leverage as compared to trading G7 Indices.

That may be the case, may be not. I am attaching 2 quick charts for the past 8 years comparing BETA of Russia's RTS Index to our good old FTSE100 (on a weekly basis so you have enough number of points). Even though you may think trading RTS gives you 1.12-ish BETA in local currencies (Russian Ruble and British Pounds), when you scale everything down to USD, you have BETA OF ONE!!!

Meaning if you realistically invest greenbacks, on a large scale of events you do equally well trading Russia's RTS Index or FTSE100. Lil difference though - you can trade RTS through your Cyprus accounts (see discussion above) and pay zero % income tax on your profits.

Now risks. Pls convince me that trading FTSE100 thru an English broker who may be private or essentially on the Gov't books (like RBS) is anywhere safer than trading through a Russian broker with the same FSA registration as the English one - but who is owned and guaranteed by the Kremlin

Bottom line is - BETA=1, pretty much the same counterparty risks. Difference is 40%+ tax bracket in the UK, 13% in Russia and next to zero % in Cyprus. Now ask me why I moved over to Emerging Markets

CW
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Old Jun 5, 2010, 9:01am   #3
 
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Looking back a bit.

china white started this thread Guys let me know if you'd like to see my morning comments here as well. They are obviously more intended for funds - however quite a few individual accounts find them very useful.

Hate publishing a weekold morning comment - but here it is, I think it is more than relevant now. It was published after a massive sell-off in the markets that happened on 25 May was reversed in the late going:


From: v.googlenko@tkbc.ru [mailto:v.googlenko@tkbc.ru]
Sent: Wednesday, May 26, 2010 11:05 AM
Subject: Pivotal point - Morning Commentary - 26.05.2010

Good morning, it's Vadim, trust all is well.

Back in my trading days on S&P a so-called -10/+10 day when index moves one way in its early trading hours and then closes flat was considered to be a short-term reversal. Yesterday we had a -35/+35 day! Additionally VIX touched high 40ies and started recoiling back, now firmly in the 30ies league. I would expect a VERY positive end to the week - where we will have a unique opportunity to go SHORT.

FTSE will most likely bounce back into 5100 territory, but knowing how old lady trades on breaking mega-levels of 5000 variety I expect yesterday's close to be re-tested next week. Again, 5200-5250 band (if it gets there) is likely to be a great SHORT opportunity.

Here in Russia, RTSI Index futures showed additional 20 pts backwardation yesterday which was still being whacked by smaller players - and that was not along the avenue of closing out of longs - as Interest would have been shrinking then - on the contrary, Interest was massively on the Up, meaning that fast fingers were whacking even the lowest printed levels. Those fingers are likely to sweat a bit into the end of the week in my opinion - given S&P's reversal last night.

My 2 cents Good trading to you!

End of that Morning Comment.


Now - what now? In my strong opinion, best the bulls can hope for is a technical pattern that many call “Adam & Eve” where a quick dip down will be followed by a broad double-bottom clearly resembling Eve’s fascinating parts

See quick chatrs attached. After last Friday's massacre S&P needs another 2.5% on the way south to re-test the low of 25 May. FTSE, thx to its earlier than US close on Friday is 4%-ish above that mark.

If FTSE overshoots sounthbound at Monday's open, this may be a fantastic long swing opportunity.

CW
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Old Jun 7, 2010, 8:27am   #4
 
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Morning Comment - 07.06.2010.

china white started this thread Quick morning comment. I vividly recall starting to hear about Hungary’s problems about 2 years ago – but then no one cared. These days round the skeleton is bang out of the closet! Now – monthly job report that failed to live up to its billing on Friday. Curious thing is that even though the unemployment rate went down more than expected, by levels that mattered to the market it was a disappointment - I am talking here about expectations that more than 500, 000 jobs would be added to U.S. payrolls. And those 2 things are blamed to pile up to bring all major indices to their knees into the Friday close.

