Have we seen the bottom of the FTSE???

I have been loving the look of the FTSE graph since the 5th June when it broke the 6000 mark - ever since I had success in picking points to go short...

That is until the last couple of weeks! It hit a low (looking at the daily graph) on the 15th July and since has slowly been creeping up - looking like a mini bull. Since that day I have noted the following bottom troughs (approx):
15/07 - 5195
28/07 - 5275
04/08 - 5319
19/08 - 5324
25/08 - 5430

This has raised the question - have we seen the end of the bear market? Figures coming out the US is getting better but the UK economy still looks weak compared to the US and Europe. I have read a lot of analyst opinions stating that the worse is still to come and we are still yet to experience the full extent of all the bank's writedowns....in which case are we just in a temporary mini bull?

Any opinions or thoughts....

Charts...............you decide

Charts...............you decide

Thanks Bladerunner.

My personal opinion is that there is plenty of still downside risk. I think the FTSE may fall back towards the 5000 mark before the end of the year before recovering. This has been my long term opinion for a while. If the FTSE breaks the 5500 mark again I can see it happening soon....

It did this between the 9th and 15th July and has slowly recovered since. This has skewed my theory and has raised the notion that we are now in a (slow) recovery period...may be I missed my point already!!

Any thoughts?

I firmly commited to the downside. This is a bull market rally and will (hopefully) start to fade at 5800 before retracing to 5000 and hitting new lows of 4900 early next year. These are my personal opinions and the way I'm trading for the next few months.

Hi there, I am new to this Forum

I had recalled that in 2006, I gave this piece of advice to a friend, Mike. I told him that he should get some money ( preferably GBP 50,00 - GBP 100,00 ) and get into futures for FTSE or even spreadbetting.

I told him that the FTSE 100 would rise 1,000 over ticks into the now 5,500 mark!
Of course, I normally charge a small fee if I were to invest on his behalf .......
Now, coming to think of it, the rally is losing steam, figures from sectors of banking, construction, property ( including worldwide figures ), retail and also other figures of CPI and inflation/ interest rates suggests that the economy is heading straight downwards.

So, a piece of advice that I would now give to anyone would either dump certain shares or keep 'em ( not for too long ) and get into the short-selling strategy!

S K


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi there

Be one with GOD, so that HE may appoint a deliver for your Soul! -HariHaraBramKalki ( S K )

TysonA said:

I have been loving the look of the FTSE graph since the 5th June when it broke the 6000 mark - ever since I had success in picking points to go short...

That is until the last couple of weeks! It hit a low (looking at the daily graph) on the 15th July and since has slowly been creeping up - looking like a mini bull. Since that day I have noted the following bottom troughs (approx):
15/07 - 5195
28/07 - 5275
04/08 - 5319
19/08 - 5324
25/08 - 5430

This has raised the question - have we seen the end of the bear market? Figures coming out the US is getting better but the UK economy still looks weak compared to the US and Europe. I have read a lot of analyst opinions stating that the worse is still to come and we are still yet to experience the full extent of all the bank's writedowns....in which case are we just in a temporary mini bull?

Any opinions or thoughts....

Click to expand...

Thanks Trading2k.

Interesting point - what sort of timescale do you believe the 5800 point may be hit by?
Is there enough good news out there to lead to such a rally?

My thoughts are that if we are indeed in a mini rally then we should not go beyond the 5650-5670 area before the fall...especially if it happens slowly i.e. over the next 2-3 months.

It is good to hear someone validate my previous opinion though! Thanks!

Thanks S K.

I would say that I agree with you - my analysis of the economic figures especially in the UK tell me that the worst is still to come. But having been hit by this mini bull, I have started to wonder if this is going to be the end of the bear market that we experienced.

I am looking for a good entry point to go short - initially I saw 5500 as a good level. But it has now been broken...how far can the mini bull go before it we see the fall that we both think will happen??!

It will be interesting to see what happens when the US figures come out today! I have a feeling that we will see the FTSE rally...

Hi, Tyson....... My Advice

Hi again

Tyson, it is reassuring that you are waiting ( and not heading straight on ).

If you read the news that the british government is going to introduce a wind-fall tax on the energy companies here. Wouldn't you agree that there would be a stagnation or at least some inverse effect of the stocks of these energy companies.

This would happen despite the profits or earnings of the energy companies. Of course, the labour government being cash-strapped would still go ahead with the tax collection!

