Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

This is a discussion on Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures?? within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by MartinC-J I have been paper trading the FTSE Futures for over a year now, with occasional trades ...

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Old Mar 24, 2011, 7:47pm   #25
 
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Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

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Originally Posted by MartinC-J View Post
I have been paper trading the FTSE Futures for over a year now, with occasional trades live. I would like to find other FTSE Futures Traders and compare notes.

I am consistently profitable on the Sim, averaging £400 per day allowing for commissions, but to achieve this I am doing 30+ trades per day. I trade one contract only, but add more if a trend continues. My average winner is £35 and my average loser is £20. My win/loss ratio is roughly 60% winners, 40% losers.

I am a very short term trader with most trades lasting 2 to 9 minutes.

My price targets are 6 to 10 points, depending on the price action.

My stops are usually 4.5 points if entered on a limit order, or 5 pts if on a stop order.

I use direct market access trading using the Open ECry platform. You get filled at the bid or the ask, and there is no spread to pay. Most people in the UK seem to use spreadbetting to trade the FTSE cash. They pay a minimum of 0.5 points per side in spread, which costs them £10 per trade, which makes it much harder to make a profit when you are scalping. My fees are £1.81 per trade.

As for strategy, I trade reversals, continuations, pullbacks and breakouts.

With the FTSE, a 2 point move above or below the previous 5 minute candle is significant enough to signal a change of trend most of the time.

I use support and resistance from the 60 minute and daily charts, and watch the 5 min, 1 min and 50 volume charts all the time.

As soon as a reversal is in, I look for retracements to the 38%, 50% and 61.8% levels.

I don't use pivots, but I make a rough note of where they are. They work better for swing trades, and are less accurate for scalping.

A 2 point move away from a S/R or fib level is enough for me to consider a change of trend.

I use the 5 min chart to monitor trends and the 1 minute chart to time my entries.

I watch how price action moves between upper, middle and lower boly bands on the 5 min chart, to decide my bias. This mid line is critical. Below mid bb, take short entries only. Above mid bb, take longs only, unless it bounces off a strong level. Importantly, I use an 8 period setting for bolys on the 5 min chart.

Pullbacks to the 5 EMA on the 5 min chart are good entries for a steady trending market.
Pullbacks to the 5 EMA on the 1 min chart are good entries in rapidly falling/rising markets.

I trade from 8am to 11am usually, and 2:30pm to 4:15pm, UK time. In the morning, I watch the ES and FESX for confirmation of moves by the FTSE. In the afternoon, I watch the ES for trend but trade the FTSE depending on what happens with the ES.

I am trying to reduce the number of trades I take, and cherry pick which trades to take. I also and trying to run my trades longer, but when I get 10 points up I usually close and bank the profit.

I am interested to see how many others scalp the FTSE futures like me, and if they are comfortable taking so many trades in a day. Also what set ups do they use that are successful.
Martin C-J

I am doing like you but a whole lot diffrently. I started very humbly with zero confidence in what I was doing about 3 months ago and now I have even quit my accounting job and doing this full time.

To be honest, I think I am doing well. Though my method is a hell lot different from yours. The good thing about my method is that its ZERO LOSS.

To cut a long story short- I do my FTSE100 trades in BETFAIR (these are 20mins FINANCIALS). You will find that its much easier if you download and use the BETTING ASSISTANT(Gruss). This might sound like gambling but am not gambling but making profits EVERY 20 minutes on Betfair Financials. My personal finances are now excellent as a result.

All you do is register with Betfair and download the BA(its only £6/month), and start trading.

Then-log-on to the BA and go to Financials - FTSE-20 minutes.

1) You then bring up the (20mins) just before it goes IN-PLAY, noting the level of the FTSE100 at the bigining of that 20mins. (whether its 5780,5560 or what ever it was just before the start of the 20minutes. These run from 9am to 4pm UK time.

