Good point brought up go me thinking. (2 things actually)

scose-no-doubt

Veteren member
Messages
4,630
Likes
954
Learning to trade vs. Trying to solving the market

I think that during the course of my self-learning I seem to have have lost the divisive line between these two mammoth (obv 1 more mammother than the other) feats.

Anyone else who can now trade get lost in the sea of information and lose their way? What the hell did you do?


Also, the bank stress test results out today. Where do get them or a summary of them for free?
 
Learning to trade vs. Trying to solving the market

I think that during the course of my self-learning I seem to have have lost the divisive line between these two mammoth (obv 1 more mammother than the other) feats.

Anyone else who can now trade get lost in the sea of information and lose their way? What the hell did you do?


Also, the bank stress test results out today. Where do get them or a summary of them for free?

Put in filters that you will not deviate from, no matter what. This will remove a lot of noise, reduce stress and over-trading, give you greater time to think and plan, and almost certainly improve your win ratio and so on. It will help you focus and remove the need to be juggling hundreds of factors at once.

Or just chuck out the fundies.
 
You'll be able to read the release from CEBS... I'll post some stuff, if I see anything worthwhile.
 
Put in filters that you will not deviate from, no matter what. This will remove a lot of noise, reduce stress and over-trading, give you greater time to think and plan, and almost certainly improve your win ratio and so on. It will help you focus and remove the need to be juggling hundreds of factors at once.

Or just chuck out the fundies.

Think this is what I'm after.
 
stick cnbc on if u have sky u will get the jist of the results but would ignore any comentry that goes with it from the anchors
 
familiar problem to me. you just have to know what to look at and when the info is useful. you also need to know when you have enough info to make a decision, but this also means recognizing when there isn't enough info to make a decision and just leaving it.

An example is in equities, you have a wealth of information most of it is completely indecipherable due to accounting regs and the most important stuff isn't in SEC filings. most decisions you have to make with faulty/poor/useless/irrelevant information, you ultimatly aren't going to know everything. But knowing everything doesn't mean success, you have to spot the times when you can extract the useful info and when the info is important enough to make a difference i.e trade on. Macro stuff is perhaps slightly different but the same principles apply. Its probablly better knowing a little about a lot, but theres a fine line between doing this well and being reckless.

So basically you can't know everything and if you manage risk properly you don't need to. I dunno if you were talking about fundemental decision making btw but that is what ive assumed.
 
Last edited:
Think this is what I'm after.

OK, so try this (I had what I think is a very similar problem to the one you describe).

Think about whatever fact is most important to you. To give you an example, I trade using PA. Most people think of candles and the rest, but actually in my opinion location is the most important thing. Now location is just what we call it because we approach things visually, but really a "location" is in fact just a price or a range of prices.

To my mind (again, this is just the way I see it) large round numbers have huge significance. Now, when I'm trading intraday Forex, the sine qua non is that price must be at a round number. This gives all the benefits that you're speaking about, and makes scanning charts very quick and simple (if there is no trade, about 2 or 3 minutes in each hour to watch 29 pairs). This filter keeps me out of loads of bad trades, and gives me an opportunity to save myself or at least cut my loss on the bad ones that I do take.

Then your psychology and discipline come in. If you adopt this approach, you'll doubtless see a ton of trades that work out not at big round numbers (or whatever your thing happens to be). Of course, the ones that don't won't stand out quite so much, you start deviating from the plan, and we all know where that ends. But hopefully, the mere fact of having a line in the sand should help with discipline - it gives you a clear rule that you do not break.

Look at the chart I posted on the recent gold thread. With one line and one bar you could have sold gold just below its all time high. Just that - two factors to catch gold at its peak.

Here's the pi$$er. You talk about information overload and all the rest, and we probably all know what it's like to get analysis paralysis. Go back to discipline, confidence, psychology etc. I was watching gold because 1250 is one of my big numbers, and there is a very good chance you'll get a reaction here. Up, down, we don't know yet. Some really nice PA came along telling me to go short. But I didn't because I deviated from my system. I thought "Am I trying to pick the top? Everyone knows you shouldn't do that" and all the rest of that conventional wisdom bullsh1t. Now go and have a look at gold and see the move I missed through being an a$$hole.

To some extent you can "automate" your discretionary trading, so to speak. No stress, no fuss, you see the set up and pull the trigger.

