Gold

I honestly can't believe what I'm seeing here. Does nobody else think this has gone beyond what could be attributed to flight to safety?

I think its still early days.
There's plenty more of the public left who haven't yet flown to gold for safety.

To beat the 1980's high if you adjusted for inflation gold would have to pass $2200.

The goldbugs over here are having orgasms.

Rossini said:

To beat the 1980's high if you adjusted for inflation gold would have to pass $2200.

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Still risky as f if you ask me.

Then again I've been waiting for it to pop since september.

Who is in it?

Not that im a buyer of gold, but risk can be limited and defined. I still don't see gold as any more risky to trade now than it was when it was at any other price. It may pop it may not, so long as you have taken measures to protect yourself either way, who cares??

You don't think gold is riskier here as a buy and hold?

"If not Gold what else is there to buy", Mr Doom- Faber has come out with that phrase now, but I've been thinking it for the last 3 years. (Of course you may say silver, and why not).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-i-buy-gold-i-dont-know-what-else-buy

That's not what I'm saying. Your talking about buying to hold, and I'm taking about trading.

When someone buys and holds at a higher price there is obviously a greater potential monetary loss (but not necessarily risk) But as a vehicle to trade it is no more risky now than is was 6 or 12 months ago.

gold is pure bubble territory, just look at the kind of morons who big it up so much. sooner or later, it will implode big time. not to say it couldnt still go up a lot more..but it will colapse, no doubt about it. And anyone who claims it wont is just a classic bubble victim.

I agree, goldbugs have been spreading paranoia about fiat currency forever. Have a look at "Irrational Exuberance" by Robert Shiller. The flight to gold is based on a story about rampant inflation around the corner, the unreliability of fiat currency and large government debt. These stories have come and gone throughout the decades, however for the past few years they've really gripped the imagination of a portion of investors, cultivated by a number of insiders (e.g. those who sell/store gold bullion etc.). The thing that really makes it look 'bubbly' is its continuing inexorable rise in spite of increasing value in the US dollar and a dramatic recovery in stock markets (and less dramatic recovery in jobs etc). I'm pretty bearish in the medium term on the economy but seeing its rise last year accompanied by the continuing gold run has left me feeling there is more speculative enthusiasm for gold rather than rational investment. In any case what are people going to do with their lumps of gold in hyperinflation, cut a bit off and buy a loaf of bread? The real value of gold is in terms of what it can buy in terms of goods, not US dollars. In a time of crisis real protection will be real assets - land, food production means etc, not a pretty metal whose value has soared and plummeted with investor sentiment over the years.

I think people are really afraid to hold any type of currency. They figure that any day they could wake up and the world is exploding, currencies are worth nothing, etc. The only thing left of value at that point would be gold. It's more of an apocalypse hedge than anything else; and therefore, I think it is much too high at this price.

glyder said:

"If not Gold what else is there to buy", Mr Doom- Faber has come out with that phrase now, but I've been thinking it for the last 3 years. (Of course you may say silver, and why not).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-i-buy-gold-i-dont-know-what-else-buy

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Scratch a goldbug, and you will find a silver bug underneath

If Dr Doom Faber is so gloomy on the world economy he might want to also be stocking up on candles and tinned food as well as gold.
And perhaps an allotment or even better a farm.
I'd suggest coal and firewod but I think he lives in Thailand so maybe not required.

glyder said:

If Dr Doom Faber is so gloomy on the world economy he might want to also be stocking up on candles and tinned food as well as gold.
And perhaps an allotment or even better a farm.
I'd suggest coal and firewod but I think he lives in Thailand so maybe not required.

Click to expand...

He's quite bullish on Asia, I believe.

N Rothschild said:

gold is pure bubble territory, just look at the kind of morons who big it up so much. sooner or later, it will implode big time. not to say it couldnt still go up a lot more..but it will colapse, no doubt about it. And anyone who claims it wont is just a classic bubble victim.

Click to expand...

I have modified my views on gold considerably since we used to have arguments about this in other threads, so I am not trying to start a new argument here. But what, in your opinion, could be the trigger for an implosion?

I think some people say it could be a stock market crash, although that might also work the other way.

Soros is famous for his "ultimate bubble" quote, but he did go on to say something like "...if there is a bubble, lead me to it", by which I think he meant no problems in taking advantage of a bubble, without being sucked into it. He is canny enough not to be taken in and resourceful enough to be able to hold on for as long as necessary for the market to turn in his direction, which most of is aren't.

Will this is the problem, impossible to time when it will blow its lid. i think it will be soon though

It's not making all times highs every week so I don't think we're near an implosion yet. I would think we need to see a 2 or 3 day moon shoot for about +$100 or so. Thats a fair signal that the end is near. As with anything though trying to pick the top could end up disastrous. There's plenty of downside to catch when it begins.


Peter

If you remember what happened with the Crude bubble, it came to the point where you could pretty much trade anything off the action in Oil. That's the point to start getting cautious IMO.

Yes its definitely still tradable for profit and no signs of a blowoff yet. It will need a catalysing story and opinion to become widespread which is when it'll go vertical. When you hear the checkout girls at the supermarket (or similar) saying they're buying gold, close your position.