2) Wait for any(whether down or up) to reach its MINIMUM-say @1.20(LAY). Then you take that twice (LAY) at say - one as 1.20@£2 and and the other as 1.20@ £100. NOW NOTE that you only do this when the odds START moving UPWARDS.(CRUCIAL)

3) To safeguard yourself -Place a BACK as 1.20@£102 and leave it UNMATCHED as the odds drift upwards. (this is for just in case the market turns against you.If it does-this CONTRAs your original entries.
Suppose the odds reach 100, you then ClOSE the deal by BACKING as 100@£2. This GREENSUP on both sides at £100 each and at end of the 20 minutes, your account inreases by £100. Then quickly cancel the BACK(security) of 1.20@£102 before it gets matched.

You do this 21 times per day and end of day you bank £2 100 or even more depending on your stakes. The main thing here is you LOSE NO PENNY at all and you make profits every 20 minutes. Sometimes out of the 21 events you might make 12 or more. To me this is good money without having to analyse this and that or lose.

I recently bought a brand new car using this method.
Am sure you can find my email on this forum-hook me up-maybe we can share more about this.

Well I had tried what you are doing before but it gave me so much pressure. I hope this might help.

Cheers

Last edited by teamwk; Mar 24, 2011 at 8:20pm. Reason: just corrections
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Old Mar 25, 2011, 1:08pm   #26
Joined Jul 2004
Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

MartinC-J started this thread Point no 1on the chart is the opening trade of the day, and it was the gap trade. It was clear most people were looking to close the gap from last night, which was at 5855, which it duly did after the first five minutes.

And after that, it went in to a general drift down to the nine o'clock German Ifo business number (point2). You could have traded it, but it was a slow slog all the way down to nine o'clock, and really, it didn't move a whole lot maybe 10 points. Then right after nine o'clock when the data came out, it was good data, but it didn't set the market on fire. I did go long at five past nine, and luckily caught the spike up (point 3). Now usually a spike like that gets retraced, but it didn't go back up immediately. In fact, it tried one more time to test the lows. It wasn't quite sure what to do with itself.

Point 4 is the candle that tells you the next direction. It tried twice to break the lows, but for me it needed to do that by two clear points. The low of the day at that moment was 5847.5. So I needed to see it print 5845.5 to trigger an entry. It never made it. At 9:20am we got a stong 8 point move up on the 1 minute cahrt, and this up move was confirmed 8 minutes later with a break above 54.0. My short term target was the previous mini high at 60.5 and then on to the high of the morning at 74.5.

At point 5 we had a small bounce off the 60 level (first target), then a continuation of the move up. I went long again at 61.0 at 9:47, which was 2 points above the lowest high of the preceding 1 minute candles. I like to see 2 point moves above prior highs (or lows in downtrends) to trigger my trend continuation entries.

After that it was fairly quickly onto my target at 74.5 and point 6 on the chart. This last candle being the longest of the entire move gives you an idea that this may be the end of the uptrend. The next two five minute candles showed no follow through of the uptrend so it was back down to the middle bolinger band for a bounce.

The bounce did not happen. When the candle closed at 10:20am (point 7) it was clear this was going to head back down again, to somwhere near the lower bolinger band at 62. I was short at 70.5 and closed a little too early at 64.5. I ticked over £300 for the morning, which is always a nice mental target to reach, so I was happy to call it quits. It's a sunny day, and a friday.

ps Since I typed this it is clear that the lower boly did not hold, which then should have given me a target of the lows of the day, which I see it hit and continued lower even.
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Old Mar 25, 2011, 1:11pm   #27
Joined Jul 2004
Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

MartinC-J started this thread teamwk - thank you for your post I will have a look at it over the next few days and let you know what I think when I have a moment. I've never looked at financial betting before.
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Old Mar 29, 2011, 2:05pm   #28
Joined Jul 2004
Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

MartinC-J started this thread Some observations from todays open:

Firstly, last night the US market sold off strongly in the last half hour. That increased the possibility of a sell off this morning, it was just a question of when and how to catch it.

Overnight the S&P 500 future regained a lot of the fall but didn't quite get back to where it was before the fall. The FTSE opened with a 13 point drop and then tried to go up, but it stalled. The 8:10am, 8:15am, and 8:20am candles struggled to break 5874.0 and could not get above the high of the open, one point higher at 5875.0.

