Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

This is a discussion on Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game. within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Mr. Charts Cracking good post DT ! You've clearly been around these boards for quite a while ...

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Old Jan 25, 2010, 1:39pm   #176
 
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Joined Dec 2009
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Charts View Post
Cracking good post DT !
You've clearly been around these boards for quite a while in some other incarnation but I'm struggling to think who you might be.
Anyway, your presence is certainly uplifting the quality of t2w.
Richard
Glad you like it - I learnt a lot of it from you !

You could look at it 2 ways Richard...

1 - A pheonix rising gloriously once again from the flames.
2 - That dirty 1 pence piece you keep trying to palm off on the local newsagent but always get back in your change.

I'm comfortable with either description !
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

Humphrey B Neill - 1931
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 2:08pm   #177
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by Prawnsandwich View Post
In the first instance I'm not sure that 90% of traders use TA..where did that figure come from ?....
My specific use of it came from Gary Norden's book, already referred to, but it's one of those numbers you see from time to time, not quite as frequently as the number traders who lose. (Well, 90, 95, whatever....).
[/quote]

Im sure many are looking at fundamentals, eg earnings and many are probably not using any proper system apart from what they hear / see on Motley fool, yahoo finance CNBC etc...or are just gambling

Traders that use TA and are failing are not using it correctly..or or are not exercising money managment or probably just dont understand what it is...as as evident from this thread..

[/quote]
Yes, criticism of traders is something that Gary Nordern picks up on. People find TA doesn't work for them, but they are told that it does work, so obviously it's they who are at fault, or their psychology is all wrong - they need to be in "the zone".

Quote:

It can really be very simple....the price of a stock may be going up over a period without there being any obvious news or fundamental information in the public domain and you can use TA to work this out ...How ? By looking at a chart and seeing the price going up...
And which bit of TA is going to tell you it's about to reverse, and/or whether that reversal is a minor turnaround, or a major reverse? I know some tricks that are supposed to tell you, but how many times do they actually work out in practice?
That's the area that Gary Nordern talks about and he quotes the statistics for some of them.
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Just because it worked, it doesn't mean that it works.
Trade what you see, but make sure that what you see means what you think it means.
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 2:21pm   #178
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by Prawnsandwich View Post
Ah jaysus your missing the point here...

You dont have to look very far for examples of very effective TA.....this site - Trader Dante, Claudia, Mr Charts and others I'm sure...very simple but effective methods...so to say that TA without discretion / FA has never been proven is a nonsense ..of course there is often an element of discretion within a method, but this discretion is based on the chart / TA / method, and does not take into account FA....
Tom has said on many occasions that there is a fair amount of discretion involved in his own trading. This is why a newbie cannot just take what he perceives to be Tom's style of trading and make it work the same. I have become convinced that Tom and people who like him appear to trade an essentially technical method are using far more than TA in their own trading, essentially by virtue of their long experience and their knowledge of how the markets work together.



Quote:
Oh yeah not to forget my own personal experience....so is that proof enough for you ?
With all due respect, you have ~50 posts and you haven't put a Bio in your profile, and I don't know your trading history.
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Mike
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Still learning my trade.

Just because it worked, it doesn't mean that it works.
Trade what you see, but make sure that what you see means what you think it means.
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 2:33pm   #179
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

DionysusToast started this thread
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Originally Posted by ccclarette658 View Post
Everything is known in advance as everything is decided in advance.

.....

I hope and expect this clarifies.
Well. To be honest, it doesn't - but I've only read through it 5 times and I always sleep on anything that may require scratching under the surface.

I have looked at the dates you mentioned but without knowing what you are looking at. Nothing there jumps out at me. There are sell offs that occured on the dates you mentioned & on other dates too. On the 21st, just before 9am, again I don't see anything that ( without the benefit of the right hand side of the chart) would see me going short.

Of course - you have to be open to new ideas and so I can't dismiss what you are saying but neither can I see it.

If I were your neighbour, I'd consider popping round and asking if I could borrow a grail of sugar...
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

Humphrey B Neill - 1931
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 2:36pm   #180
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by montmorencyt2w View Post
I have become convinced that Tom and people who like him appear to trade an essentially technical method are using far more than TA in their own trading, essentially by virtue of their long experience and their knowledge of how the markets work together.
That would be my take on it too.
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

Humphrey B Neill - 1931
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 2:43pm   #181
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
Glad you like it - I learnt a lot of it from you !

You could look at it 2 ways Richard...

1 - A pheonix rising gloriously once again from the flames.
2 - That dirty 1 pence piece you keep trying to palm off on the local newsagent but always get back in your change.

I'm comfortable with either description !

I'm flattered
Having read the thread link in your signature just before open, I can't think why I was struggling to guess who you were.....it's blindingly obvious now I've read it !
Great photos you sent a couple of months back
Kind wishes,
Richard
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 2:56pm   #182
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by zupcon View Post
I'm sure thats exactly the sort of riduculous claim that Robert Pretcher might actually make. The majority contributing to this thead really do need to read some Nicholas Taleb
I've read both of his well-known books, plus a similar one by his friend Mandelbrot, and I don't quite see your point.

I don't share Prawn's rather narrow definition of Fundamental Analysis, probably because he seems to be only talking about the stock market(s), while many of us here are probably talking about the markets in general....FX, commodities, bonds, whatever.

TA is essentially the skill of charting, and of course you can use discretion about it in one sense, meaning e.g. you calculate the probabilities of a price pattern developing the way you expect, and choose to enter, or not to enter a particular trade with a particular stop level and particular exit points.

Or you can use discretion in a wider sense, taking account e.g. market sentiment, political developments, bond yields, inflation, the fact that a certain person is about to speak and what the whisper is about what he will say. I would think of all the latter as "fundamentals", with a small "f" if you like, whether or not it fits Prawn's strict definition. I actually prefer Laidi's term "Intermarket Analysis".
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Mike
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Just because it worked, it doesn't mean that it works.
Trade what you see, but make sure that what you see means what you think it means.
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