tradesmart
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Yup – the futs seem to be telling us there is going to be a ‘post holiday/turkey fuelled rally’ today 
, but I’d be surprised if there was any serious attempt to break out of the consolidation range this week as there are plenty of dollar/oil/data challenges culminating in the infamous and important NF payrolls numbers on Friday…..
But I have been surprised before……
However, the overall tone remains very bullish, and the longer timescale charts are signalling the possibility of a rally into the 11000’s….the 4 hr chart shows plenty of ‘growing room’ on RSI/CCI…..
And some Wall Street professionals have noticed the target….
Edit 21.20 – still nicely within the channel and a phenomenal 260 ish point trading range today…! – Very likely that we’ll see a big triangle developing as shown, until data later in the week promotes a breakout (10min chart attached)
, but I’d be surprised if there was any serious attempt to break out of the consolidation range this week as there are plenty of dollar/oil/data challenges culminating in the infamous and important NF payrolls numbers on Friday…..But I have been surprised before……
However, the overall tone remains very bullish, and the longer timescale charts are signalling the possibility of a rally into the 11000’s….the 4 hr chart shows plenty of ‘growing room’ on RSI/CCI…..
And some Wall Street professionals have noticed the target….
Edit 21.20 – still nicely within the channel and a phenomenal 260 ish point trading range today…! – Very likely that we’ll see a big triangle developing as shown, until data later in the week promotes a breakout (10min chart attached)
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MON 29 NOV
10:33 ENTER short at 10527 (ema-10529, sl-10549). This is the first PB to ema. The earlier crossing of the ema seemed very strong, so I didn’t consider it to be a 'pullback'.
11:19 EXIT at 10443 for a gain of 84 pts!! I might be jumping the gun by getting out here and maybe it has further to go, but it has fallen fast and I don’t want to risk losing these points.
14:16 ENTER at 10465 (ema-10462, sl-10442). Looks like my exit on the last trade was a good move. I am going long here as it is bouncing off the ema.
14:43 EXIT at 10511 for a gain of 46 pts. Ok, I’m not exactly following the rules here....the DOW is still well above the ema and I guess I should stick with it, but 46 points is 46 points!
And now I think I will call it a day.
Two trades (84 + 46 = 130 points). As usual, this excludes commission / spread costs. If only it was always this good.....and if only I hadn’t been just paper-trading !
Hope the rest of you had a good day.
Debs
10:33 ENTER short at 10527 (ema-10529, sl-10549). This is the first PB to ema. The earlier crossing of the ema seemed very strong, so I didn’t consider it to be a 'pullback'.
11:19 EXIT at 10443 for a gain of 84 pts!! I might be jumping the gun by getting out here and maybe it has further to go, but it has fallen fast and I don’t want to risk losing these points.
14:16 ENTER at 10465 (ema-10462, sl-10442). Looks like my exit on the last trade was a good move. I am going long here as it is bouncing off the ema.
14:43 EXIT at 10511 for a gain of 46 pts. Ok, I’m not exactly following the rules here....the DOW is still well above the ema and I guess I should stick with it, but 46 points is 46 points!
And now I think I will call it a day.
Two trades (84 + 46 = 130 points). As usual, this excludes commission / spread costs. If only it was always this good.....and if only I hadn’t been just paper-trading !
Hope the rest of you had a good day.
Debs
TraderTony
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Monday 29th November 2004
This should have been a 'fill yer boots' day and I completely blew it...
It has only been four days, but I feel as if I haven't traded for an awfully long time. I've got everything set up ready, but I feel as if I must have forgotten something. I'm not comfortable for some reason. Wierd.
Despite a few decent opportunities to enter, I did not enter the counter trend move once the opening gap broke down.
10:08 1) S 10531. Moved nicely then ugly reversal bar.
10:15 EXIT: +1. Panicked as it moved sharply back up and osciallated around entry.
Of course, it then went straight down again. Not a very convincing start to the new week here.
10:42: Missed fill on short at bar close. Tried to use a limit order but it was moving too fast. Looks like I would have probably exited at break even any way.
So, we've had a 60+ point down move to close the gap and I've managed a 1 point profit to make me break even after commission. Rubbish. Market has now moved from an open above Friday's high to below Friday's low. I think that is pretty bearish.
And down it continues. What am I doing? I just cannot get into the trades today. There has been no shortage of perfectly good entries (four to be precise by my rules) but I've second guessed and/or just plain bottled out of them. Stupid. Now the down move is over 120 points - one of the best, cleanest moves I can remember seeing in weeks. Unforgiveable.