Those companies not doing well would not be good buys anyway, so you can bet that 5,600 is a good entry point to start. By the way, can you tell me which company do you use for the CFD/ Futures or spread trade/ bet?

I can offer some guidelines. You should know that if there is no money, there can never be any to be made! So, those companies that are dodgy - avoid at all costs! Otherwise, the moneys that you might invest in, might not be guaranteed should that institution not be able to have enough holdings of moneys to pay its clients!

Well, please give some allowance of days when it reached 5,575 as it will signal the time to get in!

S K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi there

Be one with GOD, so that HE may appoint a deliver for your Soul! -HariHaraBramKalki ( S K )

TysonA said:

Thanks S K.

I would say that I agree with you - my analysis of the economic figures especially in the UK tell me that the worst is still to come. But having been hit by this mini bull, I have started to wonder if this is going to be the end of the bear market that we experienced.

I am looking for a good entry point to go short - initially I saw 5500 as a good level. But it has now been broken...how far can the mini bull go before it we see the fall that we both think will happen??!

It will be interesting to see what happens when the US figures come out today! I have a feeling that we will see the FTSE rally...

Click to expand...

Hi SK,

Look at the rally following the GDP figures out of the US! Looks like we're in a whole new ball park now...

Am considering a short position...long term, with a mental stop around 5800...only thing that is stopping me is that tomorrow is also a big day for economic figures, so I may re-evaluate at the beginning of next week...

I like your interpretation of the wind-fall tax on energy companies, I think that it will certainly cause an inverse effect.

I use IG Index to spreadbet - I would highly recommend it.

There seems to be a load of bottom fixation on T2W today.

You guys can't have spotted the swingin' the ftse thread. The swing trend changed to up on 6 August and swingers switched to favouring longs. Those waiting the first retracement got it on 21 August and will be long from around 5410.


good trading

jon

It will go where it goes, and only those who attempt to second guess where it's going will lose money.

Oh, well. The fundamental analysis and the tech analysis suggests otherwise. More companies are giving up hope on GB as they transfer their head office to Rep. of Ireland. Of course, the Labour government will still have to impose wind fall tax on the oil and energy companies though. There is no loss of moneys here as the FTSE index will be facing a resistance and a support at 5,600 ( plus minus some ). It is at this point that investors would look out for. Where is the investment when people stop buying?

The whole sale price of Gas and Electricity has risen and of course, the energy companies would be enjoying the profits definitely. Check out news! Of course, anyone with a penchant for oil and energy companies stock must seize this opportunity. The Labour government will still try to impose a windfall tax though.

S K

Support at 5,650

Tyson, the FTSE closed at 5,601 on Thurs and 5,636 on Fri. IT DID NOT PASS the 5,650 point! Next coming week, we will be seeing either a retrace or downward, a 100 plus downward! That will be quite a lump sum of ticks there!

S K

TysonA said:

Thanks Bladerunner.

My personal opinion is that there is plenty of still downside risk. I think the FTSE may fall back towards the 5000 mark before the end of the year before recovering. This has been my long term opinion for a while. If the FTSE breaks the 5500 mark again I can see it happening soon....

It did this between the 9th and 15th July and has slowly recovered since. This has skewed my theory and has raised the notion that we are now in a (slow) recovery period...may be I missed my point already!!

Any thoughts?

Click to expand...

Thanks S K.

Looks like you could be correct here - am going to watch the first few hours today to get a feel before I consider shorting though. Could be a very interesting week!!

Hi, Tyson

Fundamentals and Tech Analysis can't be wrong as the signals are always there. We, if a person always have 2 meals each day, chances are that he will have a problem if he does not have 2 meals the next day! He definitely would, 1) Steal, if there is a food shortage, 2) Kill, if there are wild stock or farmed animal stock around and or even 3) Turn Cannibal, if given that there are already dead human beings available ( due to the hunger )! Each scenario being escalating in severity of the same situation!

You will not see the FTSE pass the closing point of 5,637 on Fri as I am writing this reply, my chap. But, please do reconsider using IG spreads as I do not find them trustworthy enough ( my criteria being very very strict ). But of course, for smaller betting sums like yours ( I presume and hope that is the case ) of not more than a few thousands perhaps, that would be OK. But not for those who spread trade/ bet into the hundreds of thousands. Spread trading/ betting as I have advised is worse off much worse off than gambling itself! My rules are 1) Never rollover, 2) Never do without an exit point, 3) Not more than 1 to 3 hours, 4) Surf the Tide and get the Ride, 5) Check out the brokerage's financial stability from a day to day basis - what is the use of trading if the brokerage is going bust soon?

