Sunday Euro open. gap or not to gap

oiltanker

oiltanker

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will euro gap on the open and if so which way?

assuming no greek news comes out and as today is green candle i'll say small gap up.
 
Absent any news on Greece I think euro will open near or slightly higher than today's close. I would think no news is unlikely and any news is more likely to be euro negative, so open much lower than today's close.

Either way, I'm not a weekend gambler! All flat here.

'til then...

Peter
 
This Greek sh-t has been going on for a couple of months now, and they still haven't received a penny (pfennig??). There's another meeting this weekend, I reckon they'll announce something juicy and there will be a HUGE gap higher. Having said that, I'm short. Who the f-ck knows..
 
Long gold is the hedge for everything right now, forget eur/usd, it's been in a range since mid feb.. commodities move more in an hour than eur/usd does in a month.
 
Who is left to sell euros? Surely anyone who wanted to sell would be short by now, and let's be honest, how much worse can the news get? Maybe in a month the focus will shift to some of the indebted "countries" of the US, whose situation is as if not more precarious than Greece.

I'm short eur/usd and have been for many weeks as an intermediate trend trade, but it's been a frustrating position to have on. I looked back at the last mega-trend in eur/usd, from 0.85 to 1.60 - that took about 8 years so about 3-4 pips a business day of NET movement (if that makes sense). In other words, I do believe we can see 1.10-1.20 in eur/usd, but it might take a while, with the occasional sharp rallies.

150 pip gap higher open on Monday.
 
Gap down, 20 pips. Followed by upwards then consolidation. I would be surprised if sterling had a big downweek then propped up on the Friday...and if not Friday then a big gap down on Monday for sterling then up all the following week.
 
Didn't really do much at all comapred to the news out. I think this has to be negative for now, maybe not long term but at least for a few days.

Peter
 
wackypete2 said:
Didn't really do much at all comapred to the news out. I think this has to be negative for now, maybe not long term but at least for a few days.

Peter
Click to expand...



The market is telling us everything we need to know I think. Greece is f*cked, and this aid package is a sticking plaster job which merely buys a bit of time.

Portugal and Spain next. Italy should be ok but if not it starts getting serious there.

Euro will have a twenty handle shortly. Longer term, we wil see 1.20 this year.

All in my humble opinion only of course.
 
BY the way, in case anyone cares I'm perfect on my two eur trades this morning(not posted)...2 trades, 2 losers, 100% loss ratio.
Where's my prize?

Peter
 
It's tough to think of any positive reasons for wanting to be long euro right now, I think we'll see it down at 1.25 by the end of the month.
 
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