think this rally was temporary?

This is a discussion on think this rally was temporary? within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; did we hit bottom? i just think based on history the big one is just on the horizon...

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Old Feb 13, 2016, 7:00am   #1
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think this rally was temporary?

did we hit bottom? i just think based on history the big one is just on the horizon
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Old Feb 13, 2016, 4:41pm   #2
 
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Originally Posted by Stoney_21 View Post
did we hit bottom? i just think based on history the big one is just on the horizon
i think the rally IS temporary rather than was
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Old Feb 13, 2016, 9:38pm   #3
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Who knows and who cares ?

As traders just go with the flow and pick up the money....

..in the FT today I read that most of the big trading houses have now called over 80% of their Q1 predictions wrong......everything has reversed on what they thought.

So think less and trade what you see ......only the market is 100% correct all the time

N
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Old Feb 13, 2016, 10:31pm   #4
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The same question again in another form.

For pity's sake, nobody knows.
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Old Feb 13, 2016, 10:34pm   #5
 
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Isn't every rally temporary by its very nature?
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Old Feb 13, 2016, 11:43pm   #6
 
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That's what they said in '09
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Old Feb 14, 2016, 8:45am   #7
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That's what they said in '09
True, but we've not had '08 yet.

(Well we did, in '08, but you know what I mean).

'Trade what you see' is one way of dealing with it - the other is to consider the current flow of economic data, all of which is showing the US is becoming quite late-cycle and the Fed does not have the monetary tools to deal with it as it never normalised policy after the GFC. That all strongly suggests more downside particularly when you take quite unforgiving equity valuations into account.
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Old Feb 14, 2016, 10:13am   #8
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Look at 2008 50%+ plunge and you will see many rebounds along the way to the final bottom of 2009. But as @tomorton said, noone knows.
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Old Feb 14, 2016, 11:37am   #9
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Look at 2008 50%+ plunge and you will see many rebounds along the way to the final bottom of 2009. But as @tomorton said, noone knows.
The gurus on Bloomberg and CNBC have not confirmed anything. so how can it be????
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Old Feb 14, 2016, 12:20pm   #10
 
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Originally Posted by Erasmus View Post
True, but we've not had '08 yet.

(Well we did, in '08, but you know what I mean).

'Trade what you see' is one way of dealing with it - the other is to consider the current flow of economic data, all of which is showing the US is becoming quite late-cycle and the Fed does not have the monetary tools to deal with it as it never normalised policy after the GFC. That all strongly suggests more downside particularly when you take quite unforgiving equity valuations into account.
I agree. I've seen nothing climactic about any of this. But the stock market detached itself from earnings long ago, and rallies can last much longer and go much farther than they would otherwise.

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Old Feb 14, 2016, 3:08pm   #11
 
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The last time ES was rolling over from a strong uptrend and *equally as weak as we are currently* was 1/23/2008. The fact we have a double bottom is a better pattern match with 3/18/2008 but the day to day rebounds and such as happened in the past don't matter. What's important today is ES is oversold and going to try to rally combined with the fact this is the anti-thesis of the ideal field position for initiating shorts. ...but oversold doesn't mean ES won't continue lower immediately.

It would be foolish to think I will act on anything I've said without my eyes wide open to what ES is doing at the current moment.
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Old Feb 14, 2016, 3:52pm   #12
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Trade what you see, not what you think.

Saying that, how long before NIRP, more QE(called something else this time) or helicopter money is used. And what effect will it have on markets.

B*llocks to a barn dance though, volatility is certain, providing day traders plenty of opportunity.
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Old Feb 15, 2016, 9:11pm   #13
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The gurus on Bloomberg and CNBC have not confirmed anything. so how can it be????
an example how to use a lot of words and say nothing
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-still-bullish
Of course in the end indices are bullish. In 2586 Dax will be well above 14000 - guaranteed!!
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Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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