How did you move past it?

Technically Fundamental

Technically Fundamental

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Currently I'm quite bearish in the short term towards the indices and a few currency pairs but I'm starting to notice that when looking for set-ups in other markets I'm missing a lot of long set ups because I'm constantly concentrating on the short side.

Just wondered you guys did to overcome personal views on the market to concentrate on pa when started out.
 
Trade what is in front of you, not on hunches where you think the market might go. What is the market trying to tell you, listen to it.
 
Aaronmalins said:
Currently I'm quite bearish in the short term towards the indices and a few currency pairs but I'm starting to notice that when looking for set-ups in other markets I'm missing a lot of long set ups because I'm constantly concentrating on the short side.

Just wondered you guys did to overcome personal views on the market to concentrate on pa when started out.
Click to expand...

I echoe the above post, what is your bearish view based on? is it longer term charts/techs or a fundamental view? Other than intraday fundamental data releases if you are intraday trading you don't have to take a fundamntal view as there are plenty of technical oscillations in price both long and short. As stated in post above, trade what you see not what you think, the market cares less about what you (or any other trader) thinks.

g/L
 
I don't get it... Obviously, everything depends on your trading style, but still... Why would you ever want to overcome your personal views on the mkt? Do you consider yourself stupid?

Even if you're trading all the technical yada-yada, wouldn't it be advantageous to enhance this with a fundamental view? Personally, even if I am looking at a short-term opportunity, I would not enter, if it contradicted my fundamental view. Reason being that I know that I will be uncomfortable with the position and will likely stop myself out in the most suboptimal manner anyways.
 
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Even if you're trading all the technical yada-yada, wouldn't it be advantageous to enhance this with a fundamental view?
Click to expand...

That assumes it would be enhanced by such a view. A fundamental view could be wrong or stupid even. There is no reason to think that it would necessarily enhance your trading, unless you are good at understanding fundamentals and the effects they will have on the market.

Personally, even if I am looking at a short-term opportunity, I would not enter, if it contradicted my fundamental view. Reason being that I know that I will be uncomfortable with the position
Click to expand...
If you had an incorrect fundamental view then might feel too comfortable in a trade that you should be out of. And as you said, you will only trade with your fundamental view. So if that is wrong, you will continually make suboptimal trades.
 
As JRP 2891 suggests, trade what you see, not what you think.
As a TA swing trader, I apply some personal rules that help me in that field at least and some of them are below: these might apply here -
Trade with the trend - no trend, no trade
Plan the trade, trade the plan
When the signal comes, don't wait
A weak signal is still a signal

You've probably heard them all. First job every session is to see if there is a trend and get the direction right. I would emphasise that I have defined the signals I will act on and look for them and them alone every day: I always take a signal, never trying to second-guess it, but I might adjust position size if I think its a weak signal.

I never never read the market reports, nor watch Bloomberg or anything else like that. If you're a TA-based trader, journalists' ideas of what fundamentals are are a complete distraction.
 
Shakone said:
That assumes it would be enhanced by such a view. A fundamental view could be wrong or stupid even. There is no reason to think that it would necessarily enhance your trading, unless you are good at understanding fundamentals and the effects they will have on the market.


If you had an incorrect fundamental view then might feel too comfortable in a trade that you should be out of. And as you said, you will only trade with your fundamental view. So if that is wrong, you will continually make suboptimal trades.
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DUH! Obviously, any of my views can be wrong, whether they be fundamental, short-term, technical or whatever...

However, I consider myself a reasonably intelligent person. Or, let me put it differently, I consider my views (esp the ones where my money's on the table) to be correct unless either a) they are proven to be otherwise; or b) these views change as a result of new information. Hopefully, neither occurs or b) occurs before a).
 
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Aaronmalins said:
Currently I'm quite bearish in the short term towards the indices and a few currency pairs but I'm starting to notice that when looking for set-ups in other markets I'm missing a lot of long set ups because I'm constantly concentrating on the short side.

Just wondered you guys did to overcome personal views on the market to concentrate on pa when started out.
Click to expand...


Its only important to move past this if your personal views are not part of your trading strategy !!

if they are not part of the strategy then move past them !! if you cant then you have a BIG problem!

is this you issue ?
 
''Its only important to move past this if your personal views are not part of your trading strategy !!''