11:38 2) L 10431. Trying a quick CT for 10 on big PD. Hit +8 then all the way back. Great stuff today.
11:43 EXIT: +1.
11:48 3) L 10431. Another bash at the quick CT.
11:53 EXIT: +10. Got one at last!
13:37 4) L 10474. Trying a trend trade to the long side. Small follow through then pulls back.
13:40 EXIT: b/e. Out too soon. How crazy was that? I'm too nervous now - desperate not to end what should have been such a wonderful day with a loss! If I'd just left the stop under the swing low I would have bagged a nice profit on this one. If only, if only.
Then I missed the move back up. I hovered on the button at 10481 (14:32) on the second pull back up off the 100 ema and I passed again. What a complete plonker. But what an amazing market today.
15:00 I wonder if we will get one more leg up in the last hour to new highs? That would be extraordinary. Stuck at the pivot at 520 right now. Nope - looks like it's going lower instead. Or not!
+12 from 4
+8 for the day after commissions
+292 for November so far (15 days of trading so far)
This should have been a 'fill yer boots' day and I completely blew it...
It has only been four days, but I feel as if I haven't traded for an awfully long time. I've got everything set up ready, but I feel as if I must have forgotten something. I'm not comfortable for some reason. Wierd.
Despite a few decent opportunities to enter, I did not enter the counter trend move once the opening gap broke down.
10:08 1) S 10531. Moved nicely then ugly reversal bar.
10:15 EXIT: +1. Panicked as it moved sharply back up and osciallated around entry.
Of course, it then went straight down again. Not a very convincing start to the new week here.
10:42: Missed fill on short at bar close. Tried to use a limit order but it was moving too fast. Looks like I would have probably exited at break even any way.
So, we've had a 60+ point down move to close the gap and I've managed a 1 point profit to make me break even after commission. Rubbish. Market has now moved from an open above Friday's high to below Friday's low. I think that is pretty bearish.
And down it continues. What am I doing? I just cannot get into the trades today. There has been no shortage of perfectly good entries (four to be precise by my rules) but I've second guessed and/or just plain bottled out of them. Stupid. Now the down move is over 120 points - one of the best, cleanest moves I can remember seeing in weeks. Unforgiveable.
11:38 2) L 10431. Trying a quick CT for 10 on big PD. Hit +8 then all the way back. Great stuff today.
11:43 EXIT: +1.
11:48 3) L 10431. Another bash at the quick CT.
11:53 EXIT: +10. Got one at last!
13:37 4) L 10474. Trying a trend trade to the long side. Small follow through then pulls back.
13:40 EXIT: b/e. Out too soon. How crazy was that? I'm too nervous now - desperate not to end what should have been such a wonderful day with a loss! If I'd just left the stop under the swing low I would have bagged a nice profit on this one. If only, if only.
Then I missed the move back up. I hovered on the button at 10481 (14:32) on the second pull back up off the 100 ema and I passed again. What a complete plonker. But what an amazing market today.
15:00 I wonder if we will get one more leg up in the last hour to new highs? That would be extraordinary. Stuck at the pivot at 520 right now. Nope - looks like it's going lower instead. Or not!
+12 from 4
+8 for the day after commissions
+292 for November so far (15 days of trading so far)
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TraderTony
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Great day if you got "in synch". Getting off to a good start with a gamble short on the open ND would have been sweet. Worth a shot as it tried to break out of recent highs. I guess you could have been fooled by the pre market rise..... but always better to risk a short rather than a long.... Not long to wait for the first target, the bear flag pointing to 485 and with the pullbacks failing to break the 100MA, giving confidence, finally falling through the floor to the PD at 420.That should have been an easy 100+. Getting on the long was a bit trickier, but a check on ES Vol. should have helped with all sellers gone by the third low....A gamble as 432 went, perhaps? If not , then as the 100MA broke with a tiny pullback should have been more persuasive.Surprise of the day was the (relatively) small pullback- only 18 points and with such volatility, I would have expected more....30 or so. But it didn't happen. Bulls rule , obviously. Then an out at T2.... but why? Easy to get caught trying for more and I can understand that- taking an easy ton + makes you feel invincible. Hard call when there is little in the way of clues to help you close.
230 points or so range today. Nice if you can a decent slice of it.
230 points or so range today. Nice if you can a decent slice of it.
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TraderTony
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Excellent result Debs - if you can keep limiting the losing days to small losses as you did last week then days like this will do wonders for your account. Well done for sticking to the plan.
