What Information do I need to Look for to Trade the Dow Jones

This is a discussion on What Information do I need to Look for to Trade the Dow Jones within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by dbphoenix As for being right less than 50% of the time, if you can't do better than ...

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Old Nov 12, 2017, 4:22pm   #9
 
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
As for being right less than 50% of the time, if you can't do better than that, you ought to find some other way of occupying yourself.
Strategies where 'Reward' is several multiples of 'Risk' are very common and we all know the basic maths behind their profitability...
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Old Nov 12, 2017, 5:02pm   #10
 
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Strategies where 'Reward' is several multiples of 'Risk' are very common and we all know the basic maths behind their profitability...
On paper. But the only component of this over which the trader has control is risk. Unless he cuts his profits short. Which most newcomers do. Which tosses the expected reward out the window. Unfortunately, most traders have to blow up several times before they figure this out.
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Old Nov 12, 2017, 5:08pm   #11
 
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Thomas-M started this thread Thanks guys, very helpful, I'll do some reading soon, just playing about with the alert thing I mentioned earlier now.
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Old Nov 21, 2017, 12:58am   #12
 
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Hi

I'm getting overwhelmed trying to piece together all of the things I need to monitor in order to predict how the Dow will do.
.............
That's easy enough, it just goes up and down - sometimes sideways for a while .

Choosing to bet one of these and then holding your nerve whilst it goes against you to an overwhelming extent, before behaving itself - is the hard part. That's where reading, learning, chart hours/days/weeks/months / years come in

Yes it's hard, but if you really want to make it and are bloody minded enough to spend the time, money and effort, you will gradually improve.
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Old Nov 21, 2017, 9:35am   #13
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Thanks guys, very helpful, I'll do some reading soon, just playing about with the alert thing I mentioned earlier now.

If you are trading long-term off daily charts, you need to decide if you're going to be comfortable following the trend or trading against it. If long-term trend-following, I wouldn't consider being short on the Dow until the 20EMA is below the 50, the 50 is below the 200 and the slope of the 50 is downwards. Even then, there might be stronger downtrends to get behind: trend-following demands multiple targets as many charts won't show trends that meet your criteria much of the time.

A short entry as described is probably weeks away. I do take MA cross-overs at times, but at the very least price would have to be already below the 200 when the 20 cut below the 50. This looks unlikely in the near future on the Dow chart.
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