Deal or No Deal

This is a discussion on Deal or No Deal within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; It's a good example re that Lady given in your post...It's amazing how little the general public know about the ...

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Old Mar 15, 2010, 5:13pm   #11
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Joined Jan 2003
Re: Deal or No Deal

It's a good example re that Lady given in your post...It's amazing how little the general public know about the laws of that example saw someone gamble an unrealised profit of £20k on an outcome that was less than 50% probable...I didn't see the show but assuming she had the 250k box and a few minor ones left, say 4 boxes left in total, and a £20k offer from the banker, she did not realise that the most probable outcome was that she would lose the 250k box (ie 3 chances in 4 of losing it, only 1 chance in 4 of keeping it/actually having it) and that would result in a lower offer than the one she currently had. In other word she only had a 25% chance of retaining or getting a better offer than the oen she currently had, but a 75% chance of ending up with a worse offer....

The greed thing definately kicks in probably enhanced by the bravado they experiennce as a result of being urged on by the audience who akin to Death Race 2000 and unrealised by the player aren't actually motivated to see a big win for the player but for a dissapointment for the player, as their reward - it being twice as entertaining and far more probable. This bravado results in a death or glory approach by most players as they get to the business end of the game.

Originally Posted by sangfroidFX View Post
I was watching Deal or No Deal this morning and wondered.... as traders, if you'd have a plan or strategy if you were to ever go on the gameshow.

The lady that was on this morning had taken out the £50,000 and the £75,000 still had the £250,000 left and was offered £20,000. She said no deal and then proceeded to take out the £250,000 with the very next box, her target before she started was £20,000 but I suspect she got greedy, saw the £250,000 and went for it. She ended up with 10p

Now, if it was me on this show, I'd like to think that having traded I'd go with a target in mind say £30,000 as my T/P, as soon as I'm offered this then deal regardless of what's left. S/L would be as soon as the two biggest went so £250,000 and £75,000 I'd take the very next offer given.

It's interesting to watch this show as you can see peoples greed on a daily basis, they always push it too far and end up with nothing like the target that they wanted, they see the £250,000 and are blinded by what if, but only a very small percentage will ever reach this target and of course it's random so the chances reduce even more, no support or resistance here! I think the people that go on this see it as a once in a lifetime, the massive sum that they can win outweighs the potential loss and end up gambling, so they are offered say £20,000, see the £250,000 still up there and are essentially gambling £20,000 to make £250,000, which invariably goes wrong.

How, as a trader would you approach this show

I can stand the despair - it's the hope I can't manage (John Cleese - Clockwork.)
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Old Mar 15, 2010, 5:53pm   #12
Joined Sep 2008
Re: Deal or No Deal

My wife tells me every week I should submit an entry video for the show. She thinks I can win over $100,000 but I have told her my strategy countless times: If the very first offer was $25,000 or more I'd take the deal and run, if not then I'd either wait until an offer is less than 1/2 of the first offer, or double the first offer to cash in.
Yeah, I'm a trader!

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