Thats a great line.
 
Martinghoul, I understand, but the OP said that he is missing setups (so not following his entry rules) due to a fundamental bias. So I fail to see how his trading is being enhanced (unless his entries are poor and he shouldn't trade in the first place :)).

Anyway, I agree with:

"If I am bullish...I am already in...Being bullish and not being long is illogical".

I have an idea of the trend, but the trend being up won't stop me going short if I think it is a good trade. And I don't like the idea of only trading in one direction because of a fundamental idea that
a)has a decent chance of being the wrong direction, because I'm not an expert in fundamentals
b)may take 2 years to play out, which doesn't help my trade today
c)the fundamentals could even change without me being able to observe the change
 
So here's my issue with this logic then (and I appreciate the fact that I am opening myself up to a proper sh1tstorm here)...

If I believe my fundamental analysis is somehow flawed, I have no confidence in my analytical capabilities. If I have no confidence in my analytical capabilities, why do I then have confidence in my technical/short-term setups? Aren't these products of my own analysis also?

Before you mention information asymmetry, it's not that, as both types of analysis are based on publicly available data.
 
Shakone said:
Martinghoul, I understand, but the OP said that he is missing setups (so not following his entry rules) due to a fundamental bias. So I fail to see how his trading is being enhanced (unless his entries are poor and he shouldn't trade in the first place :)).

Anyway, I agree with:

"If I am bullish...I am already in...Being bullish and not being long is illogical".

I have an idea of the trend, but the trend being up won't stop me going short if I think it is a good trade. And I don't like the idea of only trading in one direction because of a fundamental idea that
a)has a decent chance of being the wrong direction, because I'm not an expert in fundamentals
b)may take 2 years to play out, which doesn't help my trade today
c)the fundamentals could even change without me being able to observe the change
Click to expand...

This is exactly what I'm talking about.

"If I am bullish...I am already in...Being bullish and not being long is illogical".

I'm bearish so I keep looking for bearish entries. I suppose I just need to get over it and try to maintain a neutral attitude until the PA tells me otherwise.
 
Yes Martinghoul. I'm not entirely disagreeing with you, your point is not wrong, just perhaps wrong for aaronmalins. Two differences though that I noted. One is that if you are good at analysing fundamentals then it is reasonable that fundamental bias would enhance your trading. If you're not good at that, there is no reason it should (which was my original point in my first post).

The second difference is that you can see the price on the chart, but you can't see the fundamentals changing in real time. Of course they must change. Countries change, governments change, banking policy changes, wars erupt. A war might be close to breaking out somewhere right now. It hasn't gone off so we can't observe it, but the fundamentals have changed. That happens in real time, but the fundamental data is not released publicly in real time. Also, can you put a figure on it? Can you quantify a piece of fundamental data and say that it should rise 400 points because of that, and should go down 50 points because of that data etc. and so by the end of the month it should be up 350 points? Well I can't. Technical analysis is more quantifiable isn't it?
 
keano said:
I assume you only want advice from people who work in investment banking or at prop trading firms?
Click to expand...

I see my reputation preceds me.

Anyhew I'm not that much of a bell end any more. I've turned over a new leaf. Most people on here know more than me anyway.
 
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Shakone, I respectfully disagree...

To me, either I have faith in my analytical ability or I don't. If I do, I try to apply it to all aspects of the situation that may affect my trade. If I don't, I don't trade. Personally, I don't allow myself a cop-out of saying 'I'm just not good at that, so I'll ignore it'. That's my personal stance...

I also don't buy the other difference. Yes, fundamental factors normally have longer lags and different time horizons, but they still affect prices and some do so in real time. As to the difference in transparency, I don't buy that either. You have as much information about the next major institutional flow that can get you chopped as you have about the war.
 
Aaronmalins said:
I see my reputation proceeds me.

Anyhew I'm not that much of a bell end any more. I've turned over a new leaf. Most people on here know more than me anyway.
Click to expand...

Aaronmalins, what has happened? have you handed your login over to someone else.
Your sounding almost humble!!!
 
I've always been humble. I was just acting an ar5e for some reason. I think it was lack of sleep from chart watching lol. Or maybe I was being riled by t*ts. Whatever the reason I didn't join T2W to argue with people. Lost sight a bit.
 
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Note the unchanging spots....
 

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