Please do take note of the above mentioned if you would consider in the long run as spread trading can be a lucrative money earner for some who are advised by myself!

S K

TysonA said:

Thanks S K.

Looks like you could be correct here - am going to watch the first few hours today to get a feel before I consider shorting though. Could be a very interesting week!!

Click to expand...

Hi, TysonA

Fundamentals and Tech Analysis can't be wrong as the signals are always there. Well, if a person always have 2 meals each day, chances are that he will have a problem if he does not have 2 meals the next day! He definitely would, 1) Steal, if there is a food shortage, 2) Kill, if there are wild stock or farmed animal stock around and or even 3) Turn Cannibal, if given that there are already dead human beings available ( due to the hunger )! Each scenario being escalating in severity of the same situation!

You will not see the FTSE pass the closing point of 5,637 on Fri as I am writing this reply, my chap. But, please do reconsider using IG spreads as I do not find them trustworthy enough ( my criteria being very very strict ). But of course, for smaller betting sums like yours ( I presume and hope that is the case ) of not more than a few thousands perhaps, that would be OK. But not for those who spread trade/ bet into the hundreds of thousands. Spread trading/ betting as I have advised is worse off much worse off than gambling itself! My rules are 1) Never rollover, 2) Never do without an exit point, 3) Not more than 1 to 3 hours, 4) Surf the Tide and get the Ride, 5) Check out the brokerage's financial stability from a day to day basis - what is the use of trading if the brokerage is going bust soon?

Please do take note of the above mentioned if you would consider in the long run as spread trading can be a lucrative money earner for some who are advised by myself!

TysonA, please do leave a SPACE between the S and the K. Thank you as they are 2 separate enities!

Happy spread trading to yourself, and all in trade2win!

S K

cu20052003 said:

Fundamentals and Tech Analysis can't be wrong as the signals are always there. We, if a person always have 2 meals each day, chances are that he will have a problem if he does not have 2 meals the next day! He definitely would, 1) Steal, if there is a food shortage, 2) Kill, if there are wild stock or farmed animal stock around and or even 3) Turn Cannibal, if given that there are already dead human beings available ( due to the hunger )! Each scenario being escalating in severity of the same situation!

You will not see the FTSE pass the closing point of 5,637 on Fri as I am writing this reply, my chap. But, please do reconsider using IG spreads as I do not find them trustworthy enough ( my criteria being very very strict ). But of course, for smaller betting sums like yours ( I presume and hope that is the case ) of not more than a few thousands perhaps, that would be OK. But not for those who spread trade/ bet into the hundreds of thousands. Spread trading/ betting as I have advised is worse off much worse off than gambling itself! My rules are 1) Never rollover, 2) Never do without an exit point, 3) Not more than 1 to 3 hours, 4) Surf the Tide and get the Ride, 5) Check out the brokerage's financial stability from a day to day basis - what is the use of trading if the brokerage is going bust soon?

Please do take note of the above mentioned if you would consider in the long run as spread trading can be a lucrative money earner for some who are advised by myself!

S K

Click to expand...

Hey jon, you was right. it is increasing with todays high od 5640.5 so far, do you recon it will go higher and will it come down in the short run to about 5500 mark?

Thanks

Singh

barjon said:

You guys can't have spotted the swingin' the ftse thread. The swing trend changed to up on 6 August and swingers switched to favouring longs. Those waiting the first retracement got it on 21 August and will be long from around 5410.


good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Hi, Singh

How about taking a look at my thread 'Has the FTSE reached its Top yet?' - use of Fundamentals and TA suggested that 5,650 is the projected Top. Well, not beyond that though.

The high in a candle-stick chart for today of course would be 5,640++ but the close being 5,620++ - it suggests a slow retracement but that would dwindle over time. In terms of FA, the retrace is due to Labour trying to give some tax-earning opportunity away and trying to cover that hole using another LOBANG ( tax ) and that in the short term provide a short lift for banking sector.

Oil and some other commodities should retrace - do look out for it as you can go long. In my opinion, if you are into Forex as well - dump GBP as it will lose value to the USD in the long term! Please tread carefully as Forex and Commodities Futures Contract can ruin a trader!

S K

singh2jatt said:

Hey jon, you was right. it is increasing with todays high od 5640.5 so far, do you recon it will go higher and will it come down in the short run to about 5500 mark?

Thanks

Singh

Click to expand...