Day Trading & Forex Forum

dcraig1

A bit of a straw man, methinks. There are lots of time series you can derive aside from things like stochs, RSI and MAs of various types.

Chart of today's DAX. See how DAX swings from MP POC to MP LVA. Look at the histogram type plot which is a smoothed (fast EMA) of the count of contracts traded at the ask minus contracts at the BID (market delta). See how buying pressure drops off dramatically at the double top. And look at the market delta at the retest of the LVA. Tell me with a straight face that this is not useful.

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new_trader

It is not useful. All indicators are 'experts' in hindsight

Tell us with a straight face, did you trade it and make money?

The question is, what happens next!!??

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N.B: Most of my views, advice and opinions are based on short-term trading.
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Joey25

I'm with dcraig1. Market participants do remember the past and act accordingly.

I'm approaching midlife so perhaps that is why I find MP appealing, however it is the most reliable approach I have found.

If you're connecting swing highs with straight lines or drawing horizontal lines along clusters of candle bodies, then I'm afraid you are also using an indicator of sorts.

I trade options simply from the probability density function implied by the prices - that is completely forward looking and trading without indicators.

dcraig1

Of course they do. Perception of "value" is based on past price as well as fundamental valuations and whatever other magic one can come up with.

Indeed it would be a very strange market that did not look at past price.

dcraig1

Hmmmmm ..... DAX has moved on a bit, bounced within a whisker of yesterdays LOD, moved up to VWAP/ pivot (they happen to approximately coincide), run out of buying juice (as evidenced by market delta) and failed this test.

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pips-galor888

Does this mean that all those who believe there is no point in looking to the past to "help" determine the future basically are saying the the likes of Elliot Wave theory is a load of bull-droppings?

All the books I've read on both fundamental & technical analysis say that "although the price does not remember the past, traders DO!".

Also, if the masses, and more specifically the "Big Boy" traders, are using such theories then would it not stand to reason that they are self-fulfilling prophecies?

foredog

Totally agree that there is a point in looking to the past, i do it all the time.

If price of X has hit Y three times and reversed in the past and this time it hits Y and goes through it and doesn't reverse then trade the way it's going.

No waves squiggles or hocus pocus.

At what point would the indicator tell you it's broken the S/R?

I'd imagine a few funds use some indicators but i'd hazard a guess that most "big boy" traders do not sit there worrying if the 5Ma is below 10ma and something else is red before they sell something thats crapping out.

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Paul71

If i had to choose one, mmm, probably the Frosty Jack indicator.