From a macro perspective, BP disaster, European jitters, there seems to be plenty to worry about, but I am hearing quite a few lads and lasses out there, who look at the economic potential of companies, say that the risk-reward actually looks pretty good currently. One has to agree that for the most part, companies so far are providing very positive guidance for sales and profits for the balance of this year and going into 2011. That includes large cap technology firms with exposure to Europe saying they haven't seen any impact yet. For one, I will mention Cisco Systems Inc. CEO John Chambers here who is voicing the most optimism in years!!!

As we mentioned in our morning comment on the 26 May – see below – after S&P recorded a -35/+35 pts reversal the day before, “FTSE will most likely bounce back into 5100 territory, but knowing how old lady trades on breaking mega-levels of 5000 variety I expect yesterday's close to be re-tested next week. Again, 5200-5250 band (if it gets there) is likely to be a great SHORT opportunity”. This scenario has been playing out down to a T. We still believe that the lows of 25 May (4900ish on FTSE100) will be re-tested. Best the bulls can hope for is a technical pattern that many call “Adam & Eve” where a quick dip down is followed by a broad double-bottom clearly resembling Eve’s fascinating parts

LIQUIDITY WILL TELL YOU if it is indeed a double bottom in the making OR if we are in for a basement treat. Russian RTS Index JUN10 future (VEM0) just gapped down 4% at the open – hardly a glorious precursor.

RUSSIAN SINGLE STOCKS: On Friday we saw poor trading activity in most of stocks; in blue chips selling pressure prevailed though the market stood rather still in spite of bad sentiment almost till the closing bell. Stocks of gold producers PLZL, PMTL, retailers MGNT, FIVE LI were quite strong during the day; we saw nice support in LKOH. TNBP/p were well bid during the day with no sellers seen around. In utilities sector we didn’t see much of activity except local demand in IRGZ, TGKI, BEGY, careful bids in distribution companies, trades in OGKA, OGKB, OGKF. In metals & coal sector one could see big supply, local interests to buy EVR LI. We continue to see demand for airlines - AFLT, TMAT. Mid of the day will show the direction for the market. Good trading to you!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sent: Wednesday, May 26, 2010 11:05 AM
Subject: Pivotal point - Morning Commentary - 26.05.2010


Back in my trading days on S&P a so-called -10/+10 day when index moves one way in its early trading hours and then closes flat was considered to be a short-term reversal. Yesterday we had a -35/+35 day! Additionally VIX touched high 40ies and started recoiling back, now firmly in the 30ies league. I would expect a VERY positive end to the week - where we will have a unique opportunity to go SHORT.

FTSE will most likely bounce back into 5100 territory, but knowing how old lady trades on breaking mega-levels of 5000 variety I expect yesterday's close to be re-tested next week. Again, 5200-5250 band (if it gets there) is likely to be a great SHORT opportunity.

Here in Russia, RTSI Index futures showed additional 20 pts backwardation yesterday which was still being whacked by smaller players - and that was not along the avenue of closing out of longs - as Interest would have been shrinking then - on the contrary, Interest was massively on the Up, meaning that fast fingers were whacking even the lowest printed levels. Those fingers are likely to sweat a bit into the end of the week in my opinion - given S&P's reversal last night.

My 2 cents Good trading to you!
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Old Jun 8, 2010, 8:39am   #5
 
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Morning Comment - 08.06.2010.

china white started this thread I will be short here. Yesterday S&P, I am sure, was LOVED by intraday traders as it made them a quick buck swinging 15 pts in the last hour. Them lads do not care whether such swing is up or down , however we do So - why was the swing southbound?

Ok, let’s see the 2 buzzwords from yesterday’s action. 1) Manufacturing improved in Germany for a second month in April. Surprise, surprise – make Euro lose another 17% and German manufacturing will fly to the sky. 2) Hungarian officials toned down comments about a potential default that rattled investors. With all my respect to Hungary – if investors are rattled THAT much by the state of an economy of THAT caliber, well THAT is really scary. You’d hardly expect a 15 pts up swing in this environment in the late going.

