inventor OK-Score
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Dear Trade2Win Friends :
Only once I like to introduce myself to you.
I am a 60 year old Dutchman living in Belgium.
During the period 1995 -2001 I followed the PhD program at the University of Amsterdam, however not finalising my dissertation for obvious reasons as I will explain within the second part of this message.
AIM OF THE INVESTIGATION WAS TO COMPARE Prof. Altman's Z-Score and Prof. Bilderbeek (University of Twente) MODEL with the MODEL I developed myself (the OK- Score tm).
Models that can be compared in results, however not in the modelling.
This means that on the same data-set also the Z-Score and Bilderbeeks model were tested against the OK-Score. Without the shadow of a doubt I was able to make an enormous improvement in bankruptcy-predictions (98%) whereas the Z-Score scored approx. 78%.
In fact I scored the Type I = (all bankruptcies) : 100% and Type II = (all running ones) : 97%
The scientific part of my dissertation dealt with the system failures of both Altman and Bilderbeek. Both gentlemen started their modelling with the assumption that the ratio’s of a group of failed companies explicitly will differ from a group of running ones.
THAT IS NOT CORRECT. The group running ones is not an homogeneous group since their ratio’s will also differ towards both ends of the spectrum. In that way redundancy will always appear in the model.
I DEVELOPED A TOTAL NEW CONCEPT based upon the principles of fuzzy logics,
developed by Professor Zadeh and was able to identify 81 (9x9) different positions for any company.
These 81 different positions were based upon two major variables a) the OK-Solvency and b) the OK-ratio.
The OK-solvency is the normal solvency, however adapted slightly in case some company aspects differ from calculated (fixed) norms. I mean the volume of rising debts/stocks against the volume of rising turnover etc.
The OK-ratio is the new algorithm I developed, which I refused to reveal in order to receive my PhD.
Since testing also on the STOCK EXCHANGE did bring such absolute results I stopped my dissertation without revealing the algorithm and started to develop a marketing and sales concept for its by-product.
In fact, the result of my investigation, the prediction of bankruptcies was overwhelmed by the by-product of my investigation, which was the rating system the OK-rating method, however then reduced from 81 different positions to the ten OK-classes.
THE MODEL IDENTIFIED WITHOUT ANY SHADOW OF A DOUBT THE ENRON (1999), WORLDCOM (1999) AND THE PARMALAT (2000) and the AHOLD (2002) CASES before happening. The years within braces are the years identifying the basic problems from the annual report from the year before, so annual report Enron 1998 etc. The Ahold case was demonstrated during a TV-interview one year BEFORE the out-brake in 2003. See my website.
During three other TV> appearances I informed the audience about the dip to come for Unilever which shares were sold at Euro 72.
I offer any FUNDMANAGER, TO SCRUTINISE - A N Y of these cases to be performed by yourself or even any other case unknown to me.
Major tests and an investment fund now have shown that the stock picking of "OK" nominated stocks from an universe (such as the Dutch AEX or S&P 100 will always lead to an out-performance to the rest of the universe.
The semi-variance (see also Prof. Markowitz 'PortFolio Selection' 1959) and (Prof. Javier Estrada 2005) in comparing the AEX (Dutch stock-exchange and the OK-selected ones of the AEX) were as follows :
Upsize deviation AEX 8,54 against 10,0 of the OK-selected funds from the same index
Downsize deviation AEX 16,25 against 9,72 of the OK-selected funds from the same index.
Probably for the first time in history a scientific proof can be delivered of the qualities
of an enhanced index system.
To interested people I can send related articles in Dutch as in English such as published
in the Herald Tribune.
It is my wish to spread my wings into other countries since I believe to find a more ready market for this venture than here in the Netherlands.
I hope to be hearing from you and I am always prepared to visit you in order to demonstrate or to follow any scrutinising test.
Kindest regards
Willem D. Okkerse
inventor of the OK-Score
member of the Institute of Forensic Auditors Brussels
Only once I like to introduce myself to you.
