Why do 95- 98% of retail traders fail

This is a discussion on Why do 95- 98% of retail traders fail within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by Piman78 It's possible that 30% are successful over a 3 month period of time. That just means ...

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Old Jun 29, 2014, 6:14pm   #17
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Originally Posted by Piman78 View Post
It's possible that 30% are successful over a 3 month period of time. That just means that 70% have already failed and the majority of the remaining 30% haven't failed yet.

Over a longer period of time I think the failure rate is more likely to be around 95%
ah Piman78 you are spot on there. just a hint of survrship bias is present in the statistics presented. so traders in those stats bust their accounts out and the % of profitable accounts goes up as they are no longer including the busted accounts which are now out of sample!

A simple analogy would be to visit Hiroshima 1 year after the bomb had landed and measure the mortality rate of residents from a sample of those that were still living and excluding the vast majority that were wiped out prior to that date. You could then go on to say that 1 year after the bomb 50% of people are in good health lol. Does that mean your chances of dying in a nuclear bomb are 50%, nope. A simple slight of hand for the naive here.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 6:00pm   #18
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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
There you go - put more money in your bucket shop account and you'll be more successful!
how did you do?
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 6:01pm   #19
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haha you digging up these old threads make me laugh...you are a character but with a good heart (isuspect, don't know for sure)

i wouldn't have it any other way

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Old Jun 5, 2017, 6:07pm   #20
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Originally Posted by mitch mconal View Post
haha you digging up these old threads make me laugh...you are a character but with a good heart (isuspect, don't know for sure)

i wouldn't have it any other way

Funny enough he dissapeared for last 2 years , these failures talk about 95% 98% (themselves) , then they see others in their mirrors.
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Old Jun 10, 2017, 5:49pm   #21
 
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I can tell you the hard facts with betfair. The king of betting exchange. I have a friend who works in accounts for the company.

He said 99.5 percent clients lose.

The 0.5 % takes it all.

I would say similar to financials.

You need the 99 percent losers in this game . As they pay the 1 percent.I paid my dues for years.We choose to give trading a try because if successful its lucrative. Its lucrative because of these stats. So embrace them.
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Old Jun 11, 2017, 5:55am   #22
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Originally Posted by goose4 View Post
I can tell you the hard facts with betfair. The king of betting exchange. I have a friend who works in accounts for the company.

He said 99.5 percent clients lose.

The 0.5 % takes it all.

I would say similar to financials.

You need the 99 percent losers in this game . As they pay the 1 percent.I paid my dues for years.We choose to give trading a try because if successful its lucrative. Its lucrative because of these stats. So embrace them.

just have to look at the evidence available to confirm these figures.If One studies this subject and Human psychology it is most likely true , a full understanding of psychology will reveal the rationale for failures of the 95% .Is It lucrative With 0.5 percent?How?

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Old Jun 11, 2017, 12:36pm   #23
 
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
just have to look at the evidence available to confirm these figures.If One studies this subject and Human psychology it is most likely true , a full understanding of psychology will reveal the rationale for failures of the 95% .Is It lucrative With 0.5 percent?How?
Hi buddy.

Very true about psychology.

Its lucrative because trading is a zero sub game.The money just gets transferred.from the losers to the winners.

So the betfair example.Betfair has more single trades in a day than wall street.Crazy stat yes. So the 99.5 who lose the funds go to the 0.5. hence why if successful its lucrative.
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Old Jun 11, 2017, 1:01pm   #24
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Hi buddy.

Very true about psychology.

Its lucrative because trading is a zero sub game.The money just gets transferred.from the losers to the winners.

So the betfair example.Betfair has more single trades in a day than wall street.Crazy stat yes. So the 99.5 who lose the funds go to the 0.5. hence why if successful its lucrative.
You have only 0.5% chance of going into the 0.5% ,trading is a probabilities games , unless you are BETFAIR spread earner.
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