Edge set and forget indices trading

This is a discussion on Edge set and forget indices trading within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by foroom lluzers If price falls I am adding more , with my strategy , I am also ...

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Old May 3, 2017, 1:40pm   #9
Joined Oct 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
If price falls I am adding more , with my strategy , I am also rolling over the positions on options in following weeks , using a unique method.

I buy , hold and add or I buy ,hold and take profit.

I can go through pain of holding losing short term positions.
Darktone will be proud of you!

Hey if it works it works - markets have to go up over time in a cycle, always have, always will. TIME is the only uncertainty, but inflation/deflation/stagnation is a certainty so as long as we are ahead of the game after all factors are taken into account, then cool.

But markets can be timed better (all IMHO) - lets take the fed tonight, be patient, and if we have a spike up on the data, then use this as a timing tool to short, as the foundation to the move/cycle has already been put in place. Just wouldn't want to risk too much allocation being short into it, but could be done say with a qrt of position, then add if we just sell and break down.

There are a lot of vulnerable longs in the market at present - could get messy for a few months.

But after all said and done - it will buy back up, and you will be back in the black (non timing POV).
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Old May 3, 2017, 2:45pm   #10
Joined Apr 2017
foroom lluzers started this thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educ...ml#post2893374

Warren buffet invests , hedge funds try to time the markets .The real proof is on the net .The same results apply to short term trading , hence most of these timing failures end up as vendors , but these vendors are really succesful at one thing , selling not trading.


http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educ...ml#post2896904

The way people are taught to trade in zero sum game , will eventually lead to losses and ruin.See how market timing does not work.The market calls the first shot ,price moves in a direction , you follow the price and enter a trade.At this point price breaks down , remains there or continues in your direction.Move may be end soon or be last leg of move .

In all cases you hace a 33% chance of trend continuation.The image in the thread shows , 80% ofthe time you enter a move it chops , the price stalls.It is called getting chopped out.

Market timing is ineffective for short term traders including day traders , price action trading and other short term gambling like options.
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Old May 12, 2017, 6:15am   #11
Joined Apr 2017
foroom lluzers started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
If price falls I am adding more , with my strategy , I am also rolling over the positions on options in following weeks , using a unique method.

I buy , hold and add or I buy ,hold and take profit.

I can go through pain of holding losing short term positions.
Here this is how to make profits

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...ml#post2904484
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Old May 12, 2017, 6:28am   #12
Joined Apr 2017
foroom lluzers started this thread set and forget eliminate or reduce the 80% psychological risks from trading.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/psyc...ent-forum.html
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Old May 12, 2017, 8:00am   #13
Joined Apr 2017
foroom lluzers started this thread Trades without stops will occasionaly lose very heavily , the losses from this type of trading will wipe out several months of profits.Placing stops is a double edged sword , stops are hit either when bucket shops /spreadbetting brokers look for stops or when markets become extremly volatile.Using stops can result in stops getting taken out , and then to make things worse, the price goes without you.


Using a weekly or monthly put option for a long trade or a call option for a short position , is an alternative .There is the cost of the options to be deducted from profits , but this cost gives the holding power to hold on to your trade , for almost a week or month.

As an example
weekly dax put long cost 34 strike 12400
long cash dax 12463

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...ml#post2901946
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Old May 13, 2017, 5:34pm   #14
Joined Apr 2017
foroom lluzers started this thread There are two ways to trade this

Only long trades , because they give higher % hit rate than short trades.Stock market supports on indices are respected.

1)Using weekly options as stop , plus a long cash position

2)After a fall in price to the previous support , go long with a put as stop
If price drops even lower , add Second position add a position at next lower support.with a put as
a stop, this can be monthly options

3)Wait until profit is achieved , if profit is not achieved renew

This is a rough idea of how I trade it.

After 4 losses I double the position size , after 8 losses *4 . after 12 *8.

It can be a no loss system for good traders who understand their instrument.

I only trade Dow and Dax.
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Old May 14, 2017, 10:07am   #15
Joined Feb 2002
Alright, very very long-term, all stock indices tend to rise, if for no other reason that they are continually upgraded by deletion of the weakest stocks and addition of the next strongest. But this alone is no reason to always be buying all indices at all times.

Inevitably, this philosophy means investing increasing capital in long positions which are more likely to fall in price than rise. And the basis for this is not related to economics or TA or FA, its simply derived from how much money you are currently down. Removal of the elements of skills and knowledge from affecting the outcome of the investment reduces it to voluntary gambling.

This is surely the opposite of prudent money and risk management?
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Old May 14, 2017, 10:33am   #16
Joined Apr 2017
foroom lluzers started this thread
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
Alright, very very long-term, all stock indices tend to rise, if for no other reason that they are continually upgraded by deletion of the weakest stocks and addition of the next strongest. But this alone is no reason to always be buying all indices at all times.

Inevitably, this philosophy means investing increasing capital in long positions which are more likely to fall in price than rise. And the basis for this is not related to economics or TA or FA, its simply derived from how much money you are currently down. Removal of the elements of skills and knowledge from affecting the outcome of the investment reduces it to voluntary gambling.

This is surely the opposite of prudent money and risk management?
On a short term basis indices are well supported , they respect supports and long trades tend to do better .After most retraces , intraday and short term , indices tend to rebound.

The odds are more in your favour , after a string of losses , the market is long biased , fed is supporting it with puts i.e fed put.

If initial 4 trades are risk of 4% in total , then the next 4 are 8% , the total risk is only 12%, if next 4 trades lose the risk increases to 28%.Investing in stockmarkets can give you similiar risks.

How often do you get 12 consecutive losses , buying at supports on indices?If this 28% risk gives you a loss recovery method , and eventually zero losses , then it is worth it.You can always do option put spreads to reduce the 28% risk to maybe 15%.

If this trading gives you a 100 ticks a week profit and an income of £1,000 , then £50,000 year income on £100,000 capital ,with a risk of £28.000 is not bad.There is no profit without risk , but depends on individual beliefs.

You can always change the system into a long and short biased system , to reduce risk to half.
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