I am a 60 year old Dutchman living in Belgium.
During the period 1995 -2001 I followed the PhD program at the University of Amsterdam, however not finalising my dissertation for obvious reasons as I will explain within the second part of this message.
AIM OF THE INVESTIGATION WAS TO COMPARE Prof. Altman's Z-Score and Prof. Bilderbeek (University of Twente) MODEL with the MODEL I developed myself (the OK- Score tm).
Models that can be compared in results, however not in the modelling.
This means that on the same data-set also the Z-Score and Bilderbeeks model were tested against the OK-Score. Without the shadow of a doubt I was able to make an enormous improvement in bankruptcy-predictions (98%) whereas the Z-Score scored approx. 78%.
In fact I scored the Type I = (all bankruptcies) : 100% and Type II = (all running ones) : 97%
The scientific part of my dissertation dealt with the system failures of both Altman and Bilderbeek. Both gentlemen started their modelling with the assumption that the ratio’s of a group of failed companies explicitly will differ from a group of running ones.
THAT IS NOT CORRECT. The group running ones is not an homogeneous group since their ratio’s will also differ towards both ends of the spectrum. In that way redundancy will always appear in the model.
I DEVELOPED A TOTAL NEW CONCEPT based upon the principles of fuzzy logics,
developed by Professor Zadeh and was able to identify 81 (9x9) different positions for any company.
These 81 different positions were based upon two major variables a) the OK-Solvency and b) the OK-ratio.
The OK-solvency is the normal solvency, however adapted slightly in case some company aspects differ from calculated (fixed) norms. I mean the volume of rising debts/stocks against the volume of rising turnover etc.
The OK-ratio is the new algorithm I developed, which I refused to reveal in order to receive my PhD.
Since testing also on the STOCK EXCHANGE did bring such absolute results I stopped my dissertation without revealing the algorithm and started to develop a marketing and sales concept for its by-product.
In fact, the result of my investigation, the prediction of bankruptcies was overwhelmed by the by-product of my investigation, which was the rating system the OK-rating method, however then reduced from 81 different positions to the ten OK-classes.
THE MODEL IDENTIFIED WITHOUT ANY SHADOW OF A DOUBT THE ENRON (1999), WORLDCOM (1999) AND THE PARMALAT (2000) and the AHOLD (2002) CASES before happening. The years within braces are the years identifying the basic problems from the annual report from the year before, so annual report Enron 1998 etc. The Ahold case was demonstrated during a TV-interview one year BEFORE the out-brake in 2003. See my website.
During three other TV> appearances I informed the audience about the dip to come for Unilever which shares were sold at Euro 72.
I offer any FUNDMANAGER, TO SCRUTINISE - A N Y of these cases to be performed by yourself or even any other case unknown to me.
Major tests and an investment fund now have shown that the stock picking of "OK" nominated stocks from an universe (such as the Dutch AEX or S&P 100 will always lead to an out-performance to the rest of the universe.
The semi-variance (see also Prof. Markowitz 'PortFolio Selection' 1959) and (Prof. Javier Estrada 2005) in comparing the AEX (Dutch stock-exchange and the OK-selected ones of the AEX) were as follows :
Upsize deviation AEX 8,54 against 10,0 of the OK-selected funds from the same index
Downsize deviation AEX 16,25 against 9,72 of the OK-selected funds from the same index.
Probably for the first time in history a scientific proof can be delivered of the qualities
of an enhanced index system.
To interested people I can send related articles in Dutch as in English such as published
in the Herald Tribune.
It is my wish to spread my wings into other countries since I believe to find a more ready market for this venture than here in the Netherlands.
I hope to be hearing from you and I am always prepared to visit you in order to demonstrate or to follow any scrutinising test.
Kindest regards
Willem D. Okkerse
inventor of the OK-Score
member of the Institute of Forensic Auditors Brussels
Last edited by a moderator:
Thank you for your mesaage.
