Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

This is a discussion on Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game. within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Trader333 Does this imply that Elliot Wave TA is capable of predicting that when a United States ...

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Old Jan 25, 2010, 1:49am   #169
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by Trader333 View Post
Does this imply that Elliot Wave TA is capable of predicting that when a United States President makes a speech that the content of it then causes the markets to fall ?


Paul
No - it's a coincidence.
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

Humphrey B Neill - 1931
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 2:12am   #170
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

DionysusToast started this thread
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Originally Posted by Prawnsandwich View Post
However, the main point of your arguments on this forum, which appear to be ever increasing in number, is that TA wont work without incorporating Fundamental Analysis is absolutely wrong, and your continued refusal to accept that there are many people making lost of money from TA trading is getting more and more irritating despite the evidence in front of you.....I would respectfully suggest that you undertake more research......
Actually - I agree with people making 'lost' of money from TA. That's the problem.

There are thousands of pieces of information that can be used to make a trading decision. I put them into 2 categories. Technical Analysis and 'Everything else'. The everthing else, I also call 'Fundamental Analysis'. A company coming to the end of it's lock-up period is part of fundamental analysis but has nothing to do with price-earnings, price-book, debt to equity etc. It is simply a moment in the life-cycle of the company where things change.

As far as tehnical analysis goes - there are 3 parameters that are generaly used and thousands of ways that these pieces of information are manipulated. Still - it's the same data.

- Volume
- Time
- Price

As far as 'everything else' is concerned we have
- market participant information
- scheduled announcement information
- insider activity information
- news
- company financial information
- company life-cycle information
- product release/approval/patent expiration
- industry information
- economic information (employment, inflation, interest rates, inventories, retail sales etc)
- index re-balancing

The list goes on & on (and to be honest, so do I).

Now - in a previous post,you stated that to use fundamentals you would have to effectively know everything about a company. This is very far from the truth. Depending on what you trade, you need to know different things.

Your state I 'categorise' information incorrectly. I see that as a compliment. My argument is there is no need to categorise information as all information is pertinent to making a decision regardless of which camp it falls into.

I would further add, that once you take a dogmatic approach and fit yourself into one of the camps and then defend it's pure use in denial of all other information, you have sealed your fate.

People do pure TA because it appears to offer a short cut. Then the short cut becomes a long route to nowhere.
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

Humphrey B Neill - 1931

Last edited by DionysusToast; Jan 25, 2010 at 7:21am.
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 7:19am   #171
 
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

DionysusToast started this thread One interesting point.

TA purists say that everything is built into price.
They will then say that of course you stand aside during earnings & economic announcements.
But apart from that - everthing is built into price.

So - even though technicians will admit that non-technical information is needed in the case of earnings/announcements, they refuse to believe that other non-technical information could be as much or even more useful.

Should we really expect to be rewarded by the market for taking big risk or should we expect to be rewarded for doing our homework ?
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

Humphrey B Neill - 1931

Last edited by DionysusToast; Jan 25, 2010 at 7:40am.
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 9:23am   #172
Joined Oct 2008
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

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Originally Posted by ccclarette658 View Post
For those tuned to the intent it is obvious in advance of the event.

Now has the chosen one to whom yesterday I imparted today's news not seen it verified today in real time, unfolding as anticipated all morning?

No public posting please.
If you wish to discuss do so by PM.

Hope you like it.

Last edited by ccclarette658; Jan 25, 2010 at 9:28am.
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 11:03am   #173
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
The markets would have fallen irrespective of any "Presidential Speech".
How do you know ?


Paul
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 11:19am   #174
 
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Joined Sep 2001
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
Actually - I agree with people making 'lost' of money from TA. That's the problem.

There are thousands of pieces of information that can be used to make a trading decision. I put them into 2 categories. Technical Analysis and 'Everything else'. The everthing else, I also call 'Fundamental Analysis'. A company coming to the end of it's lock-up period is part of fundamental analysis but has nothing to do with price-earnings, price-book, debt to equity etc. It is simply a moment in the life-cycle of the company where things change.

As far as tehnical analysis goes - there are 3 parameters that are generaly used and thousands of ways that these pieces of information are manipulated. Still - it's the same data.

- Volume
- Time
- Price

As far as 'everything else' is concerned we have
- market participant information
- scheduled announcement information
- insider activity information
- news
- company financial information
- company life-cycle information
- product release/approval/patent expiration
- industry information
- economic information (employment, inflation, interest rates, inventories, retail sales etc)
- index re-balancing

The list goes on & on (and to be honest, so do I).

Now - in a previous post,you stated that to use fundamentals you would have to effectively know everything about a company. This is very far from the truth. Depending on what you trade, you need to know different things.

Your state I 'categorise' information incorrectly. I see that as a compliment. My argument is there is no need to categorise information as all information is pertinent to making a decision regardless of which camp it falls into.

I would further add, that once you take a dogmatic approach and fit yourself into one of the camps and then defend it's pure use in denial of all other information, you have sealed your fate.

People do pure TA because it appears to offer a short cut. Then the short cut becomes a long route to nowhere.
Cracking good post DT !
You've clearly been around these boards for quite a while in some other incarnation but I'm struggling to think who you might be.
Anyway, your presence is certainly uplifting the quality of t2w.
Richard
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http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/a...ichard-joyson/
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Old Jan 25, 2010, 11:28am   #175
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Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trader333 View Post
How do you know ?


Paul
Everything is known in advance as everything is decided in advance.

I have some free time this morning as business was completed early owing to the conditions in force.

If you look closely at the American markets around the dates I mention in my post above you will see weakness. Put your attention on the charts until you see why the market is weak and this point and needs a correction. The markets corrected for a reason. News wasn't the reason. The difficulty people have in coming to terms with this is that it totally contradicts what the majority have been mis-educated to believe. If you put your attention on it very closely you may perceive that clever traders had already sold their long positions and were actually net short before the President spoke. When you are long you sell into rising prices.

It is far easier to look for an "external" reason to explain a piece of price action than it is to challenge yourself to find the explanation in the market behaviour. Hence the proliferation of news followers, signal services, etc. It also plays into the mindset of traders who avoid admitting to having made errors of judgment - the trade was right, it is that Big Bad President talking down the markets...

Unpredictable = not my fault for getting it wrong BUT
Unpredictable = I am gambling as I have no way of predicting when I will be right

The same faculties which allowed me to perceive the imminent drop in the US markets were used to correctly forecast the price action in the March FTSE Future yesterday evening. One member (who has always behaved properly, nudge) was given this information before the market opened today.

The collective membership here have had this demonstrated to them repeatedly in the past by two highly skilled traders. These demonstrations exist in the archives for those interested. Unfortunately the membership demonstrated by their collective conduct that they are not worthy to be shown anything of merit. Sadly this means that in the future the decent, polite, respectful, and open minded aspirants are denied the benefits.

None of this is nonsense. Those who open their minds and challenge themselves to aspire will benefit. Those who deny it is possible betray the limitations of their own ambition. It is sad when any individual abandons the quest to reach their full potential in favour of what they have been told they may achieve. What is criminal is when such people corrupt others by imposing their own intellectual and moral limitations, to the effect that newbies are denied the right to aspire.

I hope and expect this clarifies.
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