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European Traders Uncertain as Markets Brace for NFP, Rescue Plan Vote
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
Written by Ilya Spivak, Analyst for CFDtrading.com
Price action reflects substantial uncertainty, with US index futures and the dollar index effectively flat going into the European markets open.
Europe: What to Watch For
• Financial markets range-bound ahead of key US event risk
• Dollar corrects some NY-session gains, oil trading below $94/barrel
European Traders Uncertain as Markets Brace for NFP, Rescue Plan Vote
Price action reflects substantial uncertainty, with US index futures and the dollar index effectively flat going into the European markets open. All eyes are focused on Washington, DC once again as the US House of Representatives is set to vote on the Treasury’s financial market rescue plan again. This time, the bill is $850 billion versus the original $700bil, but some concessions have been added and the measure sailed easily through the Senate. The House rejected the initial draft in an initial vote. The proximity of the US Non Farm Payrolls report adds to volatility, with expectations calling for the world’s largest economy to shed -105k jobs in September.
DAX 5660.63
The final revision of the Purchasing Managers Index is set to be confirmed at 49.3. Euro Zone data may see spillover onto the Frankfurt bourse as EZ Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August. The uptick will likely come courtesy of cheaper fuel: Europeans see a boost to disposable income as crude oil continues to fall. The same dynamic saw German retail sales rebound to grow 3.6% in August versus a contraction of -0.8% in July. On balance, annualized retail sales are still seen standing firmly in negative territory at -2.4%, suggesting economic conditions in the 15-nation bloc remain under heavy downward pressure.
FTSE-100 4870.34
Economic data is to continue painting a bleak picture of the economy. The Purchasing Managers Index is expected to see continued contraction in the services sector with a print at 48.0 in September versus 49.2 in the preceding month. Meanwhile, the Bank of England Housing Equity Withdrawal figure is set to show that Britons cut borrowing against the value of their homes to just 2.5 billion pounds, the lowest in 9 years. This makes sense as the UK housing slump continues to weight on real estate values. Indeed, yesterday saw Nationwide’s measure of house prices shrank a whopping -12.4% in the year to September.
CAC-40 3963.28
The final revision of the Purchasing Managers Index is set to be confirmed at 50.4, a rare reading in expansionary territory for the otherwise sharply slowing number-two Euro Zone economy. Hopes that the credit crunch will end with the US rescue plan may be dashed as Euler Hermes SA, the world’s largest credit insurer, said they expect a “tougher environment” in the last two quarters of this year versus the first two.
IBEX 11002.30
Augusts’ annualized Industrial Output readings are due for release, with expectations favoring the downside as Spain looks to be the hardest hit of the Euro Zone by the current malaise having had a speculative housing bubble to rival that of the US and the UK. September’s Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector is also due for release.
MIB 25258.00
September’s Purchasing Managers Index for the service sector is set to contract to 48.1 from 48.5 in the preceding month. Top banks like UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA are likely to see volatility ahead of the US’ vote on the financial market rescue plan.
AEX 330.83
Europe’s largest oil company Royal Dutch Shell Plc reportedly plans to buy oil and gas exploring firm Regal Petroleum Plc for $1.2 billion. The world's largest oil and chemical storage company Royal Vopak NV bought a new storage terminal in North Carolina, US. Analysts have looked for foreign firms to look for buying opportunities in the US as favorable interest rates see the greenback rebound in 2009.
SMI 6730.94
The Consumer Price Index is set to show headline inflation slowed to an annualized 2.7% in September from 2.9% in the preceding month. This would be consistent with the Swiss National Bank’s expectation that inflation will price pressures will moderate in the second half of the year and validate their decision not to raise borrowing costs. Indeed, bond yield forecasts suggest the SNB will cut rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter of next year.
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
Written by Ilya Spivak, Analyst for CFDtrading.com
Price action reflects substantial uncertainty, with US index futures and the dollar index effectively flat going into the European markets open.
Europe: What to Watch For
• Financial markets range-bound ahead of key US event risk
• Dollar corrects some NY-session gains, oil trading below $94/barrel
European Traders Uncertain as Markets Brace for NFP, Rescue Plan Vote
Price action reflects substantial uncertainty, with US index futures and the dollar index effectively flat going into the European markets open. All eyes are focused on Washington, DC once again as the US House of Representatives is set to vote on the Treasury’s financial market rescue plan again. This time, the bill is $850 billion versus the original $700bil, but some concessions have been added and the measure sailed easily through the Senate. The House rejected the initial draft in an initial vote. The proximity of the US Non Farm Payrolls report adds to volatility, with expectations calling for the world’s largest economy to shed -105k jobs in September.
DAX 5660.63
The final revision of the Purchasing Managers Index is set to be confirmed at 49.3. Euro Zone data may see spillover onto the Frankfurt bourse as EZ Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August. The uptick will likely come courtesy of cheaper fuel: Europeans see a boost to disposable income as crude oil continues to fall. The same dynamic saw German retail sales rebound to grow 3.6% in August versus a contraction of -0.8% in July. On balance, annualized retail sales are still seen standing firmly in negative territory at -2.4%, suggesting economic conditions in the 15-nation bloc remain under heavy downward pressure.
FTSE-100 4870.34
Economic data is to continue painting a bleak picture of the economy. The Purchasing Managers Index is expected to see continued contraction in the services sector with a print at 48.0 in September versus 49.2 in the preceding month. Meanwhile, the Bank of England Housing Equity Withdrawal figure is set to show that Britons cut borrowing against the value of their homes to just 2.5 billion pounds, the lowest in 9 years. This makes sense as the UK housing slump continues to weight on real estate values. Indeed, yesterday saw Nationwide’s measure of house prices shrank a whopping -12.4% in the year to September.
CAC-40 3963.28
The final revision of the Purchasing Managers Index is set to be confirmed at 50.4, a rare reading in expansionary territory for the otherwise sharply slowing number-two Euro Zone economy. Hopes that the credit crunch will end with the US rescue plan may be dashed as Euler Hermes SA, the world’s largest credit insurer, said they expect a “tougher environment” in the last two quarters of this year versus the first two.
IBEX 11002.30
Augusts’ annualized Industrial Output readings are due for release, with expectations favoring the downside as Spain looks to be the hardest hit of the Euro Zone by the current malaise having had a speculative housing bubble to rival that of the US and the UK. September’s Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector is also due for release.
MIB 25258.00
September’s Purchasing Managers Index for the service sector is set to contract to 48.1 from 48.5 in the preceding month. Top banks like UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA are likely to see volatility ahead of the US’ vote on the financial market rescue plan.
AEX 330.83
Europe’s largest oil company Royal Dutch Shell Plc reportedly plans to buy oil and gas exploring firm Regal Petroleum Plc for $1.2 billion. The world's largest oil and chemical storage company Royal Vopak NV bought a new storage terminal in North Carolina, US. Analysts have looked for foreign firms to look for buying opportunities in the US as favorable interest rates see the greenback rebound in 2009.
SMI 6730.94
The Consumer Price Index is set to show headline inflation slowed to an annualized 2.7% in September from 2.9% in the preceding month. This would be consistent with the Swiss National Bank’s expectation that inflation will price pressures will moderate in the second half of the year and validate their decision not to raise borrowing costs. Indeed, bond yield forecasts suggest the SNB will cut rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter of next year.
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
