Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

This is a discussion on Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game. within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by montmorencyt2w ........Seems like there is a lot of after-the-fact justification when it does work, and/or quietly ignoring ...

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Old Jan 28, 2010, 2:50pm   #251
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by montmorencyt2w View Post
........Seems like there is a lot of after-the-fact justification when it does work, and/or quietly ignoring of when it doesn't work..........
monty

I'm not suggesting that TA "works" in an infallible way and I think the most anyone would claim is that the outcome they are looking for happens more often than not.

For me, TA merely gives me a reason to trade at points where a significant move is likely and where I will know pretty quickly that it is not to be, or whether it is not in the direction I want. At the end of the day, it's how you manage your trade that counts, not how you got into it in the first place.

good trading

jon
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Old Jan 28, 2010, 2:55pm   #252
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

you can argue that nothing works though, no? Lots of people lose money trading based off of companies fundamentals (FA)
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Old Jan 28, 2010, 3:24pm   #253
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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That's because you weren't using your discretion in the "right way" ....
Maybe if he had conducted a form of Technical Analysis of his likely success with his discretionary trades based on statistical probabilities, he would have known that the statistical probability of taking the trade was unlikely to have worked


Paul
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Old Jan 28, 2010, 5:49pm   #254
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by montmorencyt2w View Post

Seems like there is a lot of after-the-fact justification when it does work, and/or quietly ignoring of when it doesn't work.
And what's wrong with quietly ignoring it if it falls neatly into your strategy's 40% of cases where is doesn't work? Better than screaming at the screen and moving your stop ;-)
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Old Jan 28, 2010, 6:41pm   #255
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
Absolutely. I can see support in the market - it's the one just below all those other potential support areas that failed

Anyway....

Futures - infinite supply market.
Stocks - finite supply, defined by float.

Someone that hasn't brought a stock yet - doesn't have to buy.
Someone that has brought a stock already - DOES have to sell.

Can someone point me to where TA covers the impact of the above ?
Surely you're talking about potential support, i.e. based on some past data, where you think it is likely to reverse. That's fine, but as you said, you don't know which potential support will actually become realised support, because there are probably many. And looking at a chart, maybe all failed with the exception of one, which reversed strongly.

On my chart I have many potential supports, and I'd estimate 95% of the time it will turn at one of these. Which one?

Well, I think if you think about just this, for a while, you might realise something important.
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Old Jan 28, 2010, 9:34pm   #256
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by Shakone View Post
Surely you're talking about potential support, i.e. based on some past data, where you think it is likely to reverse. That's fine, but as you said, you don't know which potential support will actually become realised support, because there are probably many. And looking at a chart, maybe all failed with the exception of one, which reversed strongly.

On my chart I have many potential supports, and I'd estimate 95% of the time it will turn at one of these. Which one?

Well, I think if you think about just this, for a while, you might realise something important.
A kindred spirit! I've been saying similar to this to many who swear by S&R lines.
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Old Feb 6, 2010, 3:25pm   #257
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

best imo is to do fundamental analysis and find an economically strong trend and refine entries with TA ( say buy support/sell resistance, roughly)
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Old Feb 17, 2010, 12:00am   #258
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

This pot hasn't been stirred recently. Here is someone else who doesn't seem too enamoured of many of the conventional methods of analysis that traders use:

http://tuckerreport.com/articles/tra...d-what-doesnt/

Not that he rejects all TA; rather he puts it into perspective.

The same author on Market Profile:

http://tuckerreport.com/articles/mar...file-a-primer/
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Old Feb 17, 2010, 1:15am   #259
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

DionysusToast started this thread Good articles !
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Old Feb 17, 2010, 2:47pm   #260
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by montmorencyt2w View Post
This pot hasn't been stirred recently. Here is someone else who doesn't seem too enamoured of many of the conventional methods of analysis that traders use:

http://tuckerreport.com/articles/tra...d-what-doesnt/
Some of the article is good. It starts off well. Unfortunately it heads off and states some things as facts that are simply untrue.

e.g. The very best mechanical systems have about 30% winning trades, which is below the 50% that a coin flip will produce.

Ha ha. Well I can prove that's untrue using his own comments. He also states that But with proper money management, one could take a far from perfect trading approach, even the coin flip, and have a fair shot at making a profit over time.

Well, mechanical systems are excellent at cementing a solid money management system, so take a mechanical system, good money management, give it a 50/50 random entry, and according to him you'll have a good shot at a profit, which would mean considerably more than 30% successful trades. Hell, I could knock you up five different mechanical systems in half an hour that would all be 40% successful trades. That's easy.

So, good article, but suffers from the "I've never seen it so it must be untrue" bias that is plastered over this thread.
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