I will entirely agree with Mr. Holland who mentioned that investors are currently fearful and reacting quickly to both negative and positive news – with a lot of noise in the market right now. Technically – as I was mentioning all along – eyes on FTSE behaviour round 5000 line in the sand.

Russian Single Stocks:

Yesterday following bad sentiment in Europe and US Russian stocks opened with a gap down and most of market participants were not active waiting for an additional trigger to trade. Only in the second half of the day the market saw a direction - again following US futures most of chips closed the gap. And here right before the closing we got nice selling orders in GAZP, LKOH, ROSN, SNGS/p. SBER & RTKM were outperforming the broader market. Some activity was still seen in telecoms - investors tend to hold exposure here till the reorganization. In small caps activity was low - had some buyers in BORG RU, IZHZ RU…in utilities - had local buyers in InrerRao, MRSK Holding, sellers in RusHydro, sellers in AFLT, sellers in Russian auto producers AVAZ, KMAZ, SVAV. We recommend to pay attention to Russian metals sector where we expect a spike of activity ahead of release MMK's financials. Overall, in spite of bad sentiment coming from Europe, most Russian stocks look strong here, we still see enough cash on the sidelines ready to be put to action in Russia.
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Old Jun 9, 2010, 8:49am   #6
 
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Morning Comment - 09.06.2010.

china white started this thread Good morning, just a very quick observation today. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges yesterday totaled 11.5 billion shares, the most since May 26 and 20 percent higher than the 2010 average. MORE shares changed hands yesterday than on June 4, when a commonly blamed combo of Europe’s jitters and US jobs report sent US indices down the loo.

Buyers are galore – and they are picking up paper in volumes. Lows of 25 May are pretty much re-tested, at least by S&P500. And the volume reading yesterday may well be the turn-around hint.

RUSSIA: Neutral opening is expected in Russia and the market is likely to jibber around until midday waiting for clues from UK and US. I, for one, am rather sick and tired of this scenario playing out almost each day. Russian bell-weathers trade on extremely attractive multiples - Gazprom, Lukoil at P/E ~ 5, and there is a plethora of Russian stocks 'one should have' in emerging markets portfolios. Yesterday we kept on trading on high volatility, with most of prop traders trying their best to guess the direction. Most of Russian chips continued to show their strength and we tend to think that until upcoming quarterly expiration the situation will not change dramatically; currency market is under pressure - Russian ruble trades @ 31,74 vs USD. SBER is very strong after earnings release; Utilities are under pressure (IRAO yesterday retested the low of the year); we continue to see good demand for telecoms ahead of upcoming AGMs; high volumes are seen in RTKMp; in metals & coal sector we had sellers in EVR LI, NLMK LI, BLNG, while RASP found some support comfort.

Good trading to you!
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Old Jun 10, 2010, 8:38am   #7
 
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TKB Capital - Morning Comment - 10.06.2010.

china white started this thread Good morning!

Very brief today. +10/-20 pts day on S&P yesterday with quite a few LONGs and SHORTs shafted in an equally gruesome way. Investors are currently VERY fearful and reacting quickly to both negative and positive news - with a lot of noise in the market right now. Technically - as I was mentioning all along - eyes on FTSE behaviour round 5000 line in the sand. I still think that given current liquidity, this may well shape up to be a double bottom

The only thing I REALLY do not like is BP stock -16% in ADR form with 7% of equity changing hands) -50p. Cameron will have to save BP – weeks into the office at Number 10 - and this may prove to be too much of a burden. One can live with an idea of Greece and Hungary going bust, but you cannot keep on taking this world as it is with UK on the brink. I am indeed talking worst case scenario here.