At 8:22am, I got a 2 point break below the low of the prior 1 minute candle, which was enough to signal a double top, and I entered short at 5870.0. My first target was the low of the open, which was 5861.0, and then after that I hoped it would close the gap from last night at 5849.0.

You need to be brave and hold out for these targets. The market is telling you it did not want to go up. It tried several times in the first 20 minutes to make new highs, and it didn't. So the market then needs to test the downside.

On the 5 minute chart the 8:40am and 8:45am candles had sharp pullbacks, and for a moment it looked like there was a battle between sellers and buyers. I usually sell any pullback to the mid boly band on the one minte chart, but I confess I sat out the second pullback at 8:48am. I also had a weak support level at 5855.5 that made me exercise a little caution. But for the brave (not me in this case) and experienced (not me again) who held on, the overnight gap was duly closed at 9:00am.

Then after we got what I call the gap closer's bounce. It retraced 38% and made it to the mid boly band on the 5 min chart. At that point it could go anywhere, and it paid to see where the next 5 min candle would go. The 9:05am candle closed 0.5 points above the middle boly band at 5858.5, and the next candle was a continuation down. It was clear it would test the low at 5846.5 next, but what you don't know is how far below the lows it is going to go. The UK GDP data at 9:30am was going to limit the time for a big push down, so it ground to a halt just prior to the data reaching a low of 5842.5 at 9:28am. I couldn't see any specific support level that determined this. It just ran out time to do anything more.

The GDP data was no big surprise, but the market went on a rally anyway. Maybe in relief that it wasn't worse than expected. I jumped onto the rally a little late, but when it crossed the mid boly band on the 5 min chart, it was clear a bounce was happening. I enetered long at 5852.0, but closed at the 50% retracement when it ran out of steam just shy of the 61.8% retracement.

Now for those who don't use Fib nos, you miss out on a lot. Here was a clear 61.8% retracement. It stopped right on the nose at 5862.5, and when it failed to break it again at 9:55am, the odds were it would sell off, either back to the 23.6% level or back to the low of the day at 5846.5.

It made a new low at 10:35am, and for me this now makes it a one way day, and that any retracements to the 23.6% level should be sold. You got three opportunites to short it at the 23.6% level before you would have been stopped out on the fourth trade. By then it was 12:50pm and getting close to the US influence so you should be probably having your cheese and pickle sandwich by then.
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tues-29th-march-2011-8-22am-1-min-chart.jpg   tues-29th-march-2011-one-way-day-5-min-chart.jpg   tues-29th-march-2011-10-48am-5-min-chart.jpg  

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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:07pm   #29
Joined Jul 2004
Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

MartinC-J started this thread Wednesday mornings ahead of the ADP Non Farms at 1:15pm tend to offer flat wide range days. In other words they tend to cycle between highs and lows in a flat range of about 30 points.

Today started with a big gap up, that the market tried to fill from the open. It failed. The gap was about 30 points which is a big gap to fill. And when it failed on the second attempt at around 9:30am, you can see the gap traders closing shortly afterwards.

We had two triangle breakouts. One up at 8:30am, the second down at 9:18am.

Targets are always the high/low of the first 10 minutes and the overnight gap. Yesterdays big move up in the afternoon, has probably left the market pausing for breath today, hence the smallish range of about 20 points.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 4:53pm   #30
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Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

MartinC-J started this thread One other thing happened this afternoon. Usually the FTSE follows the ES almost exactly in afternoon trading. However, today around 15:40, there was clearly manipulation of the FTSE. The FTSE went down while the ES went up. Somebody wanted it to close at lows, possibly even to fill the gap from overnight. They got it down to 5899.5 at 16:29. That's within 1.5 points of last nights close.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 10:03pm   #31
 
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Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

there are a lot of gap traders around these days

but in such a small time frame you will often find differences between SPX and ES as well
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 8:20am   #32
 
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Re: Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

more ...

while futs filled its gap ftse cash did not fill its gap
so that leaves open the potential for an island reversal
to catch short termers offside
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