Hope this helps, but happy to try again if I've missed the point of what you're asking.
 
Not sure if it's quite what you want but FXStreet's "fundamentals" link has a lot of analysis links.

They will probably add links to the actual results as it goes along.

(Danger of info overload though, which I know you are worried about).
 
Thanks guys.

I was actually going to write a huge post about why I feel this way but 90% through it I realised I felt a bit better. Suppose sometimes just writing something down is release enough for the stress. How gay lol.

Thanks for your thoughts people. Suppose I'll just have to slog on and keep sieving through the 5hit.
 
Thanks guys.

I was actually going to write a huge post about why I feel this way but 90% through it I realised I felt a bit better. Suppose sometimes just writing something down is release enough for the stress. How gay lol.

Thanks for your thoughts people. Suppose I'll just have to slog on and keep sieving through the 5hit.


If you don't trade on news, don't read the news. If you don't trade on fundamentals, don't read the FT or Annual Reports or bank stress tests.

Just read the markets. Let the big players read the news and decide what to do and when and how strongly to do it - their actions are revealed by price movement, and if price isn't moving, its because they think the best thing to do is do nothing, and at that time so should you. But if the smart money is buying, I'd recommend being a buyer.

Of course, if you trade on fundamentals, don't read charts etc.
 
Sorry for the delay... Here's the docs from CEBS. For the record, this stress test is a complete joke, IMHO.
 

Attachments

  • CEBSPressRelease.pdf
    26.5 KB · Views: 307
  • Summaryreport.pdf
    441.4 KB · Views: 247
  • Listofbanks.pdf
    5.5 MB · Views: 238
  • QAs.pdf
    93.6 KB · Views: 286
stick cnbc on if u have sky u will get the jist of the results but would ignore any comentry that goes with it from the anchors

Yeah Erin kept spouting on about Europe having a free lunch on the Americans !

I didn't mind what she was insinuating , but, the face she was pulling, kind of a Zoolander pout, suggests she, as a yank, believes they are funding and bailing out Europe .

Again, even if they are, her face contortions come across as some sort of evil in- humanitarian B-atch ! Implying " we shouldn't help the poor, cos we're Americans "

:LOL: She needs to be put out to grass........ God help being an American, Who on earth do they think they are ?

Still, on the other hand, if they are mug enough to fund Europe as according to Erins outlook, then, cheers ya dumb mofo's keep the finance coming !

All financial journalists are W.ankers ! They just keep on guessing .........

The dow is rallying today 200 points.... ohh know it's not it's down 350...... what a big sell off, must be profit taking...... ohh no it's not, its back up 400 ....... on the back of earnings... yes, er... thats it.. ohh NOW its back down 500 points...... er, we'll take a commercial break.... stay tuned to be informed when we return...

:)
 
Last edited:
Take the cnbc commentators' babble with a grain of salt. Most of them are reading via a teleprompter and wouldn't know a stock certificate from a parking ticket.

Peter
 
Yeah pete, agree, but with all this stress test hype they tried to ramp up, fell flat on its face, you can see what they have been INSTRUCTED to say, by the way they keep repeating

ONLY 7 Banks failed the test, so thats all jolly nice and safe everyone ! All of them, ONLY 7, ONLY 7... like when does a mic jockey become an expert on reviewing the reports that have just been released ? It's all propaganda BS !

Well that's about 8% on this initial soft test ......... Notice they don't phrase it quite like that though..


uhhhhhh ! Rant over.......
 
Cheers Pete, I'm going back to watching Bloomberg, at least the bimbo's on there know how to act like one !

:)
 
I like this thread. Overanalysis brings about undue stress. In my case I program by day and trade in the evening so I find myself often saying I'm going to quit doing one or the other so I can bring balance to my life.

I've certainly got to make some changes in filtering out information and my trading times.
 
Yeah Erin kept spouting on about Europe having a free lunch on the Americans !

I didn't mind what she was insinuating , but, the face she was pulling, kind of a Zoolander pout, suggests she, as a yank, believes they are funding and bailing out Europe .

Again, even if they are, her face contortions come across as some sort of evil in- humanitarian B-atch ! Implying " we shouldn't help the poor, cos we're Americans "

:LOL: She needs to be put out to grass........ God help being an American, Who on earth do they think they are ?


:)

Oi! Erin can pout all she likes, the little honey..:D
 
Top