The Stock Weather Man

Hello all,

Who would like to stick their neck out and call tomorrows action on the Dow Jones (Friday 19th Feb).

I've been watching it closely and would like to point out the following.
1) For the last 2 days of trading we had an interesting support to resistance. The previous days resistance acted as the support.

2) If you take a look back at the start of the month can anyone see any similarities between this latest run starting on the 16th? Look at the volume also it could be a clue.

My conclusion? We could be looking at over a 100 point loss on the Dow this Friday.


Its not easy to stick your neck out I know. Will be interesting to know your predictions as well as your methodology.

An orthodox market view right now would be a continuation of the uptrend going into Friday as we have broken resistance but I just can't see that happening. The Dow is attempting to reach a new high as we speak yet I'm beginning to see the start of the sellers start to take control of the market. At 10350 (7pm GMT) I can see a smallish shooting star on a 5 minute chart followed by what looks to be a confirmation. Will be an interesting 2 days.

15 / 1 http://sports.betfair.com/?ci=10632026&ex=1&CID=3789017&PLA=77784235116606206

i have tried to short it but it did,t work. Check the close for some direction and remember if you go overnight to keep into acount the up swing europe might have after this here rally. i suspect the options closing out tomorrow plays a big role in this rally. Maby it is beter to wait still. But who knows i might have punt if it looks promising before close. Good luck.

ian23 said:

i have tried to short it but it did,t work. Check the close for some direction and remember if you go overnight to keep into acount the up swing europe might have after this here rally. i suspect the options closing out tomorrow plays a big role in this rally. Maby it is beter to wait still. But who knows i might have punt if it looks promising before close. Good luck.

Click to expand...

Shorted it just before the close. A brave move if there was ever one some may say foolish but lets see how we pan out.

Hi guys.
You may be right this time and we're due for a resumption of the downtrend. But aren't you basically saying, 'Its time to short because the price is high and can't go any higher'?
This doesn't seem to be an objective sustainable strategy, so I have to ask, surely are there more TA factors that are driving your forecast that you haven't posted?

USD up on Fed comment.
Logical for Dow to open lower
10330?

tomorton said:

Hi guys.
You may be right this time and we're due for a resumption of the downtrend. But aren't you basically saying, 'Its time to short because the price is high and can't go any higher'?
This doesn't seem to be an objective sustainable strategy, so I have to ask, surely are there more TA factors that are driving your forecast that you haven't posted?

Click to expand...

Yes! I look for recent patterns and volume please read again. Although I'm not a literary genius and have troubles trying to express myself at times. I saw a similar pattern at the start of this month (also similar volume). The market already coughed up over 100 points after trading..however it could rinse and repeat for the benefit of you chaps.

I should also suggest that if you drew trend lines from this amazing bull run starting from March 6th 2009 until around mid January you'd see a rising wedge that narrowed and narrowed until something had to give. It did on January the 15th. The recent drown trend first retraced back up to the 50% mark then faltered and then moved up to the 61.8 line this Friday. We can see a doji pretty much for Fridays trading although I was still able to take a 100 points from my short after hours. Monday is a key day we either move down and confirm which could be followed by quite a few heavy down days or we break through that 61 line and move back up. In conclusion Monday is key and I'm suggesting the probability looks at further down days overall.

A fair analysis and I think you're more likely right than wrong. I have some shorts running (at losses but I expect them to return to in the money soon) and a sell order lurking below recent levels. I think we'll both be making money next week.
Still, I have to be pernickerty - I submit the point of TA isn't to predict what the market will do, its to predict what you will do.

And down we go the questions is how far? 10070 ish is where I'll look at taking profits and then wait to see if we bounce. It could go down further imo.