RUSSIA: is seen opening flat on mixed world markets, crude oil is stable at $74,5/bbl, commodities make attempts to rebound a bit. Most likely Russian equity market will trade in a range till expiration of futures & options on RTS Index on Friday. Yesterday we had another quiet day with low volumes across the board, Russian blue chips simply followed US index futures, although some pressure on every up-tick was seen. We had big buying interest in BANE/p as well as in other Bashkirian names; saw buyers in telecoms with sizable interests there; had bids in SILV/p, sellers in AKRN, sellers of BLNG; in utilities yesterday we had some capped flows - local buyers in IRGZ, TGKG, MRKU, OGKB, a couple of sellers in TGKE.

Good trading to you!
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Old Jun 11, 2010, 9:00am   #8
 
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Morning Comment - 11.06.2010.

china white started this thread Good morning!

We mentioned on the 07 June - see below - that “We still believe that the lows of 25 May (4900ish on FTSE100) will be re-tested. Best the bulls can hope for is a technical pattern that many call “Adam & Eve” where a quick dip down is followed by a broad double-bottom clearly resembling Eve’s fascinating parts

Take a “butcher’s hook = look” at the charts attached. Perfect double kiss on S&P and a classic “Adam & Eve” pattern on FTSE. I am getting quite bullish here as a matter of fact.

RUSSIA: Higher opening is expected in Russia by no means, but we think that in the second half of the day traders should think of cutting part of newly opened longs ahead of long week-end in Russia (DAY OF RUSSIA as it is now officially called), moreover today we face expiry of futures & options on RTS index, so a bit of volatility may well be expected after noon. Russian specifics, shall we say

Good trading to you!



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sent: Monday, June 07, 2010 10:18 AM
Subject: TKB Capital - Morning Comment - 07.06.2010.
Importance: High


Quick morning comment. I vividly recall starting to hear about Hungary’s problems about 2 years ago – but then no one cared. These days round the skeleton is bang out of the closet! Now – monthly job report that failed to live up to its billing on Friday. Curious thing is that even though the unemployment rate went down more than expected, by levels that mattered to the market it was a disappointment - I am talking here about expectations that more than 500, 000 jobs would be added to U.S. payrolls. And those 2 things are blamed to pile up to bring all major indices to their knees into the Friday close.

From a macro perspective, BP disaster, European jitters, there seems to be plenty to worry about, but I am hearing quite a few lads and lasses out there, who look at the economic potential of companies, say that the risk-reward actually looks pretty good currently. One has to agree that for the most part, companies so far are providing very positive guidance for sales and profits for the balance of this year and going into 2011. That includes large cap technology firms with exposure to Europe saying they haven't seen any impact yet. For one, I will mention Cisco Systems Inc. CEO John Chambers here who is voicing the most optimism in years!!!

As we mentioned in our morning comment on the 26 May – see below – after S&P recorded a -35/+35 pts reversal the day before, “FTSE will most likely bounce back into 5100 territory, but knowing how old lady trades on breaking mega-levels of 5000 variety I expect yesterday's close to be re-tested next week. Again, 5200-5250 band (if it gets there) is likely to be a great SHORT opportunity”. This scenario has been playing out down to a T. We still believe that the lows of 25 May (4900ish on FTSE100) will be re-tested. Best the bulls can hope for is a technical pattern that many call “Adam & Eve” where a quick dip down is followed by a broad double-bottom clearly resembling Eve’s fascinating parts

LIQUIDITY WILL TELL YOU if it is indeed a double bottom in the making OR if we are in for a basement treat. Russian RTS Index JUN10 future (VEM0) just gapped down 4% at the open – hardly a glorious precursor.