CM, indeed I was fooled for it to go up in the first 10 mins, I have had this syndrome for quite some time but am gettting better at relieving from it early enough, therefore quickly cut my 30 point loss and reversed as I saw that bear flag after that it was just hold and trail the baby all the way down out @ 10417 , 80 odd points then again bullish from the three ma crossover confirmed trend @ 10445 exit @ 10500. Didn't enter any further trades as only half hour left till close.
What a field day started with loss ended up in black , Thank you Mr Dow..total 100 points inclusive of the loss. . I 'm at work this week apologize for posting chart in PDF format.
All the best to all for today.
What a field day started with loss ended up in black , Thank you Mr Dow..total 100 points inclusive of the loss.
. I 'm at work this week apologize for posting chart in PDF format. All the best to all for today.
There is always something to learn in this game. I entered my short yesterday based on the PB to the ema, but both CM and Sal have pointed out a 'bear flag' which confirms the entry, which I never even noticed !
Tony: thanks for the encouragement. I hope I can get a few days like this when I start trading for real.
Sal: Well done on your results...I like your chart. I was interested to see how helpful the 3 moving averages are.
JO: ND (negative divergence) and PD (positive divergence) occur when the price and the indicator are heading in different directions. For example, a ND is where the price has moved higher, but the RSI or CCI is sloping downwards, indicating that price is weakening.
You can see these highlighted on CMs charts. A 30min PD refers to a divergence that has continued over a 30 minute period. A 3 peak ND refers to where the price has made 3 higher highs, but the indicator, over the same period has made 3 lower lows.
(I'm sure there is a much better definition than this. I hope my attempt to help hasn't confused you more. For a better explanation, you could check out the definition in any TA (tech analysis) book.)
regds, D.
Tony: thanks for the encouragement. I hope I can get a few days like this when I start trading for real.
Sal: Well done on your results...I like your chart. I was interested to see how helpful the 3 moving averages are.
JO: ND (negative divergence) and PD (positive divergence) occur when the price and the indicator are heading in different directions. For example, a ND is where the price has moved higher, but the RSI or CCI is sloping downwards, indicating that price is weakening.
You can see these highlighted on CMs charts. A 30min PD refers to a divergence that has continued over a 30 minute period. A 3 peak ND refers to where the price has made 3 higher highs, but the indicator, over the same period has made 3 lower lows.
(I'm sure there is a much better definition than this. I hope my attempt to help hasn't confused you more. For a better explanation, you could check out the definition in any TA (tech analysis) book.)
regds, D.
Spot on Debs about the divergences. Save me a reply. I'll just mention for JO that the minimum time of 25 mins isrequired for a 3 pk ND or PD to indicate a true reversal . So a 3 pk divergence over 20mins is a gamble....... but willl ofter result in at least a minor reversal. Tricky game with lots of rules of thumb and plenty of exceptions and failures.....
tradesmart
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Never a truer word CM............
The futs surprisingly keen to develop the triangle that started yesterday with the market hours ‘round trip and dip’ providing the outline geometry….
But as highlighted yesterday, the futs are a poor indicator of how the cash will trade, and data released at 13.30/15.00 will likely set the scene for today’s market……
Also the last trading day of the month can produce a volatile session with some portfolio tidying going on……
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addictedtotradin
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How do you read the chart you posted?
addictedtotradin
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I guess I am dense. I realize that by clicking on it you can it see it enlarged. I am asking how do you interpret what you see. What are you looking for on the chart? What does it say about today's dow movement (if anything)?
addictedtotradin said:
Addictedtotradin: I'm getting bored watching my screen, so I thought I'd have a go at answering your query.
CMs chart is an analysis of potential signs that might have been observed during the day that has been. It doesn't necessarily tell you what the Dow movement for the next day will be. Although, he often makes comments based on the 10 min chart to try and assess what movements might happen in the near future.
What he is looking for on the chart are technical signals, such as, support and resistance lines, trend line breaks, divergences and chart patterns that may give a clue for potential target areas etc. To get familiar with these things, you need to learn about 'technical analysis'.
I find his daily comments extremely helpful at pointing out things that I often don't manage to spot. Hope this helps.
(CM: Please correct me if I have got the above wrong. You know what women are like - we just love to butt in and do all the talking. Not being very knowledgeable on the subject under discussion is of minor importance to us - the main thing is that we get the chance to give our opinions).
oh well....back to screen-watching......D.