RUSSIAN SINGLE STOCKS: On Friday we saw poor trading activity in most of stocks; in blue chips selling pressure prevailed though the market stood rather still in spite of bad sentiment almost till the closing bell. Stocks of gold producers PLZL, PMTL, retailers MGNT, FIVE LI were quite strong during the day; we saw nice support in LKOH. TNBP/p were well bid during the day with no sellers seen around. In utilities sector we didn’t see much of activity except local demand in IRGZ, TGKI, BEGY, careful bids in distribution companies, trades in OGKA, OGKB, OGKF. In metals & coal sector one could see big supply, local interests to buy EVR LI. We continue to see demand for airlines - AFLT, TMAT. Mid of the day will show the direction for the market. Good trading to you!
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Old Jun 15, 2010, 8:27am   #9
 
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Morning Comment - 15.06.2010.

china white started this thread Good morning! Very brief today - as Russia is waking up from an extended holiday, it is worth noting that on Western exchanges in the early going yesterday it was looking like the liquidity in the market (aka monies readily available to be put into action) was taking the upper hand over the global negativity hovering over the investors. Late going clearly changed the picture with S&P failing to take out an important confirmation level of 1100.

RUSSIA: Following Russian ADRs that grew yesterday by more than 1% on average, local market opened higher, also supported by more or less strong commodities and futures staying at the moment in green territory. Yesterday’s activity in ADRs was on extremely thin volumes, though we was big sellers searching for attractive bids. On Friday the market was well supported by positive US macro data and we continue to see ongoing rotation in many clients' portfolios; local accounts were better sellers due to ongoing redemptions. We had activity in BANE/p, buyers in TNBP with almost no offers seen; good demand for telecoms; metallurgical sectors keeps on trading under pressure (domestic accounts dominate); mixed flows in utilities sector (performance in last previous days looks worse than the broader market) - sellers in OGK4,6.

Shares of Uralkali will open with a gap on news that Suleiman Kerimov, Alexander Nesis & Filaret Galchev bought 53,3% (values @ $5,32 Bln) in the company from Dmitry Rybolovlev (yesterday ADRs rallied by more than 5%). According to Vedomosti Kerimov also bought 20% in Silvinit (valued @ $500 mln) from Mr. Rybolovlev. The biggest deal after Rusal's IPO after the crisis. Good trading to you!
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Old Jun 16, 2010, 8:24am   #10
 
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Morning Comment - 16.06.2010.

china white started this thread Good morning. There is a rhyming saying on the trading floor here - which would enrich any Cockney vocabulary if there was such a thing as Ruskie Cockney – “бабло и зло”, meaning roughly “money vs. evil” This is exactly the tug-of-war in the money we’ve been wrestling with for some time now - the liquidity in the market (aka monies readily available to be put into action) vs. the global negativity hovering over the investors.

Let us take a closer butcher’s, shall we? Evil did not go anywhere – BP bounce failed to materialize with a pathetic close yesterday, Greece’s downgrade concern is as strong as ever, with a list of countries lining up for potential crap-out growing every day. HOWEVER – liquidity flexed its muscles in 2 major ways yesterday: 1) News Corp.’s offer for British Sky Broadcasting showed corporate activity is not easing at all; and 2) US chipmakers confirmed growing demand for their chips.

Result? “бабло побеждает зло” – liquidity is winning over macro dark-cloud. Move from recession to recovery and onwards to expansion seems to be panning out now. In such a scenario stocks which are our top picks (among liquid DRs) – X5, Magnit and SeverStal – have no other option but to shine. Beaten-down developers of PIK and Mirland line-up – which are essentially a high BETA recovery bet – will rock’n’roll in such an expansion.

RUSSIA is opening in green zone due to positive US closing, strong Asian markets and stable commodities, oil is staying almost at $77. Yesterday trading activity was below average levels, at the same time most of blue chips spent the whole day in positive territory and closed at their HODs. Domestic accounts were buying across the board; most of ADRs were trading with a discount. We had buyers all day long in GMKN, GAZP, SNGSp, still saw interests in TNBP, BANE/p, were buyers in telecoms except RTKM, URSI, KUBN; were sellers in URKA after gap at the opening on news; sellers in RASP; saw demand for most of utilities. Good trading to you!
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